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nj2va

March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

FWIW, since there have been some talk about ratios, I checked what the actual Kuchera ratio estimates were for DCA at each hour. It has us somewhere around 8:1 or 9:1 for most of the time, which seems somewhat reasonable if not a little bullish. It also has us around 7:1 right now. 

Adds a little validity to this map knowing that its not inflating our totals. 

 

Good post. The 2-3 hours before the flip (for those that do...like me) should be ripping pretty good. I haven't seen inch an hour snow for almost 14 months.

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The all important IAD 00z sounding.  Radar really picking up to our south.  SPC mesoanalysis shows the 925/850 temps holding pretty well.  925 temps even damming a bit.

00zIAD_031417.PNG

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Sitting in Hamilton just west of leesburg and the parking lot is finally starting to cave after 2 hours.  31 and coming down decent 

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Moderate wet snow, some BIG flakes, and half an inch on the car. Lawns are really whitening up, my driveway is white, and slush areas are building up on the roads and sidewalks.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FWIW, since there have been some talk about ratios, I checked what the actual Kuchera ratio estimates were for DCA at each hour. It has us somewhere around 8:1 or 9:1 for most of the time, which seems somewhat reasonable if not a little bullish. It also has us around 7:1 right now. 

Adds a little validity to this map knowing that its not inflating our totals. 

 

I noticed it drops the ratios quite a bit during the sleet, like 4:1 or there about. Still may be too high but far better than just assuming 10:1 regardless of anything. Maybe it assumes some kind of snow/sleet mix, not sure. 

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Just now, Sparky said:

HRR is crazy, I wouldn't even want that much.

Well get the snowblower ready, because you ARE going to get it, possibly even more than that!

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