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nj2va

March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

2,321 posts in this topic

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Post your nowcasting/obs in this thread. For us along 95, this will all come down to nowcasting.  

20 in McLean. That's colder than the models said it would be near this time, so I'm assuming that's good news for the storm

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Made it to 18 last night so 3 degrees below forecast. Too bad 850 temps dont work the same way. Lol

Will be interesting to see how quickly temps boost after the sun comes up. This time of year we can always exceed max high forecasts even when starting this low. 

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42/40

 

About to go all Tenman here but if temps warm too much today before the clouds get in I will know what will fall later on.  Anything above 45 IMBY will be a killer.  I know what everyone will say about dews and so on but I know my climo.  4" will be tops when it is all over.

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

42/40

 

About to go all Tenman here but if temps warm too much today before the clouds get in I will know what will fall later on.  Anything above 45 IMBY will be a killer.  I know what everyone will say about dews and so on but I know my climo.  4" will be tops when it is all over.

You're not Tenman until you use the barometer only. 

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16° at home right now, with a dewpoint of 8°

high yesterday was 34, 32 on Saturday. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You're not Tenman until you use the barometer only. 

if Quebec gets to 30.96 and the snow breaks out in Oak ridge, TN then DC will see glaciers

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

if Quebec gets to 30.96 and the snow breaks out in Oak ridge, TN then DC will see glaciers

One thing I will say is that the chilliness of this airmass is pretty impressive for March 13th. We'll see how high we all get today on the thermometer. Would be pretty painful to see 48-52. 

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Just a friendly reminder to please put banter in the appropriate thread. There is now a storm related banter thread

Mods will still be hiding/deleting posts as necessary as we get closer to the event, in this thread and the model/discussion thread. 

Thanks!

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

I see HRRR being discussed, here's the latest:

 

HRRR killed in the historic snowstorm last year.

It was a much easier forecast, though - no r/s issues, just a question of whether it was going to be one feet, two feet, or three feet.

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and i'll make the same request(hint) here.  No need to post the HRRR every hour that it runs.

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5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I see HRRR being discussed, here's the latest:

 

HRRR killed in the historic snowstorm last year.

 

fLJlpW0.jpg

it was mentioned in the model/disc thread, but please do not post the HRRR every hour it updates. Most here know where to find it. A general description is good if something seems out of sorts however. 

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22 at my house this morning. I will take this and the airmass we have had for the last 3 days leading into a March storm chance over what we had for snowquester. Gives us a fighting chance anyway in the cities to hold frozen longer, maybe.

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Work (Arlington): 27, dewpoint 12 back at home in balmy Southern MD: 29, dewpoint 15.  Expect that those few degrees difference holding through will make a big difference in this storm.

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This airmass is legit, whatever happens. Single digit dews and upper teen/low 20s temps is certainly better than the alternative we've had many times.

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