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March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs


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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:



Temps dropped almost 2 degrees in the last hour. A few other nearby stations are observing this. Any of you?

I haven't been looking much, but it's been increasing here in Rockville. It was 35 at 11:50 and now it's 38. 

EDIT: As I was typing, my local station was 38.3 and then dropped to 38.1, so temps might be dropping. 

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Sitting at 35 at house in Germantown. I like the trends I'm seeing on short term guidance. HRRR is still at range, so I wouldn't go too indepth on Precip type at this lead past 8 hours. It will likely mix in the cities and just off to the west, but how much and how long is the question. As Bob pointed out, it's a good thing to see HRRR too warm at this time. High clouds streaming in should cap highs to another 1-2 degrees. Lots of low to mid teen dews across region as well. Definitely a great sign leading in.

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surface temps are important for accumulations in general, but may not have too much impact on the warm nose upstairs from the atlantic.  that's what i'm concerned about the most.  either way, it's nice that we have cold air leading into this.  i'm at 33 and 11 in columbia which is an incredible air mass for a mid-march storm.  we sleet during the big ones as well.  93, 96, even 03.  we've always been a fringy snowtown with big storms bumping up the averages of what is mostly not a very snowy town.

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

These trends need to reverse now. 

Back on topic - This airmass would have even been passable for a winter storm in February. Pretty neat to see it on the way into a wintry event around our area. 


this is about the best we're gonna do here for a big storm in mid-march.

the radar is very jan 2000-esque with that fetch of atlantic moisture.  i can see why we'd have a hard time not flipping to sleet during the height of this storm.


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