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TSOWxWizard

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About TSOWxWizard

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    Ice Grandmaster
  • Birthday 05/09/1989

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    Male
  • Location:
    Rose Hill, VA

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  1. TSOWxWizard

    Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc

    Flurries in Rose Hill (Alexandria, VA) just south of the beltway.
  2. TSOWxWizard

    March 13-14 Storm Nowcasting/Obs

    If you think the 00Z HRRR has high QPF take a look at the 00Z RAP. Spits out crazy QPF totals of over 3"+ liquid DC and NW. Silly RAP.
  3. TSOWxWizard

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    DCZ001-VAZ051>054-502-070600- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.170107T0600Z-170107T1800Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- 459 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SNOW ON ROADS WILL RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
  4. TSOWxWizard

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    RGEM only out to 18 hours on pivotal weather but you can already see what will make the difference for the rest of the run. Look how it sharpens the vort and check out the much higher heights over our neck of the woods.
  5. TSOWxWizard

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    NAM change: (obvious caveats).
  6. TSOWxWizard

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    MDZ013-014-070315- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.170107T0800Z-170107T2000Z/ PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- 212 PM EST FRI JAN 6 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SNOW ON ROADS WILL RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. && $$
  7. TSOWxWizard

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    Here are the last 5 runs of the 12 km NAM total precipitation between 03Z Saturday and 03Z Sunday.
  8. TSOWxWizard

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    Not so much the totals but the upper air support is what is slowly changing. The jet is becoming more favorable for lift over the southern and eastern portions of the form. Its a process, another step in the right direction.
  9. TSOWxWizard

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    Comparison of UKIE 12Z left to 00Z right for pressure and height ; 00Z left to 12 Z right on precip. Looks sharper with the trough and about 3 mb deeper and further northwest. Good trend continues on this morning runs. Continues to keep the vorticity maximum stronger and continues to keep us interested.
  10. TSOWxWizard

    Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

    Testing this for posterity sake but the difference between the 00Z and 12 Z Canadian. The Canadian overall may not have been much of a shift but noticed early on that it was stronger with the vort out west, which if it continues to keep that stronger, longer, then it will eventually come around.
  11. TSOWxWizard

    March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II

    No...noo...noooo. I change my mind, back to cold!
  12. TSOWxWizard

    February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting

    Started taking hourly measurements at 8 p.m. tonight. About a half mile east of St. Charles Town Center. Lots of pixie dust, the rimmed snow and then a nice period of dendrites. Since the snow is slacking off I am heading to bed. Here are the hourly totals: 8 pm : 2.25" 9 pm : 2.85" 10 pm : 3.45" 11 pm : 3.85" 12 am : 4.25" 1 am : 4.6" 2 am : 5.3" 3 am : 6.1" 4 am : 6.6"
  13. TSOWxWizard

    February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting

    2.25" in Waldorf so far at 8 pm. Picked up around 3/4" in the last hour.
  14. TSOWxWizard

    February 16th-17th Obs & Nowcasting

    First flakes in Waldorf, MD.
  15. TSOWxWizard

    Mid FEB through March Threats/Snow Storms

    You all are really a depressing bunch. A few runs of models and everyone jumps ship. Lest we forget that a lot of times its a few runs of models that show something good for us only to have it shift back to what it was showing previously, which is usually a Boston storm and mess us over. We are in the period of time the models are usually the least accurate. The actual shortwave energy for this system is still over the North Pacific and what is being sampled is the Sunday system that created this change. If we are to believe that the models have been overcompensating for the cold all year long during the 4-5 day time frame what is to say this is any different? It has been consistent but in weather there are no absolutes. It is very possible that this does stay south. But at least lets use sound meteorological knowledge and not gut feelings. In this business that will burn you more than not. Now, personally, I do think this has some correction back to the North. Whether its enough for DC/Balt or not is yet to be seen. That will be determined as we get closer. If it doesn't I will find it personally ironic that my home back in Georgia, which I moved from to here in July, is about to get more snow than the area I am in now has all year long.
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