Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

[Orangeburgwx]

 

National Weather Service Columbia SC 503 AM EST Tue Jan 3 2017

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence in the long term period remains low on details but the
00z GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement with a potential winter
storm over the Southeastern States. However significant timing
issues remain. Both models show an amplified upper trough over the
eastern CONUS into the weekend with a modified Arctic air mass
over the area. Temperatures likely well below normal over the
weekend. Confidence high on that point. Moisture streaming
southeast from the Intermountain West and Great Plains to the
lower Mississippi Valley by late Friday. Low pressure developing
in the Gulf of Mexico tracking northeast across Florida...possibly
a favorable storm track for winter weather. Cold air appears in
place Saturday and the predominate precip type is snow given
partial thickness and sounding profiles. Raised pops to chance
Friday night and Saturday with potential for accumulating snow
during a portion of the period. Clear late weekend into early next week but cold.

[WNC_Fort]

6z looks good for parts of the deep south, not as good for WNC and the Piedmont. 

 

Trends in the GFS have been far from great for many in NC

[UpstateSCBud]

Toss the GFS. All hail King Euro!

[FallsLake]

6z is great for Atlanta, central SC, and the NC coast.

 

[FallsLake]

You beat me to the punch west. Not overly concerned yet since the euro did better. We can hope for a little NW trend or a stronger storm; but must face the reality that this is a possibility (still one of many). 

[mackerel_sky]

GFS trending yesterday's Euro, last nights Euro, trending towards yesterday's GFS!

[FallsLake]

7 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

The energy that's going to be our storm will be arriving in the west coast today right?, that's what I heard.

There was discussion yesterday about if this was even relevant any more in terms of better data collection (with satellite data etc.). But one of the mets chimed in and said it still was. We could still be in for more shifts and surprises (good or bad).

[Poimen]

Going back to its 0Z Mon run, the GFS has since been trending SE with each run. Meanwhile, the other guidance has shifted NW overnight (speaking of course of the eventual SE system). So when should we expect the GFS to begin its NW trend? Tonight? Tomorrow? 

[packfan98]

The 6z GEFS is much improved over 0z.  I think most of us would cash out with this.  Shows lots of love for much of Georgia, and almost all of SC, NC, and VA.

[strongwxnc]

Thanks for the disco last night gents! I went out before the 00z GFS.. Great discussion!
And yes pack ^ I would cash out here in get foothills!


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[franklin NCwx]

The 0z para was a better run than the 0z op, not nearly the 18z blockbuster but a winter storm.

[Brick Tamland]

Wow, the Euro came on board! Every model showing a good storm here. Euro and GFS seem to be flip flopping with each other. Seen that before.

[HKY_WX]

00z Euro was the first run showing true seperation of this wave coming in through the split-flow out west. That allows it to amplify in the southern plains/MS valley and get the GOM involved. Now that he GFS solution over the past few days isn't on an island, this becomes much more interesting. If the 12z euro is on board, we are in business for at least a minor to moderate event in NC.

[mackerel_sky]

I know a lot can change, but sitting at 3-4 days out, and not having cold be a concern, is a good feeling

[BullCityWx]

0Z Euro OP seems to be a far outlier amongst its ensemble members, at least around here.

[Jon]

00z Euro was the first run showing true seperation of this wave coming in through the split-flow out west. That allows it to amplify in the southern plains/MS valley and get the GOM involved. Now that he GFS solution over the past few days isn't on an island, this becomes much more interesting. If the 12z euro is on board, we are in business for at least a minor to moderate event in NC.

Good to see you posting man!

Mets are going to come screaming out of the woodwork today to mention the potential, that's how much that Euro run matters. Hopefully it holds on 12z. I'd like to see the EPS pick up some larger snowfall members, last nights op is all alone on totals. We should temper expectations until then.


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[HKY_WX]

3 minutes ago, Jon said:

Good to see you posting man!

Mets are going to come screaming out of the woodwork today to mention the potential, that's how much that Euro run matters. Hopefully it holds on 12z. I'd like to see the EPS pick up some larger snowfall members, last nights op is all alone on totals. We should temper expectations until then.


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Thanks, the GFS busts so often in these scenario's if the EURO is not on board. Hoping we see the 12z fall in line this afternoon.

[SeVa]

17 minutes ago, Jon said:

Good to see you posting man!

Mets are going to come screaming out of the woodwork today to mention the potential, that's how much that Euro run matters. Hopefully it holds on 12z. I'd like to see the EPS pick up some larger snowfall members, last nights op is all alone on totals. We should temper expectations until then.


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Just looking through EPS. You're correct, absolutely ZERO support for OP, but I don't know how useful the lower resolution ensembles will be at this timeframe with this nuanced setup.

[strongwxnc]

11 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Thanks, the GFS busts so often in these scenario's if the EURO is not on board. Hoping we see the 12z fall in line this afternoon.

if not a full agreement at least some. Would be good to see if the EURO bites one way or another on the stream interaction or lack thereof. 

[shaggy]

MHX is starting to get on board with some snow for us.

 At least now both models show a
coastal low moving along the SE coast. Specific forecast details,
ptype and amts will hinge on the eventual track and strength of
the surface low. The 00z GFS is slower and weaker than the
ECMWF...while the 00z ECMWF is now developing a much stronger low
closer to the coast. The GFS depicts a much colder solution for
most of the period across ENC while the ECMWF is wetter and
slightly warmer...especially along the coast. CMC shows snow
chances inland, with mainly rain along the immediate coast, then
possibly transitioning to all light snow as it exits late Sat.
Made slight adjustments to previous forecast...increased pops Fri
night and Sat...and adjusted ptype based on latest guidance.
Confidence regarding exact ptype and amounts is low at this time,
but thermal profiles and critical thickness values support snow
chances inland and rain/snow mix along the coast. Accumulating
snow will be possible across the area, with best chances along and
west of Hwy 17.
 

[CaryWx]

24 minutes ago, SeVa said:

Just looking through EPS. You're correct, absolutely ZERO support for OP, but I don't know how useful the lower resolution ensembles will be at this timeframe with this nuanced setup.

This makes me wonder if the 12z euro op can hold up.  No ensemble support from last nights run cannot be good.

[Cheeznado]

it has actually been pretty remarkable how consistent the EPS has been with almost every run for several days showing about half of the members with a minor-moderate semi-supressed event. . This, combined with the fact that a slim majority of the GEFS members show a mainly moderate storm, which is similar to the GGEM ensembles lead me to continue in my forecast of some snow, anywhere from nuisance to a couple-three inches, at least here in GA. Slightly better chance of a complete suppression than a really significant snow (4" plus). Chance of what the GFS showed yesterday AM- that is enough WAA to get ice here- is quite low IMO.

 

 

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

This makes me wonder if the 12z euro op can hold up.  No ensemble support from last nights run cannot be good.

Well a good number of EPS members show a 1-3" event.  Better then the 0z...we know the Op run can get a little amped.  Good to see the 6z GFS very close to something bigger.  

[superjames1992]

The 06z DGEX has backed off, FWIW, and looks similar to the GFS (not sure a model the "caliber" of the DGEX belongs in this thread, but whatever).

[mackerel_sky]

3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The 06z DGEX has backed off, FWIW, and looks similar to the GFS (not sure a model the "caliber" of the DGEX belongs in this thread, but whatever).

It Bares watching! Waiting on the new NAM

[CaryWx]

7 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The 06z DGEX has backed off, FWIW, and looks similar to the GFS (not sure a model the "caliber" of the DGEX belongs in this thread, but whatever).

Lake effect snows on the northeast side of  the GL's?  What kind of windage is that??

[downeastnc]

When MHX starts calling for snow more than 48 hrs out you know its close to a sure thing to at least see some snow.....the model trends are perfect really the GFS will tick back NW over time and the Euro will lock in as its usually has it handled 72 hrs out.....could be the first real big snowstorm for the SE in a long while. My local point and click has this

 

Thursday Night

A chance of rain before 1am, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 45.

Friday Night

A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

[griteater]

Getting different looks out west with the wave interaction, but nice seeing a similar result over the SE.  Same looking trough (amplitude/tilt), but 06z GFS is just a little south of the Euro from last night so it's colder and farther south with the sfc low track.  06z GFS sfc low track is a textbook track for snow from Macon to Columbia.

Just a note that the Euro is 3 hours faster with the wave so that's why you see the timestamp difference

[FallsLake]

11 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

The 06z DGEX has backed off, FWIW, and looks similar to the GFS (not sure a model the "caliber" of the DGEX belongs in this thread, but whatever).

Don't like this (and GFS) but we have to except this possibility. Euro was great but did not have support from EPS. At this moment I would have to give equal weight to a more eastern solution. Big runs today (as usual).  

[SnowGoose69]

24 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

it has actually been pretty remarkable how consistent the EPS has been with almost every run for several days showing about half of the members with a minor-moderate semi-supressed event. . This, combined with the fact that a slim majority of the GEFS members show a mainly moderate storm, which is similar to the GGEM ensembles lead me to continue in my forecast of some snow, anywhere from nuisance to a couple-three inches, at least here in GA. Slightly better chance of a complete suppression than a really significant snow (4" plus). Chance of what the GFS showed yesterday AM- that is enough WAA to get ice here- is quite low IMO.

 

 

The only time recently I recall the Euro Op being this out of sink with the EPS was the busted January 2015 blizzard in NYC.  The Op Euro did not start caving until 48 or so hours out and it was gradual.  That was a very complicated setup though.  This is much more simplified, so I'm surprised to see the differences.