Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: And all of a sudden GSP will love/hug the GFS while dismissing the more northern/stronger CMC/UK/Euro. Entertaining to watch. I feel like this is somewhat typical of GFS, only to have it grow more ominous as we approach game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 It's really a nice deep south setup...great winter storm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yep it's a congrats Macon/Augusta/Columbia run...not a heavy event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Any chance of GFS suffering from any sort of convective feedback issues with that blob over the gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Yep it's a congrats Macon/Augusta/Columbia run...not a heavy event though Ya nice around these parts. My guess it will be a but stronger tho and a little.NW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Any chance of GFS suffering from any sort of convective feedback issues with that blob over the gulf? There's just no amplification with the wave on the GFS....it's one run of many. Ensemble members show various scenarios of more squashed vs more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks to Jackpot Wilmington with around 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Good run for New Bern area, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 And now it starts to go further and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Well the deep south has really suffered the past few years with little to no snow.. I wouldnt be too upset if the GFS verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If I recall correctly, NC was in the same boat with the Christmas storm of 2010. It wasn't until about 2-3 days out one model latched onto a phase thus bringing the system back to the North quite a bit turning a non event into a big event. I know it has been harped on but I think we won't know if there will be a phase until it is properly sampled. Just seems that in the past that has usually been the case. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 ME LIKE: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Deep deep south set up, very interesting. This could be one for the record books for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 UKMet is more amped than GFS, like it was on last run. Sfc low across N FL on UKMet vs C FL on GFS.....UKMet looks similar to its last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Brick Tamland said: And now it starts to go further and further south. Well 6z and 12z GFS were almost identical so getting some model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: There's just no amplification with the wave on the GFS....it's one run of many. Ensemble members show various scenarios of more squashed vs more amped starting to get into the time frame where this starts ticking NW a little at a time, from my experience. Just now, wncsnow said: Well the deep south has really suffered the past few years with little to no snow.. I wouldnt be too upset if the GFS verified Just now, Cheeznado said: ME LIKE: This will start a NW movement most likely, starting to get into that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Number of times in the years I've been on this board (and the old Wright Weather days) when the GFS showed a suppressed system that ended up trending north: Lots. Number of times in the years I've been on this board when the GFS showed a system too warm/north and it trended south: Never. People: this is where you want to be if you live in ATL/GSP/CLT/RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I like where the GFS is right now. It seems to me that it didn't shift any further south this run, unlike the past 4 runs, which is good news. If the other models hold this suite and the GFS starts trending NW over the next few runs, I'd be very happy. That said, if I'm going to miss out on a storm, I'd rather it be due to suppression. At least that means somebody with even worse chances of seeing snow is getting a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: ME LIKE: Lol Atlanta would be shut down for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: UKMet is more amped than GFS, like it was on last run. Sfc low across N FL on UKMet vs C FL on GFS.....UKMet looks similar to its last run Happen to have any images? Or qpf production Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Generally speaking, when the GFS has LP tracking across central FL at this lead, it usually turns out well for the NC crowd. We'll see, but I would expect it to eventually come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, AirNelson39 said: If I recall correctly, NC was in the same boat with the Christmas storm of 2010. It wasn't until about 2-3 days out one model latched onto a phase thus bringing the system back to the North quite a bit turning a non event into a big event. I know it has been harped on but I think we won't know if there will be a phase until it is properly sampled. Just seems that in the past that has usually been the case. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk This is my feeling exactly. Correct me if i'm wrong, but I have never seen a 500mb vort map like that play out in reality. The two SW's wont phase as much as the GFS is depicting and the second wave will have greater amplitude. I find it extremely hard to believe a LP realistically takes that path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Well 6z and 12z GFS were almost identical so getting some model consensus. The only model consensus is from run to run of GFS and that hasn't really been that consistent. UK much further north and stronger. Euro stronger as well as CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wouldn't be surprised if the "Golden Axis" sets up along a band from Atlanta to Athens to lower Upstate to Charlotte to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks like the CMC more or less held too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: ME LIKE: Selfishly I woukd.love that to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Wouldn't be surprised if the "Golden Axis" sets up along a band from Atlanta to Athens to lower Upstate to Charlotte to RDU. I'm aware its not terribly unusual in classic snow setups for ATL to be to far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Cmc looks a blend of euro and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Wouldn't be surprised if the "Golden Axis" sets up along a band from Atlanta to Athens to lower Upstate to Charlotte to RDU. NW trend puts us in he jackpot. Rarely we end up on the northern edge with time to kill before the event. Looks good for ATL but we all know how fast the carpet can be pulled from underneath us. E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Looks like the CMC more or less held too. Post a map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.