deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Getting different looks out west with the wave interaction, but nice seeing a similar result over the SE. Same looking trough (amplitude/tilt), but 06z GFS is just a little south of the Euro from last night so it's colder and farther south with the sfc low track. 06z GFS sfc low track is a textbook track for snow from Macon to Columbia. Just a note that the Euro is 3 hours faster with the wave so that's why you see the timestamp difference Great compare maps Grit!! Ty...ya, 6z gfs is almost ideal here...but I do like that the euro did come in better...could be a bit too juiced? don't know...EPS doesn't support it very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The only time recently I recall the Euro Op being this out of sink with the EPS was the busted January 2015 blizzard in NYC. The Op Euro did not start caving until 48 or so hours out and it was gradual. That was a very complicated setup though. This is much more simplified, so I'm surprised to see the differences. I am a little surprised as well to not see more op support from the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yesterday people were nervous saying they wanted the Euro on board. Now the Euro has a big run and people get nervous because the GFS went south more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Yesterday people were nervous saying they wanted the Euro on board. Now the Euro has a big run and people get nervous because the GFS went south more. When it comes to snow in the south, it seems anything will make people nervous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Interesting look at the last few runs of the GFS and the trend that is occurring...hopefully it keeps trending that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Preferred model by Mets: Which shows the least They arent paid to wishcast, they are paid to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Morning all. Been away for way too long. One thing I haven't seen mentioned is the models tendency to weaken 5h shortwaves often too soon as they swing through the main flow. Have the newer model versions corrected for this? Or is this observation more apt for vort maxes in a different setup than we're tracking here? Liking my chances here between Atlanta and Athens. Only a slightly sharper and slower trough would be ideal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Thanks Delta. Some more stuff. Here's the 06z GFS Ensemble. On the right side of the image (spaghetti chart), the white line is the operational run, and each ensemble member is represented by the colored lines. In southern TN, you can see that the operational run was a little bit on the southern edge of the envelope of the ensemble members. Then with the second image, you can see the various outcomes with some farther north tracks and a few squashed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Interesting look at the last few runs of the GFS and the trend that is occurring...hopefully it keeps trending that way. What are you thinking? Deeper trough with a possible bigger storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: What are you thinking? Deeper trough with a possible bigger storm? The energy over MI peninsula trending SW could allow for a phase once it hits the coast and we're talking Miller A. This would turn the eastern parts to rain but would amp up the precip influx quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CoreyandFrosty said: Hey everyone! I am new here. I couldn't not join while watching this thread. Really liking the look of this upcoming storm Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoreyandFrosty Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Thanks WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: The energy over MI peninsula trending SW could allow for a phase once it hits the coast Thanks Wow! Lots of moving parts with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Although there are some differences this setup does remind me of the Christmas storm of 2010... At 500 mb it does look a little similar... It was a late phaser as well http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Is the Thursday threat still on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Already NAM at 16 has the northern stream energy over the Great Lakes stronger and more westward, with a closed contour. Does this bode well in people's opinions with what has been talked about here just recently with Miller A setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Can someone post the individual ensemble member snow totals from the 6z GEFS please? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: They arent paid to wishcast, they are paid to be right. Well....... Then there's JB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Already NAM at 16 has the northern stream energy over the Great Lakes stronger and more westward, with a closed contour. Does this bode well in people's opinions with what has been talked about here just recently with Miller A setup? Main thing is the shortwave kink dropping down thru E Alberta and Saskatchewan. We don't want that trending west...we want it to separate and get out ahead of the wave off the Oregon coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 hours ago, griteater said: Where is Cold Rain?....we have snow on the Euro before 1:30. He sleeps too much Just got up. Thanks for turning the Euro around, if even just for one lonely run! Do you guys ever sleep? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Just got up. Thanks for turning the Euro around, if even just for one lonely run! Do you guys ever sleep? We sleep next week, ha 7 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Can someone post the individual ensemble member snow totals from the 6z GEFS please? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Main thing is the shortwave kink dropping down thru E Alberta and Saskatchewan. We don't want that trending west...we want it to separate and get out ahead of the wave off the Oregon coast Out to 26 s/w out of Canada is somewhat weaker, hopefully down the line here that will translate to something positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Hey y'all!! I'm from the MA forum but I saw WoW kind of bring up the northern stream disturbance and wanted to add to what I saw on last nights 0z GFS and Euro runs. What I'm about to post is for MA, but the last 2 paragraphs shed some light on things that could interest you. ........……… "Wave 2 then comes into the picture with not much change in regards to the energy ejecting off the Pac coast. The more sheared look is probably the correct solution with all guidance now shying away from the consolidation scenario, which ultimately affects the chances of wave 2 bombing out and really hammering away into where most our forum resides. However, Euro is showing the wave ejecting across the SE with low pressure developing off the NC/SC coast and moving to the northeast, providing a pretty substantial snowfall for the southern MA. Looking at H5, the energy of question actually improved its look when ejecting out of the Rockies compared to 12z with a bit more amplified look. This gave the room for our wave to increase in intensity a touch and develop a storm a bit further to the north with better intensification along the NW side of the low. In return, a better low, plus increased energy across the upper levels allowed for the development of a secondary max of precip across NE NC up into the eastern Delmarva. This was all as a result of the strength of the energy moving in from out west and also slower in progression due to the trough axis being closer to a neutral tilt instead of a positive like the 12z run. Another point of emphasis is the positioning of the baroclinic zone after wave 1. Judging the two runs, the boundary looks to be a touch further to the NW on the 0z run than at 12z which is the point of emphasis others have made in the past. Models have been overdoing the cold push into the east once past Day 4/5. If the baroclinic ribbon left behind from wave 1 is a bit further to the NW and H5 trends were to remain at least similar with regards to better energy ejecting from the Rockies, the development of the coastal low could, in theory, form a bit more to the NW, leading to a better chance of precip expansion into the DMV. Now, I'm not suggesting a full latitude change in heavy snow axis we see hitting NC and eastern VA into the Metro's but maybe the NW quadrant of the QPF shield expands back to give the area a modest snow event on the order of 2-5"as far west as maybe the Fall line with 1-3" out toward I-81. That would certainly be better than nothing with the current depiction. Our coastal areas I feel are best chance to really score something significant in the evolving pattern as the positioning of the low and orientation of the trough could give them a better chance of an intensifying QPF shield as the low bombs out on a NE trajectory. Someone, if all comes together, could be in 6-12" with locally more due to the type of banding structures you would see with this type of low development. This was shown as a possible outcome from the Euro this evening, so will see if we continue to get a little more umph on the ejected wave 2 once past the Rockies as this is a must in order to get any significant low to form and come closer to the coast. The 0z GFS and the Euro were actually in decent agreement with regards to the strength, and orientation of the 2nd wave ejecting out of the Rockies. The real difference comes in 2 areas; the height pattern along the east coast after 1 and the handling of the northern stream energy to the north of the Great Lakes heading into the weekend. The SE height field is slightly heigher with the Euro as the GFS brings lower heights further to the south with the cold push for Friday and Saturday. This is in due part to the handling of that northern stream energy. The Euro is a bit more robust with consolidating the energy, so it leaves it further to the NW of the Great Lakes and is slower to advance east as a result. This leaves the height field a bit higher ahead of the incoming energy, so that helps the low be a bit more to the NW and closer to the coast as well. The GFS doesn't consolidate the energy and hold it back, leading to the height field falling quickly further to the southeast, in turn, shoving the baroclinic zone further to the southeast as well when translating to the surface. That forces the low to develop offshore, the H5 trough to remain positively tilted, and for the system to be weaker and further away from the coast leaving absolutely no room for improvement for the area. I would watch that northern stream system closely over the next few days and see how the models evolve that feature because if that energy can hold back and lower the heights for the MA and SE, that could play dividends on the system getting anywhere close to here. Just my 2 cents on the matter. If anyone has anything to add, let me know." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Thanks for the GEFS maps Grit! It looks like there are 11 with a major storm and 10 with little to minor events. Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM still trending the northern jet slightly westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: NAM still trending the northern jet slightly westward. Not good,right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: "Models have been overdoing the cold push into the east once past Day 4/5. If the baroclinic ribbon left behind from wave 1 is a bit further to the NW and H5 trends were to remain at least similar with regards to better energy ejecting from the Rockies, the development of the coastal low could, in theory, form a bit more to the NW, leading to a better chance of precip expansion into the DMV." Thanks for the write-up Millville...quoted above is always a concern for us down here...that is, that the entire height pattern shifts north some prior to go time (i.e. northern stream not pressing down as far and Pac wave lifting north a bit), a common model bias at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Gfs ensembles look good for north Georgia. Lots of good events in there. The number of whiffs is concerning though. Looks like a legit 50/50 chance. All or nothing type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not good,right? Not if you want a return to yesterday's GFS runs. Good news is the SE Canadian low is trending SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Thanks for the write-up Millville...quoted above is always a concern for us down here...that is, that the entire height pattern shifts north some prior to go time (i.e. northern stream not pressing down as far and Pac wave lifting north a bit), a common model bias at range No problem. It's certainly been a trend we've seen in the MA so what happens to us ultimately could affect you guys. I do believe someone will get a decent snow out of this, but the jury is still out on who. I like east of Raleigh up to the southern Delmarva for this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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