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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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Surprised there has not been a thread started yet for possible wintry scenario between Thursday and Saturday of this week. Up until today, models were a little more aggressive, but even though they backed off a tad today, the that remained in the three main global models. Let's keep the fingers crossed!

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Things get very superstitious round these parts.

What I haven't told anyone yet is that winter in NC started going to crap when I started lurking here a few years ago. I moved here about ten years ago from FL and we'd already gotten to the Christmas snow of 2010 before I found out (later) that winter wasn't a guarantee here. So I started reading forums. And I broke winter. Sorry.

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Things get very superstitious round these parts.

What I haven't told anyone yet is that winter in NC started going to crap when I started lurking here a few years ago. I moved here about ten years ago from FL and we'd already gotten to the Christmas snow of 2010 before I found out (later) that winter wasn't a guarantee here. So I started reading forums. And I broke winter. Sorry.


My uncle lived his adulthood life in Chicago. After retirement, he moved to Oak Island. It was sometime back in the 80's. His first winter there, they got 17 inches dumped on them. I always hoped the snow just followed him here but ole mother nature smashed that theory very quickly!

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1 hour ago, John Seivers said:

 

Surprised there has not been a thread started yet for possible wintry scenario between Thursday and Saturday of this week. Up until today, models were a little more aggressive, but even though they backed off a tad today, the that remained in the three main global models. Let's keep the fingers crossed!

Sent from my VS990 using Tapatalk

 

We usually like to see a threat within 3 or 4 days before we start a thread. If it can find a way to trend worse it will. One thing you will learn living here, is that winter weather in the Carolinas is strange to say the least. We have cold air damming that can turn a rain event into a freezing rain disaster. We also have the lee side trough that can turn a nuisance snow event into a major winter storm. The mountains to our NW can have huge implications on storm track and cold air delivery. That's why folks are so superstitious about creating winter storm threads. We like to see the "whites of their eyes" first.

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We usually like to see a threat within 3 or 4 days before we start a thread. If it can find a way to trend worse it will. One thing you will learn living here, is that winter weather in the Carolinas is strange to say the least. We have cold air damming that can turn a rain event into a freezing rain disaster. We also have the lee side trough that can turn a nuisance snow event into a major winter storm. The mountains to our NW can have huge implications on storm track and cold air delivery. That's why folks are so superstitious about creating winter storm threads. We like to see the "whites of their eyes" first.


I have been in the triad my entire life so I am well aware of the science it takes for us to get lucky. I usually don't start talking about it this early, so let's hope that it breaks the bad luck!

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4 minutes ago, John Seivers said:


I have been in the triad my entire life so I am well aware of the science it takes for us to get lucky. I usually don't start talking about it this early, so let's hope that it breaks the bad luck!

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In all fairness, you didn't have a location posted, you didn't give a solid reasoning for why you thought the threat would come to fruition, and you only have a few posts. I figured that you were new to this area.

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14 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

In all fairness, you didn't have a location posted, you didn't give a solid reasoning for why you thought the threat would come to fruition, and you only have a few posts. I figured that you were new to this area.

Hey....no worries and I thought my location was in there.  I am always using tapa, so didn't realize it.  I updated it for future references.  I am definitely not a trained meteorologist, but I do study it anytime I can.  Honestly, I am typically a "follower" of you guys.  It is always great keeping up with the threads leading up to significant weather.  I usually do not post much except for obs.  Honestly, I am not sure what came over me to drop this thread on you all.  Could be the kid in my 41 yr old body...or could be the boredom of watching this one sided playoff game at the moment !  Either way, no harm intended for you all. 

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3 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

Well keep it up and you are going to start getting burned badly. I wish threads were only started by red taggers and not the gen pop. You are a nobody.

 

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Wow, that's not very nice.

It's ok.  I obviously stepped on some little toes.  I got tough skin for nobody haters.

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2 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

Neither is jinxing my snow. I take that very seriously. If he was at another table in a restaurant with me and I overhead him creating hype threads...

Lol

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2 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

Neither is jinxing my snow. I take that very seriously. If he was at another table in a restaurant with me and I overhead him creating hype threads...

 

Starting a thread has no bearing on what will or won't happen. The weather will do what it's going to do whether we start a thread early or not. Calling someone a nobody is also out of line. 

 

The 00z runs tonight will be important but especially the 12z runs tomorrow once more of the shortwaves are sampled. There will be two waves it appears, one Friday morning and another Saturday into Sunday. 

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3 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

Neither is jinxing my snow. I take that very seriously. If he was at another table in a restaurant with me and I overhead him creating hype threads...

I really hope you're not serious.  I can start tossing out warnings real quick.

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We don't control the weather. The weather controls us. 

 

Anyways. Looking at the NAM so close to phasing early on. I am getting a very December 2010 feeling for some reason. 

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3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

We don't control the weather. The weather controls us. 

 

Anyways. Looking at the NAM so close to phasing early on. I am getting a very December 2010 feeling for some reason. 

Yeah, been thinking the same thing that last couple of days. 

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Lol, just the entertainment of the thread makes up for the party foul. 

No phasing please, and no Christmas 2010, highly overrated imo.

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Lol, just the entertainment of the thread makes up for the party foul. 

No phasing please, and no Christmas 2010, highly overrated imo.


Hopefully I have helped to further enhance your New Year's! I promise no more party fouls in the future.

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6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

We don't control the weather. The weather controls us. 

Ain't that the truth!  

Amazing the lack of sleep for some this upcoming week staying up for the ECMWF.   And some awake automatically from deep sleep like clockwork at ECMWF time.

Maybe we should ask for 3z and 15z runs!

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