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snowlover91

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About snowlover91

  1. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Chuck always posts a bunch of stuff like this. Just look at his December prediction for the mid-Atlantic area. He said the cold the models showed wouldn’t verify and everyone would be AN. Instead those areas finished solidly BN during his timeframe, as did the SE. A 588 or 594dm HP isn’t unheard for this time of year in the SE.
  2. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    IMO outside of the mountains, winter is done in the SE. The overall pattern the next 10 days is typical Nina for February with cutter after cutter and the cold confined in Canada. Also, ensembles agree that the cold will head back to Siberia and stay through through the end of the run. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a cool March like in recent years but snow chances are pretty much done based on what models indicate happening the next 10 days.
  3. Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

    For freezing rain it all depends on rates and temperatures. If it’s 30-32 and rates are light you can get a good bit of accrual but if rates are heavy and temps marginal then very little will actually freeze. The 3km nam seems to indicate heavy rates so I would say less than a tenth for most.
  4. Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

    When it comes to CAD or any in-situ events, the NAM is typically one of the better models for handling things. There is just too much WAA in this event, marginal cold to start, weakening HP sliding OTS and a bad low track that quickly erodes any weak wedge that forms. Western NC might see a burst of snow to freezing rain as this starts but that's about it IMO.
  5. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Yeah just like that above normal pattern you predicted for December even though models said it would be BN and it verified BN like the models showed... all these crazy conspiracy theories of yours are just that... just saying.
  6. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Temps will drop as the 925mb low slides east. It's sitting just to your south hence the warmer boundary layer temps there. Was very well modeled....
  7. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Key is what RGEM shows as it has led the way... NAM is one step behind it on this storm.
  8. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    I'm well aware of what's going on and things are going according to plan. RGEM had a sharp cutoff and low ratios across Wake county, specifically the SE part where you live. It had the highest totals of 4+ to the west which is where they are. It's going exactly as modeled when you follow the one that has led the way with this storm, the RGEM.
  9. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    The only model showing that was the HRRR which is notorious for being too warm and is terrible with temps, especially in the long range of the model. The 3km NAM and RGEM had the right idea with temps.
  10. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Don't look now but NAM has Eastern NC getting hit as hard or harder as the coastal develops...
  11. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Short term inside the 8 hour mark the HRRR is fairly good with depicting banding and heaviest qpf. Rap is okay but not great IMO.
  12. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Things are going exactly as modeled, give it time the temps will crash soon enough. You will see 4-6" easy as qpf is forecast to be around .8 to 1" per HRRR and temps are going to crash next few hours.
  13. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    Yes and happens every storm too. A widespread 3-6” snow is about to start for most of NC and people are using 18hr HRRR temp maps as if they’re accurate lol.
  14. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    It was the 3km and 12km NAM. The NAM is money with warm noses. It shows none here so we are good. Normal panic before the storm starts, people need to relax here.
  15. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    It’s all snow for you and dropping 6-8” across your area and temps are plenty cold aloft and at the surface.
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