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snowlover91

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  1. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    Checking soundings and ignoring those clown maps would give you a much better idea what it’s showing As of right now it’s a nice cold rain for RDU so you should be happy with that!
  2. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    Nam has actually consistently outperformed other models for our various events this winter and spring. It’s by far the best model inside 60 hours.
  3. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    It may fall at that ratio but accumulation is a far different story. If it is a daytime event, the sun and warm ground temps will eat the snow pretty quickly and really slow accumulations. Euro inched north some with more of a warm nose at 850mb layer as well which is concerning.
  4. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    Try this https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018040212/north-carolina/snow-depth-in/20180407-1500z.html Basically, similar setup with a nice snow for Central and Western NC with mixing issues for eastern areas. Quite a bit of ice/sleet due to warmer upper levels/warm nose.
  5. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    It certainly would be highly unusual for April, which I mentioned in previous posts. My caution is directed towards those who are new to this board or not aware of how snow maps work. A lot of people look at a map, see 10" or whatever it shows for their backyard, and expect that or close to it. The 12z runs have been a disaster for this system as well. The CMC shows a frontal passage, GFS came north, German was a cutter into the Ohio Valley with thunderstorms... not good trends to see.
  6. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    You’re missing the point and context of the discussion. People are going crazy over the 10:1 snow ratio maps and thinking one that shows 10” means they’ll see that much on the ground. It’s not a realistic expectation due to the factors mentioned.
  7. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    Yeah GFS is pretty cold but Euro is much warmer, especially the southern half of NC. It has temps 34-36 for most of the snow event before later dropping to 30-32 by night. 925mb temps are -2 to -4C and 850s hover between 0C to -2C depending on location. A shift 100 miles north on the Euro and you get more of a CMC solution, GFS is the cold outlier for now. Also remember that if this falls during the day, the high sun angle and warm ground temps will do a number on the accumulations even if surface temps are at or below the freezing mark.
  8. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    GFS and CMC has been showing this system off and on for about a week now and now Euro is on board. If we get some consistency and models all lock in inside 120 hours on a snow threat then that will be a pretty big deal. Key is getting in range of the NAM and seeing how much of a warm nose we might be dealing with.
  9. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    Keep in mind that in April things like the sun angle, warm ground, marginal temps all will cut down on snow ratios. When you consider those factors I would say this time a year a good rule of thumb is to cut the 10:1 chart numbers in half or so to give a better estimate. Still, 3-5" of paste would be nice for Charlotte and especially April. Until we get in range of the NAM and better consistency from models though I will be skeptical, takes a perfect combo of timing and cold to bring this scenario and very little wiggle room.
  10. snowlover91

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    Euro tells the crazy GFS to move over and one ups it...
  11. snowlover91

    March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

    HRRRX model at 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z on there usually has it out to 36 hours. It’s experimental though so take it FWIW. For those wondering about the NAM temp difference, it’s due to a slower onset of clouds and precip allowing for more warming.
  12. snowlover91

    March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

    Experimental HRRR for 2am Sunday. Take it with a grain of salt but worth anazlying to see how well it does.
  13. snowlover91

    March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

    ARW-2 is incredibly bullish for the system, as is the ARW. Here is the ARW-2 output at 10:1, I would cut these totals in half to one-third to get a more realistic idea based on it being a heavy wet snow, but still impressive with 1-1.5" of qpf falling.
  14. snowlover91

    March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

    That's the higher res version of the RGEM, basically like the 3km nam is compared with the 12km version. It's pretty good and better than the RGEM from what I've seen this year. At this range I would recommend people not look at the 10:1 ratio maps and use Kuchera then cut the totals in half to get a realistic expectation. Ratios will be low due to this being a wet snow, add in compaction, temps right at or above freezing and you don't have a recipe to get anything close to what the 10:1 maps are putting out. Ratios will be more like 3:1 to 6:1 for most.
  15. snowlover91

    March 24/25 Overrunning Disturbance

    Never know, NAM hasn’t locked in on a solution yet and RGEM 18z run appeared a good bit further south than the nam. Let’s see what 00z runs hold.
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