FallsLake Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Hold the phone, 1041 mb near Ohio valley, another wave in TX, might get the ice storm a little after Christmas, wedge should set up in next few frames!? That's what I'm seeing. Anyway this run ends up we have many days of model tracking coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Hold the phone, 1041 mb near Ohio valley, another wave in TX, might get the ice storm a little after Christmas, wedge should set up in next few frames!? If it doesn't cut.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, FallsLake said: That's what I'm seeing. Anyway this run ends up we have many days of model tracking coming up. May still get our Christmas miracle ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: If it doesn't cut.. I'll take a Miller B, better than 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 So in summary our Christmas temps will likely be somewhere between 30 F and 80 F and somewhere between bone dry and wet. Glad we cleared that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 There's been many a good ice storm in CAD areas from Miller B's. Give me some good fresh arctic air under a good high in the northeast and I'll take my chances. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 One thing to note, CAD events ALWAYS trend colder as the event approaches. To see one depicted this far out is a little worrisome that we may not have lights on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 So for this particular run it shows some ice for northern NC on Christmas Eve before it warms some and changes everything to rain. As I said before this still has potential and we got some model watching coming up. Many things on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: Not sure what more we could ask for outside of snow guns parked in the street on Christmas eve. Climo, and more importantly my gut instinct, say dont buy into this quite yet. Any idea if that HP is sticking around for a few days? Climo said hell no but we still got plastered with 9-10” from the storm last week. Snow is still on the ground 6 days later. Anything can and will happen. Lots of signals a big storm is in the works. If it’s not the SE someone nearby will get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 No shortage of moisture, the entire run looks ninoish! If we could just get cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Very intrigued with the Christmas possibilities... It appears that as long as we can get a storm to eject out of/off the southwest bowling ball we will at minimum be looking at a significant ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 That's some serious HP coming down after xmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 5 hours ago, WarmNose said: 2 days in a row the GFS has shown a CAD signature out in La La Land. The SER would be no match to a 1040+ HP parked to our Northeast Never bet against the willpower of the SER! It may very well take that 1040 high behind the woodshed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 20 minutes ago, Wow said: That's some serious HP coming down after xmas... W/ that pacific setup, one of these HP systems will eventually slide into the picture. Timing the subtropical jet is the hard part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 If only we had a negative nao. It would almost be a Dec 10 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 GEFS supports long term SER. Slides the cold west then up over us to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Just asking but why would you drop years?Are you wanting to get a satellite era report. 30's was some of the hottest decades but they keep adjusting the temps down to make it look cooler. I'm pretty sure they always do a 30-year average for climate normals updated every decade. So the only thing that would matter is 1980s vs. 2010s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: GEFS supports long term SER. Slides the cold west then up over us to the north. And the EPS, and the GEPS, and the . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said: And the EPS, and the GEPS, and the . . . CMC doesn't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said: Never bet against the willpower of the SER! It may very well take that 1040 high behind the woodshed! Even with those huge anomalies doesn't really support a huge torch. Those anomalies are compare to how things have been this month vr average . Even with that map showing that jet stream doesn't really reflect it. 2m temps at that timeframe show near normal to below normal depending on you location. East of the Apps shows well defined CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: CMC doesn't! Good point, eh. That model did really well with the last storm along with the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I think models are reversing a recording breaking 10mb PV displacement that happened in November, swinging it too far north on the other end. The Stratosphere warming happening now at 10mb further supports a different 500mb pattern than what medium-long term models are showing, and probably more of a +PNA configuration. I think cold will make it all the way to Florida by the last week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 See, there you go. SSW already pushed Chuck down into our forum. Seriously, thanks for dropping in Chuck and giving the update. Timing might be really good for our climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/12/14/more-places-than-normal-may-have-a-white-christmas-this-year-across-lower-48/?utm_term=.88964658d4bc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The SE ridge will most likely test our nerves. A lot of waffling back and forth with timing on the ens which probably means it's going to take longer to get rid of than we want. The good thing about the SE ridge this time is its happening in conjunction with a really stout -epo. Big cold will be in north america versus other times where north america is getting blasted with pac maritime air....and we only go from very warm to less warm when fronts clear.lol Luckily all ens guidance agrees that the mean trough axis moves eastward over time so we can see the way out. The big question is timing. When it happens it should be abrupt and open the door for winter wx for both our regions. Before that happens it looks like the best shot at anything will be a cad/overunning type of deal. Looks like a possible epic ice storm setup down the line a piece. Lower Midwest seems to be favored for now but it's over a week out and a lot of things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Thanks for the analysis Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 42 minutes ago, CaryWx said: See, there you go. SSW already pushed Chuck down into our forum. Seriously, thanks for dropping in Chuck and giving the update. Timing might be really good for our climo. Now all we need is a recurving typhoon and we'll be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Hr 216 of the 00z GFS, Christmas miracle incoming? 1034 HP over NE and a wave in the Gulf... Looks like Dec 8 redux. Likely more supressed but I'm over analyzing LR GFS anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 GFS has a Jan 31-Feb2 1996 look to it. That was the period of a large overrunning ice/snow storm for the SE. One of the more dramatic winter-storms I have ever experienced. Christmas time frame definitely has a lot of potential. Whether it comes together is questionable. Trends are important over the next few dys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Canadian has joined the party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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