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buckeyefan1

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

2,289 posts in this topic

The heart of winter is about to begin as we say goodbye to 2016 :D   Let's keep this on topic and the banter in the several threads dedicated to whining, moaning, complaining, and cliff diving.....you know......where it belongs <_<

 

 

Oh yea.....yay ridge :( 

814temp_new.thumb.gif.f8967b5802e7f47052ab38729c606c46.gif

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48 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Why was a new thread created. The other was a week old??

Eh, I don't see much happening before 2017 so I agree with it.  Plus, the thread was getting cluttered with "banter" as some could say.

Anyways, aren't those CPC maps auto-generated?  I know they sure do change a lot.

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7 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Eh, I don't see much happening before 2017 so I agree with it.  Plus, the thread was getting cluttered with "banter" as some could say.

Anyways, aren't those CPC maps auto-generated?  I know they sure do change a lot.

They are auto-generated on Saturdays and Sundays, but generated with forecaster input Mon-Fri

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That op run of GFS was ugly.  Keeps the SER almost entire run and almost no winter threats at all.  Maybe it's not turning around.  One run sure but it would fit the theme this far.  The SER has the hot hand.  

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That op run of GFS was ugly.  Keeps the SER almost entire run and almost no winter threats at all.  Maybe it's not turning around.  One run sure but it would fit the theme this far.  The SER has the hot hand.  

I guess you missed the SER being beaten down around the 4th and the big trough around the 8th. It's up and down. I actually thought it kept the SER beaten down better this run. Sure no fantasy storms but those do no good anyway. I thought it looked a lot better than the 18z but it's just a matter of perspective especially when you are looking for a perfect pattern.

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0z EURO wasn't too awful after D8. Broad low heights across the CONUS with some possible mischief spreading east from the Rockies with high pressure overhead.

Wish it went out further a couple of days. :lol:

EPS loses the broad trough after D12 as the low heights retreat to the far NW as blocking dwindles and higher heights return to the southeast. So again, up and down. Only persistent cold stays out west for the next two weeks or so.

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0z EURO wasn't too awful after D8. Broad low heights across the CONUS with some possible mischief spreading east from the Rockies with high pressure overhead.

Wish it went out further a couple of days. [emoji38]

EPS loses the broad trough after D12 as the low heights retreat to the far NW as blocking dwindles and higher heights return to the southeast. So again, up and down. Only persistent cold stays out west for the next two weeks or so.


much Improved vs 12z. keeps the SE BN pretty much days 10-15 especially in NC. higher heights does not always mean AN temps,

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Yeah but the Brazilian Meteogram shows Atlanta getting around 8" of snow this winter and DC only 4" (tee hee), would be great if that happened! Personally I will wait for the Bolivian Meteogram before I get too excited because right now it does not look all that great for Jan. :rolleyes:

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As mentioned the 12z EPS is thrown out based on the weeklies and now confirmed by the latest 00z EPS run. It holds the block over the top longer. No fantasy storm but they may just be on our doorstep as the GFS is showing waves day 10-12ish, and Jan 7-11 time period seems the time to watch. Remember guys day 10 verification is very poor so just hang in there. Threats could disappear Day 9 and reappear day 5. Pattern supports at least a chance within a 4-5 day window


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2 hours ago, bhamwx205 said:


much Improved vs 12z. keeps the SE BN pretty much days 10-15 especially in NC. higher heights does not always mean AN temps,

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

I know, but I'm looking at storm chances as opposed to cold chances, and we're not getting a winter storm in that pattern. (verbatim) But apparently the weeklies looked much better so we'll see how it shakes out.

 

1 hour ago, Jon said:

As mentioned the 12z EPS is thrown out based on the weeklies and now confirmed by the latest 00z EPS run. It holds the block over the top longer. No fantasy storm but they may just be on our doorstep as the GFS is showing waves day 10-12ish, and Jan 7-11 time period seems the time to watch. Remember guys day 10 verification is very poor so just hang in there. Threats could disappear Day 9 and reappear day 5. Pattern supports at least a chance within a 4-5 day window


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Did you ever figure out what the deal was with the initialization date? I saw where you tweeted Ryan Maue.

.
.
And alright! Fantasy storm on the always entertaining 6z GFS on D10. Some accumulation for northern NC with a beautiful storm track from the FL panhandle off the NC coast. If we could knock a couple degrees off those temps, we could get most of NC in play.

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threat still showing, need a little more cold air for nc to be in the game and need the lp a bit south, but not a bad look at this range.  another threat on the heels of this as well.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_35.png

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some serious cold in the LR.  and the trajectory is a bit different with a more SE component.  January is not dead and to be punted just yet.  I mean heck its not even January yet

 

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Incredible look on the 12zgfs. Nice blocks and the conus gets sent into the icebox. You can't get a more favorable pattern progged imo. Lot of details to be resolved micro climate wise. But it's looking highly likely late the first week of January some SE posters are gonna be in the game for winter precip.

5h maps are thing of beauty 

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And even at the 384hr you can see some serious cold headed SSE.  puts all of S Canada from east to west in the icebox.  with a nice 1058HP moving SE with temps nearly -50.  nice run for an op.

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It was a better run of the GFS. Plenty of cold to the NW that tries to bleed SE. I like the strength of the highs. 

Even if the pattern does not change, you would think as those highs to the north get stronger (as we head towards mid winter) we would get better CAD setups.

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anything approaching 1060mb is impressive.  Get that over upstate NY and watch the fun.  CAD from hell.   I am sure we will see some ups and downs with the runs until then but the theme is emerging that something is cold is coming for almost everyone.  we shall see 

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21 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

threat still showing, need a little more cold air for nc to be in the game and need the lp a bit south, but not a bad look at this range.  another threat on the heels of this as well.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_35.png

We'll definitely have to watch this but the big issue is there's no initial cold air in place. These type of systems have worked out in the past but not very often. I'm a little more interested in the time period afterwards.  

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that looks acceptable.


go check out the individual members. 100 percent an acceptable run lol

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Definitely looks like a good 2-4 day stretch, but by the end goes back to ridge city. Looks like it may not have staying power.

Then again, at that point, we're talking 300+ hours out so...


Yeah , the ensembles all were showing a massive SER for next week and we see how that's trending . like you said 300+

but then again we are not to next week yet either , so could still blow up in our face

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3 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Definitely looks like a good 2-4 day stretch, but by the end goes back to ridge city. Looks like it may not have staying power.

Then again, at that point, we're talking 300+ hours out so...

it wont be ridge city.  if that actual look becomes a reality it will be one artic high after another for the LR.  but that's the big if.  that pattern has to materialize as advertised. 

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53 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

anything approaching 1060mb is impressive.  Get that over upstate NY and watch the fun.  CAD from hell.   I am sure we will see some ups and downs with the runs until then but the theme is emerging that something is cold is coming for almost everyone.  we shall see 

1060 highs are very rare, in the US, I believe!? The 1899 February outbreak, that had flurries to MIA, was a 1062 I believe! Very rarified air there! But not impossible!

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