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MichaelJ

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    Clemmons, NC

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  1. Yes and just should keep things on perspective as to just how much we understand about our Atmosphere, not much. There are so many variable parameters that have to be collated into a cohesive solution and that does not even include the myraid of things we don't even know yet about our stochastic atmosphere
  2. If the NAM amps this up again tomorrow, a lot of folks in the Triangle are going to get a LOT of sleet and ZR. However it is the NAM12K and I will wait for the 3K before I say it is likely to happen
  3. Here is a good map of the reach of this CAD
  4. I strongly disagree with this. IMO the Triad proper will see much more sleet and much less ZR because of the CAD keeping the 850's at or below freezing during the entire event.
  5. Here is te latest projection for my area, mostly sleet it seems http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/current/KGSO/prec.png
  6. Guys, the RGEM is almost always overdone on the temps and amount of qpf so I would disregard it for the present. Same goes for the 12KM NAM, use the 3KM because of it's higher resolution hones in more on the 2meter temps. The 3K NAM shows Triad mostly in the 31-33 temp range during a lot of the storm
  7. Sorry Dave, just now saw this. I base it on the Nina history, the indices look to be turning against us in late Jan ( AO becoming positive, PNA going neutral to negative, MJO heading into the warm phases and the NAO going pretty neutral and the EPO going positive)
  8. Guys be careful wishing for Feb/March, both look to be mild to warm right now (which is typical of Nina's) so stay focused on Jan as it might be the only chance we have
  9. I think eyewall's map will end up being pretty darn close. Here at my weather station this morning it was 23.6 at 5:55AM
  10. I would start moving away from what the 12K NAM shows and start paying serious attention to the 3K NAM from now on
  11. Guys that is only until 7:00 PM saturday
  12. In W-S off Stratford Rd we have 3 inches and 26 degrees with moderate snow falling.
  13. Look at the HRRR just posted, not very impressive outside the mountains
  14. Everybody needs to remember the Global models don't do as well this close to an event, rely more on the HRRR and Nam for now time
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