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MichaelJ

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    Clemmons, NC

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  1. MichaelJ

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Guys that is only until 7:00 PM saturday
  2. MichaelJ

    Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    In W-S off Stratford Rd we have 3 inches and 26 degrees with moderate snow falling.
  3. Look at the HRRR just posted, not very impressive outside the mountains
  4. Everybody needs to remember the Global models don't do as well this close to an event, rely more on the HRRR and Nam for now time
  5. MichaelJ

    Winter 17-18 Speculation

    I think the Jamstec is going to be close to what we actually see this winter. Then again long range forecasting is sort of like betting a bundle on a horse you have inside info on only to learn he was scratched just before the race.
  6. MichaelJ

    Winter 17-18 Speculation

    I think we will have a rather boring winter, not really cold and not real warm, probably slightly above normal. We VERY seldom have cold winters with a La Nina in this part of the country and I don't see that changing. If anything, I think it will be slightly above normal for a La Nina based on the -QBO and the persistence of the high pressures ridges that have been forming in the western Atlantic. Doesn't mean we can't have wintry precipitation a couple of times if the timing is right but I don't think we will have a lot to track this season
  7. MichaelJ

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Very good info here
  8. MichaelJ

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Bastardi put up a video where he says that Irma will likely fall to a 4 tomorrow but increase back to a 5 in the Fla. straits and go sub 900MB before hitting Florida. He also thinks Jose will turn westward and make an impact too, only on a much smaller and weaker scale than Irma.
  9. MichaelJ

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

    I think it will depend entirely on where the warmest water sets up. If right off and connecting to S. America, go with door #1, if west in the 3.4 region, select door #2. Of course there will be other factors in the teleconnections which will help determine the intensity of the warm or cold outcome, but the basic tenor will be set by location of warmest waters (as well as the relative strength of the Nino)
  10. MichaelJ

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

    So far for January with one day left, W-S will have the 25th warmest January on record.
  11. MichaelJ

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

    I think for the vast majority of people on this baord, winter type precip is a very unlikely event the rest of this winter unfortunately. For those in Tn, NC (north of 40 and west of 85) and Southern Va. there is still a decent chance but everybody else looks very doubtful, I hate that but it is what it is, hopefully I am wrong.
  12. MichaelJ

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

    Agree with this totally. When (sometime likely in the next 5 years) the AMO goes negative, to go along with the PDO in a negative phase, is the most promising condition for winter type weather in the SE. If you can find the graphs for both Decadal Oscillations online, you will see the correlation between the phases of the AMO/PDO and our winter season
  13. MichaelJ

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

    A 1003 followed 300 miles by a 1007 low? Not likely
  14. MichaelJ

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

    Don't want to get to far out ahead here but with the AMO cooling and the PDO cooling possibly as well, the results should be advantageous for more cold next winter. To go along with that, it appears we could be headed for a weak El Nino also this summer and the placement of the warmest stretch of water will largely determine how cool or cold it gets, all other things being equal. There are so many weather inducing factors involved it is impossible to accurately project that far in advance but some prleiminary signals are positive for us. This year seems to be headed for a close to normal temperature regime for much of the SE with the coldest period being later in the winter. Good signs are appearing for a cold Feb possibly extending even into March and the timing of any storms will be the key in our getting any snow storms or just some cold but liquid precipitation.
  15. MichaelJ

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

    Anybody relying on an OP run or even one set of ensembles might as well be on crack. Also why anyone uses the CFSv-2 is a mystery to me
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