Jonathan Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 41 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I'm surprised no one has mentioned the indices. The AO looks to fall through the floor through January. The nao looks to try to go negative as we get close to mid month which is a great trend. You're right. The AO just freakin' TANKS. Almost approaching -6 on one of the ensembles. NAO not quite as impressive, but still looks neutral-negative. PNA...well...no lol. BUT we do have ONE lonely ensemble member that spikes the PNA into positive territory! MJO just looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 CMC, not on board! Fropa on the 5th, no precip in sight on the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 CMC, not on board! Fropa on the 5th, no precip in sight on the 6th.who cares it's on board Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 12z euro was setting up for something special Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Still feeling really good about early Jan. for an decent overrunning event with the PV setting up over SE Canada and a -NAO building in. If the PNA can nudge into neutral-positive territory, would allow for something more by giving the s/w some room to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 59 minutes ago, bhamwx205 said: 12z euro was setting up for something special Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk And has been for the past week to ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 And has been for the past week to ten days. no it hasn't . not at all Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 hour ago, bhamwx205 said: 12z euro was setting up for something special At work doing year end close out; can anyone post a map I can quickly look at? Too busy to get into my weather archive this afternoon! Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: At work doing year end close out; can anyone post a map I can quickly look at? Too busy to get into my weather archive this afternoon! Thanks in advance! Don't worry, still no snow for you! Lol! There was a threat for you possibly on the 360 GFS 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just an observation : the ridge on the west coast is way too far offshore. That has the potential to throw a major wrench in what otherwise would be a very good pattern to get a score out of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 At work doing year end close out; can anyone post a map I can quickly look at? Too busy to get into my weather archive this afternoon! Thanks in advance!check your pm Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Just an observation : the ridge on the west coast is way too far offshore. That has the potential to throw a major wrench in what otherwise would be a very good pattern to get a score out of. The -NAO says hello and would keep many in the SE forum in the "game". The ridge where it is would allow wsw flow for an overrunning event somewhere in the southeast. It's a very good look. The biggest balancing act would be the strength of the SE ridge. Too little and it's a dry flow. Too much and it's more a rainy one vs. snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The -NAO says hello and would keep many in the SE forum in the "game". The ridge where it is would allow wsw flow for an overrunning event somewhere in the southeast. It's a very good look. The biggest balancing act would be the strength of the SE ridge. Too little and it's a dry flow. Too much and it's more a rainy one vs. snowy. Trof orientation would be incorrect for a big storm. Looks like the path of least restiance for the cold would be to dump in the SW and Midwest. Jmo but the fact we have a model even in the ballpark is encouraging. One other feature that is missing is a 50/50 low signal. Again JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Trof orientation would be incorrect for a big storm. Looks like the path of least restiance for the cold would be to dump in the SW and Midwest. Jmo but the fact we have a model even in the ballpark is encouraging. One other feature that is missing is a 50/50 low signal. Again JMO. The line of heartbreak would be sharp in that scenario...that's the prob with overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Trof orientation would be incorrect for a big storm. Looks like the path of least restiance for the cold would be to dump in the SW and Midwest. Jmo but the fact we have a model even in the ballpark is encouraging. One other feature that is missing is a 50/50 low signal. Again JMO. We can always agree to disagree. I'm not looking for a big storm, but that doesn't mean a long duration overrunning event can't provide what most in the southeast would consider a BIG storm (3-6 inches). The trough in the west is needed to turn the flow from the west southwest. There is a 50/50, albeit displaced a bit west of its traditional position, courtesy of a piece of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: We can always agree to disagree. I'm not looking for a big storm, but that doesn't mean a long duration overrunning event can't provide what most in the southeast would consider a BIG storm (3-6 inches). The trough in the west is needed to turn the flow from the west southwest. There is a 50/50, albeit displaced a bit west of its traditional position, courtesy of a piece of the PV. Overrunning is a different beast if you have the blocking. Its the only time you want -PNA to turn the flow like you said. Too much turn though and it's curtains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 12z eps looks great Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 eps is a thing of beauty for sure. just had to start up my wxbell subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, bhamwx205 said: 12z eps looks great Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk That's what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Check out the Ptype on Day 10 12z Euro....southern storm coming our way. All snow in TN but sliding out waySent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 16 minutes ago, Jon said: Check out the Ptype on Day 10 12z Euro....southern storm coming our way. All snow in TN but sliding out way Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Is there a good wedge signal showing up for us!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Overrunning is a different beast if you have the blocking. Its the only time you want -PNA to turn the flow like you said. Too much turn though and it's curtains This is true. Only way it works is if the PV is displaced south to keep the cold air hanging around while the WSW flow moves up. The sfc low itself is weak and doesn't have the room to deepen and turn north but it brings a broad swath of precip as it moves across the south. It's been a long time since we've had a significant overrunning snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaredcohen Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Can anyone give a highlight reel for the 12z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Is there a good wedge signal showing up for us!? Just have the 850 map. Not a real CAD look but it looks like the cold would not be pushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 It's always a day 10-12 storm that never seems to materialize or if it does it's never what first was there. Don't get excited to much untill it's day 1-2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Taking this model verbatim, the freezing line moves up from parts of upstate SC in hr 216 to around the NC/SC line at 240. So depending on the 2m temps, looks like parts of upstate SC sees a snow-to-mix/ice event. The cut off would be fierce north to south. That is just massive CAD that won't be dislodged easily. This is an NC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 It's always a day 10-12 storm that never seems to materialize or if it does it's never what first was there. Don't get excited to much untill it's day 1-2! it's the pattern which gets rolling late this week. who cares about specific threats. the pattern is what's important . let's be honest, there is still plenty of time for this pattern to go wrong and screw us all Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 29 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Just have the 850 map. Not a real CAD look but it looks like the cold would not be pushed out. That's a really impressive look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Don't shoot the messenger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 9 minutes ago, Poimen said: Don't shoot the messenger... Surprisingly....snowy analogs...62, 68, 05, 71, 04. With that strong a poleward AK ridge cold gets dumped down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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