Poimen Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: Surprisingly....snowy analogs...62, 68, 05, 71, 04. With that strong a poleward AK ridge cold gets dumped down. Thanks, I was wondering how some of those years stacked up in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Looks like this run lost the negative epo. The whole run looks jacked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Agree with pack. That AK ridge if to be believed presents one heck of a wedge up there that will push hard on the cold dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: Surprisingly....snowy analogs...62, 68, 05, 71, 04. Pack, Can you give me a link to look at the regional snow for those years (preferably not just for NC, and by month)? I can get temps and precip, but cannot find precip type. Thanks for any assistance! Best, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 first threat on 1/6 isnt quite cold enough, the event after that one is a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 A huge change from 12z to 18z. We will have to see f it's a hiccup or trend. Either way I'm riding the euro and eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Pack, Can you give me a link to look at the regional snow for those years (preferably not just for NC, and by month)? I can get temps and precip, but cannot find precip type. Thanks for any assistance! Best, Phil You have to register to get access to this one...it's free. Once you get access follow the sceeenshot below. http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ I also use this one but for NC only. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 That day 11 fantasy system would make most of us happy. Here's to hoping we can get something similar within a 5-day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Looks like this run lost the negative epo. The whole run looks jacked up. no its the Atlantic side it's screwing with this runSent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: A huge change from 12z to 18z. We will have to see f it's a hiccup or trend. Either way I'm riding the euro and eps. Yeah that wasn't very happy hour. This could still all be a dream and the pattern we want never materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 GFS doesn't have -NAO but does have blocking over the pole. See what it's ENS say in 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: GFS doesn't have -NAO but does have blocking over the pole. See what it's ENS say in 20 mins. Which sends the whole thing in the toilet. Last 6 hours was fun though. GEFS will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: You have to register to get access to this one...it's free. Once you get access follow the sceeenshot below. http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/CLIMATE/ I also use this one but for NC only. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database.php Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 GFS doesn't have -NAO but does have blocking over the pole. See what it's ENS say in 20 mins. 18z GEFS says forget about that. Too fast to move the -NAO out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jon said: 18z GEFS says forget about that. Too fast to move the -NAO out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk You blink on the GEFS and the NAO is gone...does make sense, the ensembles tried this in early Dec and it didn't pan out. But, EPS has been bouncing around run to run. It's similar to EPS in PAC but a train wreck in the Atlantic. Model wars are always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 That's ok, it will change the next run, 18Z GFS always does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 9 minutes ago, MichaelJ said: That's ok, it will change the next run, 18Z GFS always does It did, and so much said .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Watch the 0Z run, it will be different if the GEFS is right. Looks a lot different than the OP 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Big changes from 18z to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Big changes from 18z to 00z. And for the better. 500 mb looks much improved so far out to 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: And for the better. 500 mb looks much improved so far out to 168 Yeah I agree. Looks almost like a cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I agree. Looks almost like a cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 It's definitely better if you wanted to see the SE ridge beaten down. Our biggest concern in this pattern may be suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: It's definitely better if you wanted to see the SE ridge beaten down. Our biggest concern in this pattern may be suppression. We here in my area of SC want it shoved South across North Central FL to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 JB thoughts tonight on the cold! Quite frankly the Euro is all in for a severe coast to coast outbreak, the US models have cold feet. ( they are cold, but they really hold it back. Its now mid winter and we have no 6 month blow torch to erase.. time for the cold to come. Naturally it will be worse in the center of the nation, but the easts cold will be stronger longer than the December cold was.. And to me the extremity of a year like 1985 is on the table this upcoming month. We did break some records from 83 in the central plains, and that was another bathtub slosh year On a side note, it appears the Parallel is not all its cracked up to be, and while the colors are pretty, the euro skill scores still dominate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Suppression is not necessarily a bad thing at the 200+ range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 GFS has a winter storm across the south Jan 7-8. Looks kind of wonky how it dives the shortwave southeast, but whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: GFS has a winter storm across the south Jan 7-8. Looks kind of wonky how it dives the shortwave southeast, but whatever Lol wonky is tonights word! Yeah kind of an odd look. Much colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Canadian has a similar look to GFS at the end of its run at 240 (only seen sfc maps to this point)..it has some light wintry precip breaking out in N TX into Oklahoma, with freezing lines from central/northern MS to SE NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 15 minutes ago, Jonesing for a chase said: It's definitely better if you wanted to see the SE ridge beaten down. Our biggest concern in this pattern may be suppression. Just me, but I really struggle with this line of thinking when I see it on here. 99% of the year we don't have temperatures that are even cold enough to support wintry precipitation, so it's hard for me to see how we should be concerned about the pattern being too cold / too suppressed. Just my opinion on the matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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