lookingnorth

Yeah, we had a couple good weeks in January, and a decent snow in February, but overall this winter was unimpressive. At least we weren't setting records for winter warmth like they were further north.

Doesn't feel much like winter today, with much of Oklahoma getting into the upper 80s, and the southern part of the state having some areas in the 90s.

The mountains do block radar coverage, but it looks decent around Lake Tahoe, assuming this map is correct.

I find the CPC is usually pretty good on their 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks. Getting accurate forecasts beyond 14 days out is just extremely hard.

I believe it's happened twice before. 1990-91 and 1991-92 each only had a trace of snow. Same with 1948-49 and 1949-50. But the third time in over 120 years of records is still pretty bad.

It looks like the Antarctic sea ice extent gap is down to 187,000 km^2.

Only got an inch of snow in Norman that was almost all gone by the next morning.

Yeah California has gotten a lot of rain and storms lately. I saw lightning flying into San Diego before Christmas, which is somewhat unusual for them.

We got barely any snow in the Norman/OKC area from the cold blast, and the coming couple weeks don't look that interesting either. I hope we see something good in late February/early March.

I got some surprise flurries today at least.

It looks like December 2023 had the fourth greatest positive temperature anomaly of any month in the UAH dataset, with the three hotter months being this past September-November. https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

The MJO doesn't look too favorable for cold and snow in the coming couple weeks.

Here are the current CPC forecast maps for DJF, as a reference.

There was a major El Nino in the late 1870s, that's probably the explanation for the spike in 1877 September temperature.

It's up to 102°F in OKC and 103°F in Norman, the hottest September temperatures here since 2012, and the hottest I have personally experienced as I was living in North Carolina back in 2012.

While the heat has eased up somewhat the past few days (thankfully), we could really use some rain. Most of the state has not seen a drop of rain in the past two weeks. Most of the OKC metro has seen less than an inch of rain in the past seven weeks. We haven't even had a cloudy day in quite some time. The long stretches of hot, dry, sunny weather really get to me after a while.

The lower humidity today made it feel almost nice, despite a temperature of 96° and dewpoint still at 66°. It's been a hot summer in the OKC area, but not as bad as last year. We're only at thirteen 100-degree days, compared to last year's 24, and far from the 2011 record of 63.

Regardless of whether or not the sea ice values are normally distributed in a natural climate state (it's not something I've really looked into), this year is still clearly below all the other years in the satellite dataset for this time.

I like the topic idea. I am enrolled in a course on atmospheric radiation currently, and it is interesting learning about how aerosols influence atmospheric conditions. I have heard it claimed that the May 20, 2019 severe weather outbreak was weakened due to dust aerosols from further west. But I'm not a huge expert on the topic. I've also heard it said that switching from coal to natural gas may not be as beneficial in reducing climate change as people had hoped, because the aerosols from coal combustion help cool the climate and counteract some of the CO2 emissions from burning coal. But those aerosols still have negative direct effects on human health, so it is still better to switch.

It looks like Raleigh and Greensboro both wound up with a trace as per the official records.

That thing hit about a mile from my house. I know some people who sustained minor damage from the tornado. Luckily I was okay and avoided any damage and didn't even lose power.

Dewpoints are pushing 60 across most of Oklahoma currently. That's solid moisture for this time of year.

I got a slight glaze but nothing substantial.

It looks like the most recent runs of the NAM and HRRR have cut back somewhat on the precipitation amounts for the OKC area tomorrow night.

For the Monday event, the NAM has been consistent in showing snow over western Oklahoma, with less in the OKC and Tulsa metros. NWS Norman mentioned a lot of uncertainty in their morning forecast discussion.