Jonathan Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoshM said: Canadian has joined the party! That's gonna be a quick ice to rain scenario with the HP sliding out quickly. Maybe longer duration in favored areas with some in-situ CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Like what webber has been saying. Until that pacific typhoon develops and recurves or does what its gonna do, all options are on the table downstream. i.e. SER reality or myth. JB is a master at recognizing this signal and it's effects on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jonathan said: That's gonna be a quick ice to rain scenario with the HP sliding out quickly. Maybe longer duration in favored areas with some in-situ CAD. CADs trend colder, just glad we're in the same ballpark. Sometimes, we're not even in the same division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Eps trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 6 hours ago, JoshM said: CADs trend colder, just glad we're in the same ballpark. Sometimes, we're not even in the same division. Exactly! 2 days ago, we were staring down the barrel of a 70 degree, Packbacker bikini Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 6z = no Christmas miracle! The better " chance" on this run was on the 28/29th or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Sounds awesome! https://www.providr.com/alaska-snowfall-record/?utm_source=liftable&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=providr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The 06Z GFS shows 70 on 24/25 and then plummeting to near freezing on the 26h. The extended warmth prior to any event is going to limit accumulations. Same scenario we had with the last system. Our wintry events are always preceded by lots of warmth, it seems like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 6z = no Christmas miracle! The better " chance" on this run was on the 28/29th or so Good news to me, I want no part of an x-mas CAD ice storm that's for sure; bring me snow or a bikini or sunshine at any temp over ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Ensembles are losing packs warm Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Ensembles are losing packs warm Christmas! You can see that many members would still have the SER affects but also the CAD. Being 10 days out, many possibilities still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Worth noting that the GEFS ensemble favors more of a cold scenario than the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, FallsLake said: You can see that many members would still have the SER affects but also the CAD. Being 10 days out, many possibilities still on the table. If we could get that wave in the SW to kick out while the high moved N of us, we'd be in bidness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Worth noting that the GEFS ensemble favors more of a cold scenario than the GFS op. Worth noting that too on the gefs 6z warmest day or period is the afternoon of the 19th. Before and after relatively normal or slightly bn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 I like the look of the loooong range GEFS and EPS this morning. Big AK block, but more ridging over the top and creeping into Greenland, along with lower heights south/east of Greenland (50/50 low?). The SE ridge gets beaten down like it stole something. Will we get blocky in January, right at prime Climo? Or will Nina come crush our dreams with a resurgent SE ridge? No idea, but it looks better this morning. Anybody have the weeklies from last night? I wonder though if they use an older run though. If they used this mornings, it may be different. Edit: can't post the EPS for some reason...won't load Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 The 6z GEFS snowfall map was , ok! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Mid january looks to have some opportunity for cold shots atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Lol... mid January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 End of week Index Report: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: End of week Index Report: -AO is good? Right!? Got it dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: -AO is good? Right!? Got it dude! Looks kind of split to me...short term positive, longer term, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Looks kind of split to me...short term positive, longer term, who knows? The ensembles this morning are starting to have more of a blocky look to them long range. Even the teleconnections show a decent number of ensemble members going solidly negative. I'm pretty hopeful this morning we get blocky again in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Hopeful for that first week of Jan. This is good look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 Yeah Pack the ensembles are showing a big daddy AK ridge. Would prefer to see the ridge axis in E AK instead of W AK and/or more reds showing up in Greenland...those details matter. It does look like the coldest air is going to be on our side of the world this go around...but we may need more help to get more of it nudged southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Hopeful for that first week of Jan. This is good look... Packs Law, in full effect on 12z gfsGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 RDU just had its 8th Straight day at or below normal. Runing -1.5 for December. Today will no doubt make it 9 in a row once it gets talleyed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 28 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah Pack the ensembles are showing a big daddy AK ridge. Would prefer to see the ridge axis in E AK instead of W AK and/or more reds showing up in Greenland...those details matter. It does look like the coldest air is going to be on our side of the world this go around...but we may need more help to get more of it nudged southeast. Yep...still got work to do, why I hope first week of Jan we can pop a PNA ridge. Like the higher heights nosing over the pole...need everything perfect. When I post stuff like that Mack freaks out, I get bad mouthed by turn coats on other boards. So I have to sugar coat it... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...still got work to do, why I hope first week of Jan we can pop a PNA ridge. Like the higher heights nosing over the pole...need everything perfect. When I post stuff like that Mack freaks out, I get bad mouthed by turn coats on other boards. So I have to sugar coat it... :-) Haha Mack hops on and off the cold and warm trains with reckless abandon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Haha Mack hops on and off the cold and warm trains with reckless abandon! No way to find anything good on that GFS run ! Uggh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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