Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I'm banking on the next maunder minimum lol. I'm hoping the correlation b/n the last sunspot long-term min and colder winters bears fruit again in the 2020's and 2030's. we are sill talking about a decade away, as bad as the GFS has been inconsistent for the coming storm, can you imagine what a 10 year GFS Climo run would look like? we would be BURIED under feet of our fluffy white friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 16 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: we are sill talking about a decade away, as bad as the GFS has been inconsistent for the coming storm, can you imagine what a 10 year GFS Climo run would look like? we would be BURIED under feet of our fluffy white friend Yeah talk about polar opposite last night GFS has storm around Christmas with over 2 feet of snow even in Atlanta. 12 hours late we are in oven on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 54 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We need some stratosphere and solar and QBO updates while we’re waiting. I wish NC_Hailstorm would come in here and tell us what’s up, but he’s nowhere to be found! I think that's the only thing that's going to save us from the Nina climo/SE ridge. That or getting into phase 8 of the mjo, but I'm not so sure about that. Oh well. What's the word on ENSO next year? Is there a chance we head back into a weak Nino? That along with the increasingly low solar should make a decent winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 You guys seeing this run? BIG difference at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 19 minutes ago, NC DataDude said: Long time lurker, first time poster. I think I've seen it listed before, but is there a good reference page to get the theoretical "sweet spot" for the SE when looking at the indexes? I see where Cold Rain lists the picts but sometimes I'm not sure if the picts are positive or negative. LOL! Welcome aboard to the...um...board! Generally, it's hard to come up with a sweet spot, per se, if you're talking about the numerical values of the indexes. The numerical value is based on math. The real effects have as much to do with the shape, placement, and configurations of the patterns that evolve out of the index's domain as the value of the index. Generally speaking, a -AO and -EPO allows the build-up of cold in Canada, which usually spills into the US. The -NAO, again, generally speaking, slows the flow at 500mb and suppresses the track. A +PNA sets a ridge up over the west cost of NA, generally placing a trough in the east. If Canada is seeded with cold air, then that air spills into the us. The opposite is generally true for all of those. The magnitude of the values generally amplifies the effects a particular index exerts upon the pattern. But again, the shape, placement, and magnitude of those variables matters a lot. For example, a west-based -NAO (blocking over Greenland into eastern Canada) is much more effective and suppressing the storm track below the SE than an east-based -NAO (ridging out in the north Atlantic or blocking over Iceland). In both cases, the numerical value is <0. The MJO is a convective pulse that migrates through the tropical western Pacific. The phases are 1-8. Usually, you can think of phases 7 or 8-2 as good for cold/storms in the east. The other phases, not so much. This is just a general guideline, as ENSO state (Nina vs. Nino) as well as the current month matter as to a particular phase's implications. Anyway, I hope that helps some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I think that's the only thing that's going to save us from the Nina climo/SE ridge. That or getting into phase 8 of the mjo, but I'm not so sure about that. Oh well. What's the word on ENSO next year? Is there a chance we head back into a weak Nino? WThat along with the increasingly low solar should make a decent winter. I dunno. Whatever it is, it will likely be the wrong state to bring us cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: You guys seeing this run? BIG difference at 186 Even hotter? A Packbacker special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 The key is the trough out in the Pacific. We want that trough to be east of Hawaii. That will help kick-out the SW trough muting the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Looks like the MJO did a loop de loop through phase 6 and probably delays everything a bit.Phase 7 isn't that great here really so we'll wait to get to P8.Tough to keep heights in the west with La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Icestorm setup is back again on this run. What a HP configuration, wow. Hope we can lock in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Weak cad signature on Christmas day...highs in 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 talk about a big fat temperature **** YOU!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Cmc wants nothing to do with the SW trough and se ridge. Has us in the icebox for Christmas. Gefs has us at normal to slightly below for Christmas eve and Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 These models are trying six ways to Sunday to kick that pig ridge's butt. Either east or southeast. Now looks like an attempt at due south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 12z GEFS is a huge improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 days in a row the GFS has shown a CAD signature out in La La Land. The SER would be no match to a 1040+ HP parked to our Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I posted something similar in the MA sub about the CAD look leading into the holiday. For an ens mean out 7-9 days, the GEFS is basically yelling CAD at us. The folks that live in CAD favored areas should be more than a little interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I posted something similar in the MA sub about the CAD look leading into the holiday. For an ens mean out 7-9 days, the GEFS is basically yelling CAD at us. The folks that live in CAD favored areas should be more than a little interested. So a cad is cold air damming correct? Where cold air gets pushed down and blocked by the mountains? Is Myrtle beach and other coastal areas like Wilmington and Charleston considered cad areas? We don’t get the brunt of it but looking at the 2m air temps it does appear we get at least a little BN temps from the cad. Just wasn’t sure if coastal areas are “cad areas” or if we just try to ride the cad coat tails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 EURO shows most of the CONUS in the freezer days 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Weenies will like the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Wow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Now that's a high pressure system I can get behind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Wow lol Not sure what more we could ask for outside of snow guns parked in the street on Christmas eve. Climo, and more importantly my gut instinct, say dont buy into this quite yet. Any idea if that HP is sticking around for a few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Last frame of the EURO looks like it's cooking up a Christmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 3 hours ago, packbacker said: We need the strat, QBO and a recurving typhoon to save this mess. Quickly looked...since winter 2015 we have had 1 BN winter month, 1 neutral and 7 AN, well AN in most cases. Law of averages say we should be cold with a 10" snow pack in Jan/Feb. I think the next decade we see this flip... Keep in mind that every time they recalculate the normals more and more warm years are being included in the average. Eventually, the forecast maps may show normal or slightly below but it won't make any difference in the snowfall chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Just now, Jonathan said: Last frame of the EURO looks like it's cooking up a Christmas miracle. I guess we have to wait until tonight's run to see if it shows a Christmas miracle ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 You sound like a teacher with all your stats and logicology Burnsie. Wait, nevermind...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 If the Euro didn't bury that SW low at the very end, the SE and MA would be in the freezer big time. Still pops a bit of a SER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Not sure what more we could ask for outside of snow guns parked in the street on Christmas eve. Climo, and more importantly my gut instinct, say dont buy into this quite yet. Any idea if that HP is sticking around for a few days? It wouldn't matter if one moves out, there are 3 more waiting to take its place! Amazing look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Wow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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