cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 32 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah not look good right now for Christmas. Most models showing the SER owning the show. Just looked at the Canadian and it would have widespread 60s and 70s across the SE. The JMA still shows a cool look but doesn't have much support. Still a couple of more days to see if things can trend better but it needs to start looking better soon. I have been coming here a while but I am a casual visitor and model terminology still confuses me a bit. When you say Canadian, do you mean the GEM (what I think of as the operational Canadian) or the GEPS (the ensemble Candian)? Both? Neither? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1 hour ago, tramadoc said: DT is Dave Tolleris. He is an agriculture and energy meteorologist. He has a Facebook page and website called WxRisk. He's pretty good with forcasting. He just has a bit of an attitude and acts like a recalcitrant child at times. He also exclusively hugs the euro/eps so he's only going cold for Christmas because the eps still shows it. He incessantly trashes the gfs/gefs and I personally find it amusing when the gfs/gefs end up being correct when the models are at odds. It happens plenty every winter too. Lol. DT is a smart guy and knows his stuff but he has an awful personality. Often worse than a spoiled child. On topic.... today was a bit of a disaster. I recently posted in this thread when ens all agreed with strong confluence to the north and a CAD sig. That look is fading fast unfortunately. Models are now showing more of a phased system cutting along or west of the apps and bringing plenty of warmth with it to the east. Nothing is set in stone but we've been down this road before. Hopefully it changes back to colder quicker. The upper air pattern leading into the holiday is changing. Instead of confluence and a strong high to the north we are now seeing the dreaded sw-ne aligned upper level flow. The eps still shows it breaking down fast but I have my doubts that look holds. With the shift in upper level flow comes increased stubbornness with the SE ridge. I do think it will get knocked out before the end of the month but I've seen this many times over the years. It may very well end up taking longer than we want it to It's not all dismal in the not to distant future. I'm just pointing out that the odds of a warm Christmas are increasing. Nothing is set in stone. Beyond the holiday there is strong agreement for a pretty beefy epo ridge. Big cold is coming to the conus before Dec is over. It will be invading the upper midwest within a werk. Pretty confident with that. For now we need to track trends with the SE ridge. Today was not a step in the right direction overall even though the eps still looks good. The nao is going to be positive for a while. An epo can still deliver plenty of cold but storm track gets tricky. All comes down the trough axis. Too far west and we ridge out at times. I don't see any mechanism to stop that from happening but only if the mean trough axis sets up too far west. The upcoming pattern after christmas (if it holds) reminds me of Jan/Feb 94, 14, and 15. Plenty chances for frozen precip in a pattern like that for both our regions but the risk of ice/mixed goes up. With no nao block, cold highs will be progressive so even if we get the deep freeze it can move out in 2-3 days before the next front. This happened a lot in the 3 years I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Thanks for the update Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He also exclusively hugs the euro/eps so he's only going cold for Christmas because the eps still shows it. He incessantly trashes the gfs/gefs and I personally find it amusing when the gfs/gefs end up being correct when the models are at odds. It happens plenty every winter too. Well I shamelessly root for any model that showing my preferred result, so I am in the EPS camp :). As far as I know the euro is still the king with regard to verification scores so I feel slightly less bad then I would if the GEFS was the lone hold-out. While we are on the topic, I fully understand the concept behind ensemble forecasting as it is fairly intuitive. What I wonder about is why do operational models continue to co-exist with the ensemble approach? Are the ensemble averages, on average more likely to verify than the operational, or not? I am assuming that since we continue to use both that the answer is that "it's complicated" and that neither is universally superior to the other. So do they each have their strengths and weakness? Perhaps one is more accurate far out and the other better close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Way better run for you guys in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Geez, talk about yo yo again. GFS has the southeast in the 60s and low 70s. Next run, there's a R/S mix showing at the tip of the Florida Panhandle. Clown Map, in case anyone cares to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Geez, talk about yo yo again. GFS has the southeast in the 60s and low 70s. Next run, there's a R/S mix showing at the tip of the Florida Panhandle. Clown Map, in case anyone cares to see. And of course South Carolina gets missed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 1052 High coming into the midwest after Christmas. Massive cold outbreak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: 1052 High coming into the midwest after Christmas. Massive cold outbreak! Cold and dry, yippee! And a little cold chasing moisture for GA again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Gfs looks like the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Jesus that's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, JoshM said: 1052 High coming into the midwest after Christmas. Massive cold outbreak! Which is almost guaranteed to shove any LP that even thinks about developing in the Gulf of Mexico to Cuba. It's either an amped up beast with a raging warm nose and a cold rain or cold and dry with a HP that suppresses anything that develops. Can't win for losing around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Jesus that's cold. You’re telling me... look at these temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Jesus that's cold. Yeah, a little chilly! Tampa's DP is only -56! GFS off its rocker! This won't happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Sweet baby Jesus the potential the end of this month has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: You’re telling me... look at these temps Franklin NC has the same temp as international falls MN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Franklin NC has the same temp as international falls MN! Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 20's into South Beach? lol Ok, Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 6 hours ago, WarmNose said: 20's into South Beach? lol Ok, Goofus At 7am on the 28th with dew points in the ranging from -30 to -90. I guess the saying "a cold day in hell" may actually have some meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 10 hours ago, cbmclean said: I have been coming here a while but I am a casual visitor and model terminology still confuses me a bit. When you say Canadian, do you mean the GEM (what I think of as the operational Canadian) or the GEPS (the ensemble Candian)? Both? Neither? Yep Canadian; meaning the country that produces the models. We call the GFS the American, JMA the Japanese, UK for the United Kingdom, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 There was some improvement in the last couple runs of the GFS. The latest 6z would have a weak-ish CAD setup that keeps many of us cold and rainy for Christmas. In my opinion, better than the 60s and 70s form yesterdays runs. As Bob stated it would look more like a quick moving Miller A that runs the Apps. But it still looks strange. The CAD actually stays put and this particular scenario acts like a reverse Miller B; whereas a low tries to pop off the coast but then transfers energy back to the low over the Apps. We're starting to get close enough that the details can be looked at, but I'm still not trusting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, FallsLake said: There was some improvement in the last couple runs of the GFS. The latest 6z would have a weak-ish CAD setup that keeps many of us cold and rainy for Christmas. In my opinion, better than the 60s and 70s form yesterdays runs. As Bob stated it would look more like a quick moving Miller A that runs the Apps. But it still looks strange. The CAD actually stays put and this particular scenario acts like a reverse Miller B; whereas a low tries to pop off the coast but then transfers energy back to the low over the Apps. We're starting to get close enough that the details can be looked at, but I'm still not trusting them. Like a Miller A/B hybrid? Rare but they do happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Looks like I get some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 I'll take that 6z GFS, all day!! Cold run, classic southern slider forming in TX at the end of the run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I'll take that 6z GFS, all day!! Cold run, classic southern slider forming in TX at the end of the run! Be nice go get a few sleet pellets with this much cold just to our north. Should be good for Franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Be nice go get a few sleet pellets with this much cold just to our north. Should be good for Franklin. I'll take that! We would be ok! I'm glad they are backing off of " the very Packbacker Christmas " hopefully the cooler trends prevail right at Christmas and the first week of January, that's our best time to score , IMO , then we have the Jan 88 timeframe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Exciting pattern, some late Jan/early Feb 96 parallels w the pv into the dakatos. This really is a good pattern for overrunning w cad. Aka ice ice baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I'll take that! We would be ok! I'm glad they are backing off of " the very Packbacker Christmas " hopefully the cooler trends prevail right at Christmas and the first week of January, that's our best time to score , IMO , then we have the Jan 88 timeframe! Sadly it’s looks like we will have some shots of cold at the least. Here is what the 850 temps look like a couple of days prior to a few of our biggest nina snows. Need the cold to press a little more. Probably more of an icy pattern but maybe something frozen would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 NAO is the variable. Warming at the heart of 10mb makes it likely to have -NAO the 2nd and 3rd weeks of January, but I don't know that it won't trend that way now. My point is model bias in the medium-long range may be happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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