FallsLake Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 20 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Maybe a sign that pattern isn't what LR models are making it out to be? free image storage sites Looks similar to the latest GFS. Would hope it means the NAM is with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Plus, a recurving typhoon is going to save us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Or rain! That puts a certain shiny look on outdoor decorations! I need rain still, so I'm looking forward to the warm, wet well coming up and 3" of rain by Thursday! Then I'm ready for Arctic- geddon! Yeah, I'm good with getting some rain. I'm hopeful that we at least feel Christmasy on Christmas. I suspect we will be warm, but we'll see. Who knows about Arcticgeddon. Hopefully, it's not a mirage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Plus, a recurving typhoon is going to save us all! And a SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 29 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Maybe a sign that pattern isn't what LR models are making it out to be? free image storage sites True statement to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 One of these days the EPS is going to be right...almost 2" mean. The 28-30th looks interesting on the GEFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I don't mind a warm Christmas as long as it's dry. I'd like to have snow, but warm and dry or cold and dry is better than rain. Things look interesting between Christmas and the first of the new year. Just have to take the pattern and the models one day at a time now. The models have been all over the place, so really nothing is set in stone. And the weather here can change drastically in a week's time in winter, so I wouldn't worry about a warm up. We've seen it 70 here one day and a big snow storm a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 First we get a great tracking coastal (2" of 33F rain) and now a nice little overrunning event. Atleast it's in the 40's this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 A Mack special on the 6z GFS...we can survive this winter on day 16 Op GFS faux snow maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: A Mack special on the 6z GFS...we can survive this winter on day 16 Op GFS faux snow maps.... It's ok to be in the bullseye 15 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 22 minutes ago, packbacker said: A Mack special on the 6z GFS...we can survive this winter on day 16 Op GFS faux snow maps.... I'll take even money and cash out for 11 inches of fantasy snow. That puts me up to 18 inches for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GFS becoming more consistent keeping it chilly Christmas eve and Day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Canadian not their yet, but much quicker with the front.... heading towards GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Chilly for most Christmas Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Mountains get a White Christmas day Via 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 When's the last time central Alabama had 2 beat your yearly average snow storms in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Little bit of snow for the coastal plain and OBX way out in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The 27-28th potential...I think we all know where this SLP will track as we get closer. For RDU it's not far enough east, we need it over Bermuda at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: The 27-28th potential...I think we all know where this SLP will track as we get closer. For RDU it's not far enough east, we need it over Bermuda at this range. Is my fantasy 24" snow still there at 384!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 The Big Storm the GFS was showing in the midwest after Christmas has disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The Big Storm the GFS was showing in the midwest after Christmas has disappeared. It's there, it's just on the 1st now and cold not as impressive. The 3nd or 3rd storm , would be rain on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Is my fantasy 24" snow still there at 384!? No it cut. Right where we want it. We'll let it do a northwest trend all the way around the globe back to our back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, WarmNose said: No it cut. Right where we want it. We'll let it do a northwest trend all the way around the globe back to our back yard. Hey, we are under a marginal risk for flash flooding on Wednesday, I'll take it! Still need a lot of warm rain! Im glad it's looking like parts of GA getting snow on Christmas Day ! As long as some one in the south gets a white Christmas, and it's not NC / SC , I'm good with that! I don't care if it doesn't snow all winter imby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 I'm suprised someone hasn't developed a formula to decipher the most likely outcome based on what the GFS is spitting out at X hour. An (If this) then (this) type of formula. The answers have to be there even out in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: I'm suprised someone hasn't developed a formula to decipher the most likely outcome based on what the GFS is spitting out at X hour. An (If this) then (this) type of formula. The answers have to be there even out in the LR. Try this: CR X (snow) + PB ( warm) X bathtub slosh theory + recurving typhoons. - SSW + wooly worm X pioneer model = (y)3 solve for y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GEFS not bad, gives mby 1-2" around Christmas, but thats mostly from 3 or so members that look nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 28 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Try this: CR X (snow) + PB ( warm) X bathtub slosh theory + recurving typhoons. - SSW + wooly worm X pioneer model = (y)3 solve for y All iterations = No Snow For You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Euro with the blowtorch again for Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 Interesting Euro run. Huge Hudson Bay PV with lots of cold spread out west to east...we're on the fringe of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Interesting Euro run. Huge Hudson Bay PV with lots of cold spread out west to east...we're on the fringe of it. This whole pattern is screaming a major CAD event. Just need the timing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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