BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Snovary said: I give that exact scenario less than a 5% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I'm still onboard with the period from Christmas through the first few days of Jan. We'll get something during that time. Other than that, the pattern sucks! Bet this GFS run reverses last night's 0z and goes warm again. Cold air moving much faster this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I give that exact scenario less than a 5% chance of verifying. I don't really see this as cold chasing moisture. The cold air rushes in and the precip pivots and slings the moisture back as it's making the turn away from NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I give that exact scenario less than a 5% chance of verifying. Im looking more at the timing of the cold, just coming in earlier. Id say theres a chance of seeing a flake for some, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just looking at this 5-6 days out....close to being something. To bad GFS is on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, Snovary said: Im looking more at the timing of the cold, just coming in earlier. Id say theres a chance of seeing a flake for some, I mean, miracles happen every day. I can count on one hand the times that a scenario like this has worked out if you live in the shadow of the mountains down to the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Flurries on Christmas=no complaining from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: There is absolutely no way anyone outside of the mountains sees a flake in that setup, unless the front somehow speeds up by a day and the precip slows down by a day and that aint happening. It's cold chasing precip thats going to dry out anyway from downsloping. Have to agree with you on this one. Backside flurries just prior to ending at best for most of us. This is not the type of set-up that brings accumulating snow to the foothills or Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Where's Pack and CR to tell us the upcoming pattern sucks and nobody south of DC is gonna see snow through mid January MJO is heading to Ph2 in early Jan. PH3-5 is like the snooze button on your alarm COC. Maybe it dives into COD because otherwise Mid-Jan would be a good time to get the gardening tools ready. Nina’s in Feb... But, we have a window to get a few sleet pellets before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Even we couldn’t screw this one up...weak wave underneath a big artic high. Or can we... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Even we couldn’t screw this one up...weak wave underneath a big artic high. Or can we... You promised me 1988 redux so we'd better not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I mean, miracles happen every day. I can count on one hand the times that a scenario like this has worked out if you live in the shadow of the mountains down to the piedmont. Not saying any accumulations or even a dusting, but seeing A flake or two, in the normal roxboro nc type areas has a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Pack, Have to count on that 1041 moving ESE and not ENE or that wave will not get surpressed far enough south edit: If that 1006 LP over Nova Scotia just stays put or rotates circularly were in business maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Snovary said: Not saying any accumulations or even a dusting, but seeing A flake or two, wouldnt, the normal roxboro nc area has a shot It will take a miracle....... but hey, this is Christmas, the season of miracles.... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I mean, miracles happen every day. I can count on one hand the times that a scenario like this has worked out if you live in the shadow of the mountains down to the piedmont. Not saying any accumulations or even a dusting, but seeing A flake or two, wouldnt, the normal roxboro nc area has a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 This run will not show our storm in the immediate post christmas period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Even we couldn’t screw this one up...weak wave underneath a big artic high. Or can we... Keep seeing this more and more 0n 500mb maps every model cycle. Same set up. You cant ask for anything more than this to have a bonified shot at SECHS. But if there is a way,Im sure we will discover it over the next 7 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Keep seeing this more and more 0n 500mb maps every model cycle. Same set up. You cant ask for anything more than this to have a bonified shot at SECHS. But if there is a way,Im sure we will discover it over the next 7 days lol. Ask Cold Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The canadian and gfs are both in pretty good agreement which is great news if you love snow along a line from St. Louis to Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Well, our southern slider is more like a Great Lakes slider on the 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Ask Cold Rain Im nicknaming this the M&M threat. Use that term for Murphy to Manteo, but for this one,Like your fav of all time its Memphis to Manteo. Itll trend south, just a model hiccup boys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Cold Rain, it looks like our southern slider turned into a Lakes Low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Yeah the snow on the backside almost never happens like that. The whole cold rushing in will not happen as I see it. The cold has to make it over 6000 feet mountain peaks and that will not be fast enough in my opinion to give anyone snow outside the mountains. One run though. At least we are trening colder but never underestimate the mountains blocking the cold from moving in quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 That 1044mb High parked over the Rockies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the snow on the backside almost never happens like that. The whole cold rushing in will not happen as I see it. The cold has to make it over 6000 feet mountain peaks and that will not be fast enough in my opinion to give anyone snow outside the mountains. One run though. At least we are trening colder but never underestimate the mountains blocking the cold from moving in quickly. The only time I feel semi-confident with a scenario like that is with a significant arctic airmass in place with an even stronger one incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: Even we couldn’t screw this one up...weak wave underneath a big artic high. Or can we... You were saying.... In all seriousness, the run-to-run changes are far from over. Going to have to wait this one out to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The only time I feel semi-confident with a scenario like that is with a significant arctic airmass in place with an even stronger one incoming. Yep, you can get a quick snow squall with the passing of the arctic front. If there is cold air already in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 It's all going to crap , in a hand basket! Now just a 1040 high in the plains, our Jan 88 redux is now a lakes cutter! This sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The canadian and gfs are both in pretty good agreement which is great news if you love snow along a line from St. Louis to Toledo. Cutters are easy money. On to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 It will be interesting to see how this trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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