CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: It will be interesting to see how this trends The waves are just not digging deep enough before they make the turn. You can blame the lack of blocking for that. We will have to rely on the trough axis to score. Right now, it's too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 If you like sustained cold with frequent storm threats, the GFS, as expected, was a wall to wall disaster. I wouldn't get my hopes up for the Euro either. Hopefully, the Christmas flakes will pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The cold on the 12Z GFS is a lot less impressive. I guess that is due to a weaker high out west. What time does the 12Z ECMWF and EPS come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I wish I wouldn't have seen the 0z run from last night. That was pure eye candy to the hot garbage of the 6z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Each time we've seen the GFS go one way, it has gone back the other way soon after. I think it will go stronger with the high and colder, but not as much as the 0Z. I think it is starting to even out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The cold on the 12Z GFS is a lot less impressive. I guess that is due to a weaker high out west. What time does the 12Z ECMWF and EPS come out? Not just that the high is weaker but literally pushes the -EPO back towards Siberia vs the 0z run which saw it ridging over Canada basically forcing the PV into the US. Why the GFS is even run past a few days is beyond me anymore. However, the ensembles completey disagree with the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Like Clockwork. The GEFS takes the Yo Yo gfs op across its knee and spanks the reality on its backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Like Clockwork. The Gefs takes the Yo Yo gfs op across its knee and spanks the reality on its backside. Yeah right at Christmas when we get that massive cold front, it pretty much stays cold for the whole country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I've got a question. Even the good and cold runs of the GFS show some ridging in the southeast and south gulf states. Usually we want a trough on top of us for cold and not ridging. Is this messing us up at 5h? The GEFS at 240 looks plenty cold. But I still notice the light ridging there. If we do end up getting a storm in this time frame, won't it cut due to the ridging? I know there's been some speculation about how the week after Christmas has alot of potential but the ridging consistently showing in that time frame has me confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah right at Christmas when we get that massive cold front, it pretty much stays cold for the whole country. Im with Stormsfurry. Id rather have the old gfs back. This upgraded one is God-awful. We knew with the old one what to expect,weakness etc. But the new one we currently have forecast Highs in the 115 range in summer, goes from one end of the universe to the other every other run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I've got a question. Even the good and cold runs of the GFS show some ridging in the southeast and south gulf states. Usually we want a trough on top of us for cold and not ridging. Is this messing us up at 5h? The GEFS at 240 looks plenty cold. But I still notice the light ridging there. If we do end up getting a storm in this time frame, won't it cut due to the ridging? I know there's been some speculation about how the week after Christmas has alot of potential but the ridging consistently showing in that time frame has me confused. That would prevent uber suppression, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I've got a question. Even the good and cold runs of the GFS show some ridging in the southeast and south gulf states. Usually we want a trough on top of us for cold and not ridging. Is this messing us up at 5h? The GEFS at 240 looks plenty cold. But I still notice the light ridging there. If we do end up getting a storm in this time frame, won't it cut due to the ridging? I know there's been some speculation about how the week after Christmas has alot of potential but the ridging consistently showing in that time frame has me confused. Its all about where it puts the pac ridge in the pac NW. The op moves it around a few hundred miles from run to run and it screws everything else up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Each time we've seen the GFS go one way, it has gone back the other way soon after. I think it will go stronger with the high and colder, but not as much as the 0Z. I think it is starting to even out. Yep..not sure why anyone would get discouraged based one one or even a few gfs runs because of the comical run to run changes beyond a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: It's all going to crap , in a hand basket! Now just a 1040 high in the plains, our Jan 88 redux is now a lakes cutter! This sucks Rates will overcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Rates will overcome? Models are underestimating the cold push, my favorite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro is going to be a good run, I can feel it, we're due! A rockin day 8-9 storm will be there! Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 26 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: That would prevent uber suppression, IMO. Good point, didn't think of that. Could probably create more NW flow for more moisture too. I guess we need to ride the line between suppression and inland runner, assuming we do get a storm. I just don't remember ever seeing a decent threat time frame with ridging in the SE. 25 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Its all about where it puts the pac ridge in the pac NW. The op moves it around a few hundred miles from run to run and it screws everything else up. Yeah, different EPO ridge different outcomes downstream for sure. That ridging though has always been there on the GFS the last several runs I've followed, even the 0Z with the overrunning storm brewing along the gulf states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 18 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Euro is going to be a good run, I can feel it, we're due! A rockin day 8-9 storm will be there! Book it Sounds boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 well then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 I'm so old I remember the days when the GFS caved to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro has a big, prolonged overrunning system in the SW...wintry precip in Kansas/Missouri/OK/N AR day 8-10....overall, cold air was a little better this run, but not optimal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro has a big, prolonged overrunning system in the SW...wintry precip in Kansas/Missouri/OK/N AR day 8-10....overall, cold air was a little better this run, but not optimal Maybe we'll get some EPS love like we did with gefs. If so I'll be happy this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro has a big, prolonged overrunning system in the SW...wintry precip in Kansas/Missouri/OK/N AR day 8-10....overall, cold air was a little better this run, but not optimal some improvement is better than a torch run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro has a big, prolonged overrunning system in the SW...wintry precip in Kansas/Missouri/OK/N AR day 8-10....overall, cold air was a little better this run, but not optimal if the Euro is dragging its feet in the southwest, that's a legit mid-south/Carolina winter storm. I was liking the progression of that run (through 192) until it broke off the energy and went to southern California to camp out. Since the formerly reliable Euro can't even get a 4-5 day forecast right anymore, I'm guessing we haven't seen anything remotely close to reality yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro has a big, prolonged overrunning system in the SW...wintry precip in Kansas/Missouri/OK/N AR day 8-10....overall, cold air was a little better this run, but not optimal Baby steps! Euro and GEFS, kinda sorta close!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Baby steps! Euro and GEFS, kinda sorta close!? Looking at the 12z GFS Ens members for the time period after the arctic front passes, I see 8 with storms that cut, 7 with storms showing wintry precip in the SE, and 5 with no storm...so, not bad having the 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Looking at the 12z GFS Ens members for the time period after the arctic front passes, I see 8 with storms that cut, 7 with storms showing wintry precip in the SE, and 5 with no storm...so, not bad having the 7 so basically we are looking at the equivalent of a 7/10 split.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: so basically we are looking at the equivalent of a 7/10 split.... I've seen worse, put it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowNiner said: I've got a question. Even the good and cold runs of the GFS show some ridging in the southeast and south gulf states. Usually we want a trough on top of us for cold and not ridging. Is this messing us up at 5h? The GEFS at 240 looks plenty cold. But I still notice the light ridging there. If we do end up getting a storm in this time frame, won't it cut due to the ridging? I know there's been some speculation about how the week after Christmas has alot of potential but the ridging consistently showing in that time frame has me confused. Regarding ridging in the SE and temps still cold enough for wintry precip, you're looking at a Miller B overrunning type setup where you have just enough shallow cold air for a wintry mix...but yeah, I agree with your premise here, I'd never want to see above normal heights in the SE. Suppression would be a low concern. Having enough cold air would be a high concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 Chestnuts currently roasting here in Waterloo SC. 70 degrees and I forgot my sunscreen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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