CT Rain Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 YAAAS SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f051.gif Triple bunner post of the day! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I've seen this one before. SPC marginal risk becomes Ekster on radar for 14 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Triple bunner post of the day! :weenie: Current temp 56. Current vis 3/4SM. We're ready for a few SVRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Some severe potential on Tuesday if the NAM/SREF CAPE forecast is right. Agree... Euro has decent (modest) Cape and a nice 500 jet max to our south putting us in a decent position; front/left exit region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 YAAAS SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f051.gif I get excited when red circles are drawn around me even if I have no idea what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Agree... Euro has decent (modest) Cape and a nice 500 jet max to our south putting us in a decent position; front/left exit region? Gotta keep some low level moisture around. If dew points can overperform it could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 If I were Wiz I'd save my chasing for Tuesdayyep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 I get excited when red circles are drawn around me even if I have no idea what it means. Right? That one is pretty easy though. It's a probabilities of MLCAPE > 500, MLLCL <1.5km, 0-1 helicity > 100, 0-6km shear > 40 kts, and that there is any convective QPF multiplied together. So 5% is a small number, but means that there must be sufficiently large probabilities of each individual parameter. Taking a quick look through, this image is being dominated by the probabilities for low LCLs, high shear, and convective precip. CAPe is 50/50 and helicity is low. So while it's called significant tornado ingredients, sometimes it's just helpful to located areas favorable for severe convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It's done fairly well in our sunrise surprise events. It had the revere ma tornado environment modeled well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 Right? That one is pretty easy though. It's a probabilities of MLCAPE > 500, MLLCL <1.5km, 0-1 helicity > 100, 0-6km shear > 40 kts, and that there is any convective QPF multiplied together. So 5% is a small number, but means that there must be sufficiently large probabilities of each individual parameter. Taking a quick look through, this image is being dominated by the probabilities for low LCLs, high shear, and convective precip. CAPe is 50/50 and helicity is low. So while it's called significant tornado ingredients, sometimes it's just helpful to located areas favorable for severe convection. Great explanation. Very cool. Thanks for taking the time to write it up and share some knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 GFS would be another miserable Sunday. Nice low tracking just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Congrats Picnic Tables. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Monday...deep mid/upper level trof continues to impact our region on weds night through friday...before slowly lifting by the weekend. the combination of northwest upslope flow and associated cold air advection will result in additional showers and brisk conditions on weds night. have noted progged 850mb temps drop between -1c and +1c by 12z thurs...supporting some mixed wet snow above 4000 feet on weds night...a light coating is possible on the summits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Congrats Picnic Tables. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Monday...deep mid/upper level trof continues to impact our region on weds night through friday...before slowly lifting by the weekend. the combination of northwest upslope flow and associated cold air advection will result in additional showers and brisk conditions on weds night. have noted progged 850mb temps drop between -1c and +1c by 12z thurs...supporting some mixed wet snow above 4000 feet on weds night...a light coating is possible on the summits. Wow! I wish I could get up there to see that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Congrats Picnic Tables. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Monday...deep mid/upper level trof continues to impact our region on weds night through friday...before slowly lifting by the weekend. the combination of northwest upslope flow and associated cold air advection will result in additional showers and brisk conditions on weds night. have noted progged 850mb temps drop between -1c and +1c by 12z thurs...supporting some mixed wet snow above 4000 feet on weds night...a light coating is possible on the summits. that is nuts, hope you enjoy. I'm moving to Laramie, Wyoming later this year for my job. The mountains there are 12,000 plus feet and have snow all year around. I was at Medicene Bow Peak on the 4th of July last year and there was still piles of snow all over and got caught in a heavy thunderstorm with about an inch of nickel sized hail and the temp went from about 55 to 38 in the matter of 5 minutes. Can't wait to live at 7,200 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Congrats Picnic Tables. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Monday...deep mid/upper level trof continues to impact our region on weds night through friday...before slowly lifting by the weekend. the combination of northwest upslope flow and associated cold air advection will result in additional showers and brisk conditions on weds night. have noted progged 850mb temps drop between -1c and +1c by 12z thurs...supporting some mixed wet snow above 4000 feet on weds night...a light coating is possible on the summits. Can't remember the exact year but sometime late 90's I was hiking the summit trail between Lincoln and Lafayette in NH on June 14th and got caught in moderate snow showers at the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 i get the feeling this is going to be the summer of the hidden ridge ... they'll verify from time to time ... but they'll almost never be modeled in a middle or extended lead, as these models just seem as though they must have been deliberately designed to crash heights beyond D4's ... anything in the flow that possibly could justify and it's open season on erosion with these things. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Triple bun award may go to Ekster today. He's talking snow possibly down to 1,500 feet Thursday morning. Verbatim the NAM would have a little freezing rain mid slope too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 That is a very intense shortwave nosing southeastward out of Ontario on Saturday into Sunday on the Euro. Wonder if that gets a more legit severe threat into this area depending on its exact timing/track, the GFS is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 June 9, 1980, our lawn at 530' in Ft. Kent had sufficient snow to turn a very light green, but not enough to make the 0.1" threshold. At 1,000+ feet west of Allagash there was an inch or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Day 7 Euro tries to bring a blue hammer to the N half of Maine - doubt it will succeed in that... but hell - we've been the only hemispheric off-set to GW for three-years worth of months so why stop now - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Do you think New England will avoid the heat ridge for most of the summer???? Would not surprise if NYC gets heat fringed and Boston misses the heat mostly this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Do you think New England will avoid the heat ridge for most of the summer???? Would not surprise if NYC gets heat fringed and Boston misses the heat mostly this summer. It's going to come...it always does at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Triple bun award may go to Ekster today. He's talking snow possibly down to 1,500 feet Thursday morning. Verbatim the NAM would have a little freezing rain mid slope too. That's a cold profile on the 12z NAM, lol. Like late April stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 She coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 I heard July 12th could be warm, that will probably verify as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Euro tries to go snow on the mountains again around D6-7, lol. It even gets 0C at 850 into most of SNE. That's pretty crazy stuff for mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Euro tries to go snow on the mountains again around D6-7, lol. It even gets 0C at 850 into most of SNE. That's pretty crazy stuff for mid June. go back and look at the 12z run yesterday ... outright blue hammered N half of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Models have some pretty strong surface winds for early next week, the GFS has some very impressive gusts for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Euro tries to go snow on the mountains again around D6-7, lol. It even gets 0C at 850 into most of SNE. That's pretty crazy stuff for mid June. Commence uninstall. ...Stoke up the boilers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 NWS Buffalo, I love the highlighted comment: Wednesday will be the chilliest day of the week as the core of apotent shortwave will be plowing across the Lower Great Lakes.Immediately in the wake of this system, 850mb temps will continuetheir sharp decline, bottoming out in the 0C to +2C range. Aspreviously mentioned, given the relatively warm waters of the lakes,the sfc-850mb temperature differential, as much as 18C, and thegenerally well-oriented west-northwest flow will surely generate aconsiderable lake response. The combination of the upper levelfeature and the lake enhancement will likely result in scatteredshowers across much of the forecast area on Wednesday, with showerseven more likely across the upslope areas downwind of the lakes. Thecombination of cloudy skies and cold temperatures aloft will make itfeel more like mid-October rather than June, with temperatures onlylimping into the mid to upper 50s. The chilliness will be furtheraccentuated by the brisk west-northwest flow of 15 to 25 mph withgusts to 35 mph as stronger winds aloft mix down in the unstableboundary layer. Keep this coming in July/August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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