powderfreak Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 lol...that's 100F at d10. Nice, that'd be twice as many degrees as we seem to have today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 lol...that's 100F at d10. not that anyone asked but 'm on the fence with all that ... having to consider a cornucopia of pros and cons, each of which is arguable pretty much all = 0 skill. not even sure to begin, but here's a few: 1 .. 'season of malcontent' - there is something to be said for persistence, and anyone that would deny that this season has shown a propensity to ...quite figuratively "engineer" excuses not to bring deep heat east of the Lakes really should shut-down their PC and/or mobile device and never turn it back on again ... Call it Stockholm Syndrome if we must .. but given that propensity it is very hard to imagine an extreme outlook that has to do with heat (thus in particular) actually making it all the way from a blue moon to verification time without the atmosphere throwing initializations into the models as though there were an actual agenda to fumble around and f- it all up! 2 .. sarcasm aside, the Euro solution has too long of a wave length from the WC to nearly the EC. 'Over the top' heat, which is how the model initially brings it in, is prone heat; what the means is that ANY perturbation will stop that, be it a backdoor poorly modeled, or just flat out being too far NE with warm boundaries relative to a NW flow at 700 mb level. That's what did us in yesterday - that warm air was sheared SE by a cosmic scaled pair of scissors! ...Just the same, does wave length matter necessarily? I mean, yes they should be shortened during the summer months, but .. if the main band of hemispheric gradient should lift N of the 45th parallel, it almost doesn't matter. A GW rich atmosphere with gradually homogenizing continental rotisserie oven sort of makes the point moot. 3 .. the 06z GFS and 00z GGEM break continuity drastically by closing a 4 contoured closed summer killer on the Delmarva ..then going on to taking some 4 or 5 days to fill it /lift it out ... over which time, the current heat signal gets wasted. a .. logic dictates (based in no small part on classical education mixed over years with experience) that continuity breaks should be taken with a grain of salt (or is it 'assualt'?) b .. on the other hand, paragraph 1 above actually supports the 06z GFS and 00Z GGEM solutions - hmm (eye, brow raises). that offers up a tough conundrum: does the summer weather enthusiast automatically, knee-jerk expect that since it is SNE and the topic at hand is warm air .. aggressive, painful and humiliating anal pounding by the cosmic dildo will take place if given any excuse to do so, or, c .. dying El Nino summers are supposed to be hot. at least that all the stuff i've read (not sure what else is out there..). if we are to meet at all with climate expectations, at some point, we have to stop talking about snow on top of mt f-kum Mansfield in June for christ sake! Maybe now is time... d .. the obvious: the GGEM can't be trusted for any reason and therefore, i deserve a bun for even bringing it up; while the 06Z oper. GFS ( was told personally by an NWS employee) should be considered as just another ensemble member because its initialization blends the first 6 hourly data off the 00z to fill the holes. which heh...yes and no for me. 4 ... the GGEM and GFS ( I think) could be converging on a similar solution along the EC by way of disparate biases in play. in other words, coincidentally. the GGEM has a dig for oil bias that it also parlays the other way with too much height amplitude beyond ... say 10 minutes of any run out in time (it seems). meanwhile, i've noticed the the operational GFS can't admit that winter ended N of the 45th latitude. it just refuses to lift the westlies anywhere, period. and this makes it susceptible to this kind of thing (if it is proven to be error). we've already seen a closed low (though weaker relative to what the GFS modeled leading up to it...) verify this season, so...meh, they can happen. AND, this would also atone for the Euro's 'too long' of a wave length. this list goes on... we could get into 104 F at Logan on the D10 solution?! umm.. right. Like, why should that be any different than a 974 mb tempest on ISP on a late January D10 chart (or D5 for that matter)? right - contrasting, the continuity argument above supports a warmer than normal period in there - though 104 obviously notwithstanding. self-loathing insists the universe is out to get me ... and since i'm a summer enthusiast, i'm already trying to find other hobbies to offer proverbial lube. my struggle with objectivity forces my hand though, and i suggest nothing's different than yesterday (for now) ... figure a pattern looms offering 88-92 type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Loved that post Tip...perfect pros and cons list with humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 It's a d10 deterministic run...I don't think anyone is buying high heat from that excluding a poster from NE CT. 100F is rare territory anyways. I think we're more amused at the prog than anything. I agree that it looks more like a trend toward an AN pattern...probably 88-92 days like you mention and some muggy days mixed in. I feel like the solstice is around the time when summer begins to settle in anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 It's a d10 deterministic run...I don't think anyone is buying high heat from that excluding a poster from NE CT. 100F is rare territory anyways. I think we're more amused at the prog than anything. I agree that it looks more like a trend toward an AN pattern...probably 88-92 days like you mention and some muggy days mixed in. I feel like the solstice is around the time when summer begins to settle in anyways. Be that as it may, we've got our late-October day going on today. 60.4/43 gusty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Interesting lack of furnace in Tolland posts when it's cool and comfortable. Surely there will be hourly temperature posts once the heat sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 It's a d10 deterministic run...I don't think anyone is buying high heat from that excluding a poster from NE CT. 100F is rare territory anyways. I think we're more amused at the prog than anything. I agree that it looks more like a trend toward an AN pattern...probably 88-92 days like you mention and some muggy days mixed in. I feel like the solstice is around the time when summer begins to settle in anyways. oh i know Brian ... i'm just using your post as a launching point to be snarky and sarcastic ... 'freaky deeky got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Fook....maybe we do not toss GFS op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 shouldn't toss the GFS any more than accept the 00z Euro for that matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 apparently no one knows - ...which is true anyway ... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1206 PM EDT SUN JUN 12 2016VALID 12Z WED JUN 15 2016 - 12Z SUN JUN 19 2016MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAYOF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A STRENGTHENING POSITIVELY TILTEDUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY COUPLED WITH APOSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHERPOSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH/LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THECOUNTRY. ON THE EASTERN U.S. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AREINDICATING A HIGH VARIABILITY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENTOF THE UPPER TROUGH FEATURE. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NO LONGERINDICATING A RESIDUAL UPPER-LEVEL LOW ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSSOHIO VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT RATHER...PUSHING THE EASTERNTROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH A HINT OF A CUTOFFCIRCULATION. THE 06Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES WITH ITSTREND SINCE THE 00Z RUN...DEEPENS THIS BAROCLINIC TROUGHVIGOROUSLY JUST OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A DEEP SURFACECYCLONE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY NEXT SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO HASBEEN REJECTED IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE HANDLING OF THEUPPER TROUGH AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE WARMWATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIONTO SLOWLY DEVELOP AROUND THIS OFFSHORE LOW.ELSEWHERE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7 IN THE WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Tossed . What a lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Tossed . What a lol wanna put a wager on that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 Not tossed, hottest summer ever inbound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 We toss for now. Gotta watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 East wind hell for 5-6 days. Whose buying it???? It will happen!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 We toss for now. Gotta watch though. it has gotten progressively weaker every cycle since 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 EPS offers op Euro zero support. Has massive heat dome and ridge building in over the top. Op tossed far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2016 Share Posted June 12, 2016 EPS offers op Euro zero support. Has massive heat dome and ridge building in over the top. Op tossed farwut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Just noticed Baltimore Washington have dewpoints 33-34F. That's crazy for Mid June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 EPS offers op Euro zero support. Has massive heat dome and ridge building in over the top. Op tossed far EPS disagreed with the 100F the Op had at 00z...ensembles always the way to go at day 8-10. That said what Ginxy posted doesn't look too impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 EPS disagreed with the 100F the Op had at 00z...ensembles always the way to go at day 8-10. That said what Ginxy posted doesn't look too impressive. Yeah not sure what he was getting at.At any rate nor'easter tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Yeah not sure what he was getting at. At any rate nor'easter tossed cmon man there is no massive heat dome wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 cmon man there is no massive heat dome wth lol the spin cycle is on high. That EPS you posted looks pretty darn nice. Not too cold and not too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 lol the spin cycle is on high. That EPS you posted looks pretty darn nice. Not too cold and not too hot.Coc a doodle dew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Eps looking a bit severe prone in the longer range? Nice flat strong ridge across the southern half with lower than normal heights in canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 I think we want the ridge further east. I feel like the trajectory of any MCS would be south and west of SNE...but it's obviously way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 The heat and fun are coming next week and beyond regardless of what a few hobbyists might have you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Nothing special. 88-93 with dews is all we're saying. Transition to hot summer begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 88-93 with dews is all we're saying. Transition to hot summer begins Yeah..not sure how often that high end happens though. Best heat is SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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