powderfreak Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Man ... that 12z Euro run is one helluva Kevin-ass-chapped summer killer for New England.. Actually, D3 on this run is interesting. Sunday at dawn has +15 to +17C sneaky heat poking up ahead of that power house front.. . The big closed low and coastal is no longer as much of a player on this run, and it looks more sensible overall - what does one think when it comes inside of D4 ...But, it still does a face-smack cool down... big front, ....then, Kevin's preparation-H breaks out... Walled off, continental heat everywhere except us ... whole country parties ... New England continues in it's 18 month and counting bubble of cool delusion right out to the end of the run. ha! All you have to do to know if any heat is progged is see if DIT posted in this thread. If not, it's probably going to be comfortable. His lack of posts the past few days tells you more than any model could . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 you need some sort of once in 10,000 year volcano or meteor impact for that to happen in June - heh Yeah in the banter thread someone posted a web cam of MWN and you can see how "skinny" that cloud is. The moisture depth is up to like 7,500ft in elevation with clear skies above that in the upslope region. Temps just don't get cold enough in the low level orographic cloud to produce ice crystals. I've seen a few upslope freezing rain storms on the upper mountain in months like May and September because it is below freezing but the lift is so low in the atmosphere it can't hit the snow zone up at H7. Now if we had synoptic forcing with precip generated in the mid-levels...it definitely would've snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 All you have to do to know if any heat is progged is see if DIT posted in this thread. If not, it's probably going to be comfortable. His lack of posts the past few days tells you more than any model could . you know what it almost seems like ? the models are doing a hemispheric scaled tuck pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Yeah in the banter thread someone posted a web cam of MWN and you can see how "skinny" that cloud is. The moisture depth is up to like 7,500ft in elevation with clear skies above that in the upslope region. Temps just don't get cold enough in the low level orographic cloud to produce ice crystals. I've seen a few upslope freezing rain storms on the upper mountain in months like May and September because it is below freezing but the lift is so low in the atmosphere it can't hit the snow zone up at H7. Now if we had synoptic forcing with precip generated in the mid-levels...it definitely would've snowed. I will go ahead and lock 90+ starting on the 20th itself based on what I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 Yeah in the banter thread someone posted a web cam of MWN and you can see how "skinny" that cloud is. The moisture depth is up to like 7,500ft in elevation with clear skies above that in the upslope region. Temps just don't get cold enough in the low level orographic cloud to produce ice crystals. I've seen a few upslope freezing rain storms on the upper mountain in months like May and September because it is below freezing but the lift is so low in the atmosphere it can't hit the snow zone up at H7. Now if we had synoptic forcing with precip generated in the mid-levels...it definitely would've snowed. We needed a bit of seeder-feeder in this one to get actual snowflakes and didn't quite get it. There were some progs that did show RH better further up, but in the end it was pretty dry above 750mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 I will go ahead and lock 90+ starting on the 20th itself based on what I see I don't think anyone would be shocked if BDL is hitting 90 around the solstice. Seasons in seasons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 I will go ahead and lock 90+ starting on the 20th itself based on what I see 90+ in Tolland, nice. Now we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 I will go ahead and lock 90+ starting on the 20th itself based on what I see You mean like how you locked 70s today for BDL if there was any sunshine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 9, 2016 Share Posted June 9, 2016 We needed a bit of seeder-feeder in this one to get actual snowflakes and didn't quite get it. There were some progs that did show RH better further up, but in the end it was pretty dry above 750mb. Yeah had we had any precip, even light, falling from H7 we would've seen some snow. Would've been better to see a bit more cyclonic moisture and that's the benefit of closed mid-levels over FVE that can advect that better mid-level moisture back into NNE. This was pure low level lift, with a very impressive low level jet... I can't remember any other time off the top of my head that Mansfield 4,000ft was sustained in the 60s gusting to 80mph from synoptic and not convective winds in June. Also, as usual, the models vastly under-estimated QPF in this event, as even the meso-scale models on e-wall were showing just 0.01-0.07" every 6-hours. Summit had 0.83" and the base of the ski resort 0.74" from 5pm yesterday to 5pm today...tapering to 0.25" here in town. Be interesting to see what J.Spin ends up with for liquid total. You can't fight the orographics, it follows the same gradient every time, lol. No snow trace recorded and I while their observations can leave something to be desired, this was the right call. Daily Hydrometeorological Data National Weather Service Burlington VT 627 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2016 Station Precip Temperature Present Snow 24 Hrs Max Min Cur Weather New Total SWE ...Vermont... Mount Mansfield 0.83 40 32 35 Now we are getting a wave break pattern with linear clearing patches followed by cloud followed by some clearing...but you can see the start of it all is the cloud over Mansfield and that's the main orographic band right there. Follow that band of cloud over the mountains southward and it'll go right over J.Spin's house where I-89 cuts through the mountains, lol. But look how shallow that moisture is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 powderfreak, on 09 Jun 2016 - 6:06 PM, said:90+ in Tolland, nice. Now we wait. And 10 days to get there, I'm sure the forecast will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 It should warm up for sure after 20th or so. It does look warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 It should warm up for sure after 20th or so. It does look warm. Yeah this isn't sustainable this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 It should warm up for sure after 20th or so. It does look warm.Sssh . Some of these weenies think cool summer. Let them go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Damage In Tolland, on 10 Jun 2016 - 08:26 AM, said:Sssh . Some of these weenies think cool summer. Let them go Sssh . Some of these weenies think hot summer. Let them go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Meh: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/enfield-ct/06082/june-weather/2239_pc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Sssh . Some of these weenies think cool summer. Let them go To be honest I haven't see anyone here call for a cool summer straight through September. But everyone knows how you roll lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 powderfreak, on 10 Jun 2016 - 09:05 AM, said:To be honest I haven't see anyone here call for a cool summer straight through September. But everyone knows how you roll lol. I'd just like a normal summer, last year wasn't great as the hot weather came in September, too late for most to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 To be honest I haven't see anyone here call for a cool summer straight through September. But everyone knows how you roll lol.strawman in tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 summer solstice kicks off real summer, not surprising, the Met summer stuff is usually fraught with fake summer for a few days then what we are experiencing this week to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Yeah this isn't sustainable this time of year. Ah hahahaha ...that puts it nicely! yeah... it does look warm ah, 'er' at the end of the month - hell, i've been beating that drum, too. But, the tele's don't look "hot" necessarily relative to them selves? they just look warmer than ...whatever in the f it was that cause this ferkockta pattern to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 GFS brings the heat 20th on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 strawman in tolland Though I always forget "some weenies on here" interchange discussion/desires/wants/musings with actual forecasts. It's all one and the same...If you enjoy 82/55 in the summer, that's the same thing as forecasting it in the eyes of some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 GFS brings the heat 20th on You pay attention to the long range GFS now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 You pay attention to the long range GFS now?When it's texted to me by mets.. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 When it's texted to me by mets.. Yes Mets text you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Mets text you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 i have no recollection - clearly i was asleep in the photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Euro jumps in bed and bangs the GFS. Result is heat is born in 9 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Euro jumps in bed and bangs the GFS. Result is heat is born in 9 days low dews too, perfect, another round of crisp clean Canadian air too days 11-15. Businessmen are pleased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 10, 2016 Share Posted June 10, 2016 Huh? It's an inferno. Scooter will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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