Allsnow Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Nothing special.Thoughts on next weekend? You think the cutoff will make it a wash out down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Thoughts on next weekend? You think the cutoff will make it a wash out down here? I think it will be ok. Risk is more up here I think...but I'm leaning more towards is being cooler...hopefully not wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 I think it will be ok. Risk is more up here I think...but I'm leaning more towards is being cooler...hopefully not wet. Thanks. Going to the shore for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 The heat and fun are coming next week and beyond regardless of what a few hobbyists might have you think Boring upper 80s with cool downs in between. Typical summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Boring upper 80s with cool downs in between. Typical summer. There may be a token hot day of 90-95 perhaps at the tarmacs..but being near the H5 trough doesn't exactly inspire true torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 There may be a token hot day of 90-95 perhaps at the tarmacs..but being near the H5 trough doesn't exactly inspire true torches. Yeah....every op run seems to have a day or two in the extended at some point where 18C will nose in with a W component before getting pinched off with a fropa. It just doesn't look like a pattern right now that Kev is looking for...ie days and days of 95/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 It seems that these types of patterns eventually bow to the heat ridge. 1995, 1999 both had somewhat similar evolutions as we're seeing now. July looks quite warm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Yeah....every op run seems to have a day or two in the extended at some point where 18C will nose in with a W component before getting pinched off with a fropa. It just doesn't look like a pattern right now that Kev is looking for...ie days and days of 95/70.There doesn't appear to be outstanding heat like 95-100.. But weeks of upper 80's and low 90's with little cooling seems to be there on all ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Weeks? Normal highs will be in the mid 80s soon enough anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Right thru July 4 weekend looks torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Define torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 i dunno - i think it could be hotter. sorry, just looks that way to me. i have not confidence in that euro solution. it sprang up on us with 0 continuity, and just because the 00z came along with it, still isn't enough in my mind when looking at the balance of other indicators. i REALLY need to see that inside D4 ... one hint is that the other models that had that closed(ing) feature first, prior to the Euro, abandoned it and/or are showing horrible continuity on placement. i say there is a 50/50 shot that it even exists at this point, and if it does, a 50/50 shot at where to put the damn thing. secondly, in-absentia the models are flirting with powering heights to monolithic proportions ... 598 to almost 600 DM just S of our latitude like that is not inspiring merely above normal either. it's quite plausible actually to end up in something more than one day of 90-95 saddled in blasse 88's. or not... my point is, I don't think it "looks" outright banal as far as heat goes - not objectively. We can argue for less...fine, but let's get real. i'm confident in the 88-92 like we've been discussing, but see room there for a lot more with very little wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 There doesn't appear to be outstanding heat like 95-100.. But weeks of upper 80's and low 90's with little cooling seems to be there on all ensembles Weeks and weeks of hyperbole. 85-90F would be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Define torched. +0.1 departure or greater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 12z GFS looks like a roaster through D8 on the 500 mb charts - haven't seen anything else, but it's pretty much completed the 5 cycle trend to remove the cut-off. hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Torcher! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 There doesn't appear to be outstanding heat like 95-100.. But weeks of upper 80's and low 90's with little cooling seems to be there on all ensembles what's the long term precip chances look like? I'll take 80's, but some measurable precip at least once a week would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 what's the long term precip chances look like? I'll take 80's, but some measurable precip at least once a week would be good. Very dry pattern with little rain thru day 10. Some places may see none. When you build the ridge and heat over the top there's no moisture transport unless something comes along in NW flow over the top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Very dry pattern with little rain thru day 10. Some places may see none. When you build the ridge and heat over the top there's no moisture transport unless something comes along in NW flow over the top pray for t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Very dry pattern with little rain thru day 10. Some places may see none. When you build the ridge and heat over the top there's no moisture transport unless something comes along in NW flow over the top So basically the DIT trifecta. Heater, dewy, drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 So basically the DIT trifecta. Heater, dewy, drought. haha... oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Pretty warm around the solstice. The deep south gets their own weak retrograding cutoff from a piece of that trough...still a lot to iron out. I see Kevin is already high stepping to the end zone even though Don Beebe is trailing behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 @DanLeonard_wx 47s48 seconds ago GEFS flips from furnace ridge to weak trough in the east next week. Prv run right, new run left. #consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Dad's Day Disaster on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Wall to wall heat once the Euro realizes there is no storm in the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Two shoes are going to drop over the next 10-15 days. The CUTOFF next weekend fully happens. Euro all over it again. I bet the ensembles will show it now too. After the cutoff exits, a powerful vortex will dig rapidly SE out of Canada and park itself between New England and Atlantic Canada through the 4th of July and possibly beyond. Heat cancel for New England this summer. Period. This will transpire. Persistence will win. Change to hot regime is not happening for northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 We ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Wall to wall heat once the Euro realizes there is no storm in the next few runs Hate to be a hot weather party pooper but I do not see any sustainable model or pattern trends that support a forecast of extended "hot" weather never mind a "torch pattern" prior to sometime in July? I do think there is decent potential for a short period of significantly warmer than normal temps; maybe a hot day or two tossed in, but not any newsworthy extended period of hot weather. While I would be surprised if the euro's closed low verified as modeled on the operational, I think the big take-away from the euro suite is that a footprint of Northeast troughing will remain and redevelop from time to time over the next 2 or 3 weeks; it may not always mean unusual cooling, but it will likely be sufficient hold back the truly hot regime off to our west or shunt it southward of New England. One to three hot days over the next 1 to 3 weeks does not make a hot pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Hate to be a hot weather party pooper but I do not see any sustainable model or pattern trends that support a forecast of extended "hot" weather never mind a "torch pattern" prior to sometime in July? I do think there is decent potential for a short period of significantly warmer than normal temps; maybe a hot day or two tossed in, but not any newsworthy extended period of hot weather. While I would be surprised if the euro's closed low verified as modeled on the operational, I think the big take-away from the euro suite is that a footprint of Northeast troughing will remain and redevelop from time to time over the next 2 or 3 weeks; it may not always mean unusual cooling, but it will likely be sufficient hold back the truly hot regime off to our west or shunt it southward of New England. One to three hot days over the next 1 to 3 weeks does not make a hot pattern. We'll respectfully disagree. Once this trough lifts out later this week..it's coast to coast warmth including Canada. When there's LP near Hudson Bay and Canada is well AN..there's simply no mechanism for cooling. That's not to say a cool front doesn't come thru and knock temps back to normal for a day..but the heat would come roaring right back with no cold source region. Once these ridges build over the top.they like to set up shop. Sans July 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 We'll respectfully disagree. Once this trough lifts out later this week..it's coast to coast warmth including Canada. When there's LP near Hudson Bay and Canada is well AN..there's simply no mechanism for cooling. That's not to say a cool front doesn't come thru and knock temps back to normal for a day..but the heat would come roaring right back with no cold source region. Once these ridges build over the top.they like to set up shop. Sans July 2013It's seriously impossible to have an intelligent weather/meteorology discussion with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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