Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,510
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Toothache
    Newest Member
    Toothache
    Joined

#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
nflwxman

nflwxman

Posted
Posted

Opened up my phone and all I had to read was the last post. Not the nail in the coffin yet right? We still have happy hour GFS that might suck us all back in....or just plain suck.

 

 

Stranger things have happened in a 100 hour period.  Still having trouble believing the resident airmass can erode that quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

We got time.  Euro will save the day.  As we get closer the cold air will be more pronounced.   We can will this to happen.

There are enough moving parts, and we do have cold in front, to keep me somewhat interested another day or two but todays runs are pretty awful in that I can see where they are headed (less suppression from the clipper and more amped system) and it ends badly for us with nothing to hold the cold in place.  That said I am shocked at how many are acting like the blizzard didn't happen.  We knew this year would lean warm given the nino and we had a higher then normal threat for a HECS but that getting a ton of hits might be difficult.  So far things have gone to climo except we got lucky and our big hit came fairly early.  We have had some chances for more that havent worked out and we probably arent done yet.  I tend not to cancel winter in mid Feb when the latest ensembles both paint 3-6" across the area in the coming 15 days and are building a monster -EPO towards late Feb as well as indications the MJO is about to blast back into favorable phases soon.  Yea I would rather my snow come spread out in several storms but we can't get our perfect winter every year.  Maybe we get another event or two to hit and maybe not but nothing indicates its over and at least we had the HECS. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
usedtobe

usedtobe

Posted
Posted

20 degree swing in surface temperatures in one run 5 days out.  And we sit here an analyze every operational run like it's scripture. What a fun hobby this is.

 

Go Canadian?

It's cold makes no sense with its storm track .  At least too me even acknowleging that arctic airmass sometimes are stubborn.  I think that is usually with light surface winds and the GGEM has a decent gradient.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

There's no snow anywhere.

There is snow, the axis is just way outside our area.  Columbus to Toronto to northwest of Montreal get pounded.  Very little snow east of there.  Its a cutter... we know the drill, only problem is this is not the setup where a cutter can work for us, like I said with that ridging in front any track to our west the warm air will surge in before any significant precip.  The track is close enough to keep an eye on it though, its up along the blue ridge basically, not like its tracking the low into Ohio but its definitely a bad set of runs this morning after a promising 0z last night.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted

Just laughable really. 4 days away and models

Have no idea whether it's Ohio valley, over applchns, or 75 miles off midcAtlantic coast

They did well on the big snow but generally not so well otherwise and I still think they try to be way too precise too far out and thus one fly landing on a tree in the smokies allows for an entirely different solution. Try using binoculars instead of a microscope and the product well may be more useful

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted

There are enough moving parts, and we do have cold in front, to keep me somewhat interested another day or two but todays runs are pretty awful in that I can see where they are headed (less suppression from the clipper and more amped system) and it ends badly for us with nothing to hold the cold in place. That said I am shocked at how many are acting like the blizzard didn't happen. We knew this year would lean warm given the nino and we had a higher then normal threat for a HECS but that getting a ton of hits might be difficult. So far things have gone to climo except we got lucky and our big hit came fairly early. We have had some chances for more that havent worked out and we probably arent done yet. I tend not to cancel winter in mid Feb when the latest ensembles both paint 3-6" across the area in the coming 15 days and are building a monster -EPO towards late Feb as well as indications the MJO is about to blast back into favorable phases soon. Yea I would rather my snow come spread out in several storms but we can't get our perfect winter every year. Maybe we get another event or two to hit and maybe not but nothing indicates its over and at least we had the HECS.

Not to mention...We already GOT a HECS!! And even previous strong el nino years with above average snow...The bulk of it came all at once!! Ah...What's wrong with us, seriously? Lol
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...