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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

thanks Ian. Very similar if you just look at the eastern us but globally some big differences as you pointed out. We have a better starting airmass though so perhaps that offsets the worse north atlantic

yeah it's not a bad match around here. probably one of the closer ones.. the air mass before that one was a lot less impressive.

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Ian

Ian

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Not a common low pressure track on the gfs, IMO.  Can't recall seeing too many of those.

Or we forget them because they are lame. Makes sense synoptically given the low heights lakes and north and high heights east of New England.

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nflwxman

nflwxman

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Stick a fork in this winter.

 

Because of a 115 hr GFS operational prog?

 

I'm really confused why all ensemble or more skilled guidance like the para euro is being ignored for a model that runs 4 times a day.  Of course it's going to show multiple solutions.  The GFS was showing Richmond getting to 38 degrees during 1/22/16 at this range; They made it to 28 just as the precipitation ended.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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Or we forget them because they are lame. Makes sense synoptically given the low heights lakes and north and high heights east of New England.

I'm sure it happens, but usually I'd think we'd see it cut straight up west of the apps or stay a bit more south until it was further east.

 

I could be convinced otherwise if someone can give me another example this winter of a low with that track.

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Ian

Ian

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I'm sure it happens, but usually I'd think we'd see it cut straight up west of the apps or stay a bit more south until it was further east.

 

I could be convinced otherwise if someone can give me another example this winter of a low with that track.

We just started getting coastals like a week before the blizzard so I don't think there's been one this winter. I know I've seen that type of track since I've been here but I can't really recall the specific storms. Probably because they weren't that memorable.

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Ian

Ian

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Not looking good. Seems like our winter happened Jan 22-23. That sometimes happens in these strong El Niño years.

I'd say there's a reasonable chance we're "in trouble" soon. But we've got 4 weeks of OK climo to go before really falling off a cliff. Plus 1958!

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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We just started getting coastals like a week before the blizzard so I don't think there's been one this winter. I know I've seen that type of track since I've been here but I can't really recall the specific storms. Probably because they weren't that memorable.

No doubt.  I just don't think its a very common one for our area.

 

I hear the term Apps runner all the time, but we almost never see those either.

 

I don't think there's cause for alarm because of this run.  The gfs and euro ens are probably gonna lead the way at this point.

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

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Based on a single model run though?

Not based on one model run but based on the evolution of the whole season. It seems like more times than not we are chasing conditions favorable for snow...IE it's too warm and need dynamic or evaporative cooling, track not good, cold air residence time off, no blocking etc.

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baseball0618

baseball0618

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So protective....maybe he actually likes this forum and enjoys reading what you all write and isn't here to boast or brag.

I use another forum for my local weather chatter, but come here on occasion just to read thoughts and such.  However, to make a comment that there is a "typical" LP track is asinine.  Would he make that comment if the LP tracked to Jacksonville and due north delivering snow to his backyard?  No. but since the track the GFS portrays isn't snowy therefore it's atypical?  It's weenieism at it's finest.  All LP tracks are driven by the weather pattern and the overall synoptics involved at that time.  I am not syaing this will be the ultimate outcome but to call the track atypical is flawed logic. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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We just started getting coastals like a week before the blizzard so I don't think there's been one this winter. I know I've seen that type of track since I've been here but I can't really recall the specific storms. Probably because they weren't that memorable.

And to clarify a little further, based on your comment about the coastals, it seems to me that we had an event either in Dec or early Jan where we had a low come up from central Ga and the Carolinas, good track but too warm.  One of the gfs models was showing that same sort of thing yesterday.

 

My issue with this low track is that it's basically a left hook toward the north once it hits the SC upstate.  It had basically come due east for the prior 12 hours.  Just don't think I've seen a lot of em do that lately.

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