BTRWx

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Everything posted by BTRWx

  1. I have some personal matters to deal with. I would like my account removed. Please.
  2. The worst trolls are the expert band-wagoners on topics they aren't experts on.
  3. Weak nina winters can be the toughest to forecast imo. The last few are a good example of that idea.
  4. You know something big is going to happen when this thread has over 900 posts on November 1.
  5. I honestly enjoyed tracking all the near misses last year and especially the sleet fest that lasted with abundant qpf. That storm could have really scored us something big if we were a few degrees colder.
  6. Once I get my wifi back, I'll help hunt down some fun personal stories, humerous ancdeotes, and outrageous things said.
  7. I just realized the +snow weak nina winters don't look so weak in the enso department before those seasons have a chance. I'll still try to focus on positive insight. .... winter on the way!
  8. Support is there for a .... winter.
  9. Lucky to you all, my internet is out for the rest of the day. Happy Halloween! eta: My ghost may or may not return.
  10. Thanks! I'll update the maps to show the arctic region. eta: Do you have a monthly blend of that?
  11. It's still a notable trend. I think people are approaching this from different reference points. Those ssta maps George shared from last year show what went wrong and when. This year would have to trend in the opposite direction from cool to warm almost like we are seeing now, but it's still too early to see how the PDO behaves as Bob said.
  12. I don't remember where I saw this idea (it might be in the forums somewhere), but I saw a note that the long term winter signals from 2013-2015 had multiple climate monthlies fail miserably with false-torches. eta: Weatherbell's updated winter discussion is where I saw this. Don't completely ignore implications! https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2017-18-october-outlook eta eta: Bobchill, there's your challenge!
  13. This is an interesting thought. Before enso trended predominantly toward a weak nina, recall I made a comment mid-late summer that I was booking on 2016-2017 2006-2007 that eventually became a nino. My idea on that has obviously changed, but the more neutral signal is quite fascinating!
  14. Personally, I like early December climo snow pattern to be the big boom/bust for this winter.
  15. Weak versus moderate teleconnection signals seem increasingly important to me. Moderate nina is highly unlikely this winter.
  16. It doesn't guarantee favorable trends, but it could help.
  17. Bastardi mentioned an interesting theory about modoki signals. The same way modoki nino winters benefit our region, Bastardi claims the modoki nina winters develop cold over the inter-mountain west. I posted a chart not too long ago comparing weak nina years and whether they showed modoki signals. The east based 1.2 enso region is where I want to see the nina for hope in the long range. People want optimism right? The east nina may be more likely for this winter.
  18. I was wondering when that article would be mentioned.
  19. The storm disrupted FIOS imby, so my wifi is running on the backup battery temporarily. It was an impressive blow through here!
  20. Please specify any usage of "mixing" to prevent confusion.