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About BTRWx

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  • Birthday 05/06/1989

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    Alexandria, VA (Fairfax County line)
  1. Am I close?
  2. Thanks! The Europeans are coming up with a heck of a lot more data sets these days, but only a select few are free. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/extended-range-forecasts
  3. What's the difference between euro weeklies and the eps or are they one in the same?
  4. Which weeklies does he use if anyone knows the answer? I'd guess the cfsv2? What's interesting to me is I think JB does a stellar job of anticipating model trends even if his magnitude tends to be over-hyped. I can't think of another met who points out an h5 map so easily publicly to say "this is why this output will not verify in this region and here is what to expect." I had a subscription with wxbell last year and I still watch every video from them I can. I'd honestly favor eps weeklies over anything climate-based for the medium-range because of resolution, but that's personal preference. I think ttdb is catching up with them with the data offerings all except the fine details of the ecmwf products, so no complaints! I'm curious if the cfs weeklies on tropicaltidbits verifies his analysis?
  5. Thank you. I don't remember reading that.
  6. I tried to send this as a pm, but wasn't allowed so I hope people won't hurt the messenger just for asking... Why do you favor the arctic teleconnections over the Pacific this year? Is it not better to go with the signals I tend to go with the signals furthest from neutral. Just wondering
  7. CFSvn w/e is so overrated
  8. But remember each of us would do something different with a hammer. I would use it to build a structure without actually touching the physical hammer. If February verifies like some of the seasonal forecaster pros have been hinting at (Cohen, DT, JB), then many of the local winter outlooks could verify quite well! To me there's a big difference between someone saying with confidence that our winter is completely done versus speculating on multiple possibilities for better or worse. The current pattern is challenging and was anticipated over the last couple weeks. Our best climo for cold temps from about January 13 to 23 for cold is ongoing soon approaching while the MJO is actually being modeled to continue to go into favorable territory into phase 2. But one example of a mecs during a crappy mjo was 2003! The signals in the long range are mixed and that's expected! Let's not hammer anything just yet. eta: Also cips
  9. What happened to yesterday when the hype was all about the long-range signal for February? Your synopsis sounds like that exact scenario. It's still a long way off, but those are the exact signals we are looking for with +h5 near Greenland and Alaska. It's much better to see the ensembles spitting out a favorable pattern before it retrogrades than the other way around. That's how model chaos works! This is hour 372 from the gefs. It's not pretty. But when you subtract off a week of chaos, this is what we're left with. I'd assume this is how the epo can more than save us late in the game similar to what happened in 2014 or 2015 (I don't remember which one). and finally, if you're really lucky the least chaos possible in the shorter-range hour 60 or so from CIPS for the Southeast region shows a serious treat as the number 1 analog at h5 almost exactly like I was speculating yesterday in the analog thread. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F060&rundt=2017011912&sort=500HGHT BOOM 60 hr CIPS
  10. yep, I'll throw it all together in one post and edit it as I go. Is one page fair game?
  11. Our reactions to disagreements have been absolutely ridiculous. It's as if that's being depicted as equivalent to harassment or something along those lines. Meltdown? funny