#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[Amped]

Looks further east than 18z, through 126, hope it holds.

 

Edit: 850 line in same as 18z place at 132hrs

[Heisy]

GFS gonna go HAM with this low....Some front end snow...OT, but honestly, if this ends up being a classic interior bomb, I'd be down for a road trip

[Heisy]

This run going to deliver the goods in a huge way to NW VA/ W MD...etc

[NinjaWarrior2]

A bomb for the western suburbs this run. Seems like it is slightly stronger and quicker.

[Ian]

It's caving to the Euro but whatever.

[Bob Chill]

It's caving to the Euro but whatever.

All the makings of a civil war event.

[Amped]

SNE gets torched this run lol .

[Ian]

All the makings of a civil war event.

I admit the predecessor cold has me more interested than I might be otherwise but GFS v Euro at this range mostly a no brainer esp if the GFS is moving toward the Euro. Just so happens we have to go through some crush runs while it gets there.

 

But the Euro could be too amped since it does that.. though usually a bit more at range IMO. 0z will be huge.

[Heisy]

My step dad's brother has a cabin in Vermont, anyone coming with me?!

[Bob Chill]

I admit the predecessor cold has me more interested than I might be otherwise but GFS v Euro at this range mostly a no brainer esp if the GFS is moving toward the Euro. Just so happens we have to go through some crush runs while it gets there.

But the Euro could be too amped since it does that.. though usually a bit more at range IMO. 0z will be huge.

This one is particularly tough and you and I don't live in a good spot. It would be painful to get 95% rain while a 30-45min drive gets nuked. That's what I'm mentally preparing myself for. It's glaringly on the table. A couple inches over a 3 hour period would be a soft blow vs a dusting (or shutout) to gully washer while others nearby get destroyed.

[Rd9108]

This one is particularly tough and you and I don't live in a good spot. It would be painful to get 95% rain while a 30-45min drive gets nuked. That's what I'm mentally preparing myself for. It's glaringly on the table. A couple inches over a 3 hour period would be a soft blow vs a dusting (or shutout) to gully washer while others nearby get destroyed.

Try missing 20 inches by 40 miles and only getting 5 and then we will talk.

[Fozz]

I haven't seen a nice paste bomb in a while.... I'll take my chances with this.

[Heisy]

This is the most frustrating part about this hobby. We go from record cold to a rainstorm lol....If it is going to rain though I hope it bombs the hell out. I might seriously consider going to VT if something like the GFS is on the table 48 hours out. 

[cae]

It looks to me like the rain / snow line around DC has shifted slightly east from 18z.

 

[Heisy]

Meanwhile, FWIW, the GGEM looks really good @ 120 hours

[Heisy]

GGEM gonna lay down the thump 

[AlaskaETC]

GFS isn't that bad, unless you mean Philadelphia.

[Fozz]

This one is particularly tough and you and I don't live in a good spot. It would be painful to get 95% rain while a 30-45min drive gets nuked. That's what I'm mentally preparing myself for. It's glaringly on the table. A couple inches over a 3 hour period would be a soft blow vs a dusting (or shutout) to gully washer while others nearby get destroyed.

 

How well did you do in Jan 2011?

[Bob Chill]

Try missing 20 inches by 40 miles and only getting 5 and then we will talk.

We might be talking soon

[Heisy]

GFS isn't that bad, unless you mean Philadelphia.

 

Verbatim, it would be a win in my books for you guys, but like Ian said it took a big step towards a EURO like solution

[Kat]

It looks to me like the rain / snow line around DC has shifted slightly east from 18z.

Looks improved and a lot like the dgex run too.

[Bob Chill]

How well did you do in Jan 2011?

I don't remember all that well. I had a 102+ fever and the real deal flu. I was in a strange place thinking god was punishing me. Lol

From what I remember the front running stuff sucked here and then got 10-12" of paste. Lost power and house dropped to the mid 40's and had 6 feet of blankets piled on top and was still shivering.

[Bob Chill]

Jan 2011 was a dynamic bowling ball. This setup isn't apples to apples at all.

[cae]

GGEM is west.

 

[Ji]

Yea this is over. Gfs will be in toledo by 18z

[weathervswife]

Ukie shifted way east from 12z

[SnowGoose69]

Yea this is over. Gfs will be in toledo by 18z

Lol I don't think you need to worry about anything that far west in this event, something along or just west of 95, certainly, but probably not much west of that.

[Bob Chill]

It's been a while since we've had a true long track longitude vs latitude storm. Feb 14 is in the ballpark of what guidance is showing but not as far west or as extreme. That storm was 1-2 punch with surface and upper level lows so not good comparison.

I don't have the rainman memories like many on here. When was the last extreme gradient NC-NNE storm?

[Ji]

It's been a while since we've had a true long track longitude vs latitude storm. Feb 14 is in the ballpark of what guidance is showing but not as far west or as extreme. That storm was 1-2 punch with surface and upper level lows so not good comparison.

I don't have the rainman memories like many on here. When was the last extreme gradient NC-NNE storm?

1966 lol?

[Ian]

GEFS mean has a great surface track, basically mouth of Bay to inside benchmark. But it's warmer etc. Dunno about members. But again we might be just moving through the sweetspot as it heads west. The height patterns to our north are basically opposite what we want during the storm and they all would favor west IMO.