#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[MacintoshPro]

that would make this a pretty good winter

 

Meh. 35" is nothing compared to the 37" you got in the blizzard.

[Amped]

GFS caved halfway, it zips the 850mb line through I95 at 100mph and some how manages to stall it before it gets to me.

[EB89]

GFS caved halfway, it zips the 850mb line through I95 at 100mph and some how manages to stall it before it gets to me.

Definitely looks good for us!

[snowfan]

At 138, the GFS has a low running up thru SC. Looks nothing like 12z.

[Ian]

This run is probably meaningless but I'm sure people will enjoy it either way.

[MacintoshPro]

Instant clown maps has 6" for DC... don't know if right but they usually overcompensate in marginal events so run may be good.

[kurtstack]

WOW - Happy hour GFS just one-upped the para GFS lol. Heavy snow and pefect track for I-95 and NW.  Total pounding!

[snowfan]

Ha. The gfs snow map. A foot at bwi, nothing in Annapolis

[RichmondTarHeel]

I choose to believe the 18z GFS is king.

 

Also, that's it;  I'm moving further west into Loudon.  Commute be damned. 

[MacintoshPro]

not that it matters, but surface temps are at 32-34 for the whole event. DC does get like 0.8" in a short period. Snowquester part 2?

 

Also snow maps show me and Ian getting 10" and DCA a half inch of slush.

[snowfan]

Because of the track diff, temps never torch on the gfs. 35/36 max at bwi. 850's and 925's stay right around freezing throughout.

[Scraff]

Ha. The gfs snow map. A foot at bwi, nothing in Annapolis

I'm going with this until it gets taken away in 6 hours.  

[snowfan]

Qpf:

BWI: 1.5

DCA: 1.5

FDK: .9

Westminster: 1.0

Winchester: .9

[Ji]

Sold

[AlaskaETC]

18z is the perfect set up for a "more N and W, mixing in cities" article

[Bob Chill]

Sold

 

Me too. Almost nothing can go wrong except everything

[stormtracker]

Me too. Almost nothing can go wrong except everything

See you at 11:30 when everyone will be bailing.  This is such a sh*t storm.

[midatlanticweather]

Me too. Almost nothing can go wrong except everything

Can I sign too please! 

 

LOL! 

[Ji]

HM says to watch weekend clipper for possible reinforcement of confluence..could prevent cutter

[clskinsfan]

18Z GFS is a sleet storm out here according to Bufkit. But who cares at this range.

[snowfan]

Mean snowfall on the GEFS above 2" in DC. 10 members w 2"+

[Bob Chill]

See you at 11:30 when everyone will be bailing. This is such a sh*t storm.

18z gefs definitely better than 12z. Good number of members with ok snow east of DC. That's my gauge. I don't like seeing large #s of fall line and west stuff. Indicative of razor thin margins. 18z gefs will keep me encouraged until 11:30.

[WinterWxLuvr]

18z gefs definitely better than 12z. Good number of members with ok snow east of DC. That's my gauge. I don't like seeing large #s of fall line and west stuff. Indicative of razor thin margins. 18z gefs will keep me encouraged until 11:30.

Funny the different perspectives that we look at ensembles from.

The mean did improve region wide.

[Ian]

Problem is GFS and its buddies may just be moving to an inland scenario.

[Wonderdog]

It looked as if the whole system sped up just enough. Possibly climbed onto a different vort. It didn't appear that there was any Great Lakes system to screw with ours.

[Bob Chill]

Funny the different perspectives that we look at ensembles from.

The mean did improve region wide.

It's a backyard sport. A disclaimer with all my posts is my yard is centric to my words. Haha.

You're in a better spot for this one no matter how you slice it

[Bob Chill]

Problem is GFS and its buddies may just be moving to an inland scenario.

I don't buy the op at all yet. Ensembles improved. 12z had more inland and all rain solutions than 18z. Whether it means anything won't be known for too many days.

[NinjaWarrior2]

FWIW 18z DGEX is also "good". Would be a general 4-8" for all except SE Maryland. Although it's against the west trend so right now I can't say that solution is likely. Also #pointlessobservation , 18z JMA at 84hrs has the High slightly west and slightly stronger than 12z JMA, which was an inland runner.

[Heisy]

While I am pretty much sold on this being a cutter/rain storm. The one thing that could be a saving grace is the clipper that preludes the storm. HM mentioned it could help stop this from cutting. On future model runs root for this piece of energy to trend MUCH STRONGER. Basically it would act as its own reinforcing cold shot, and shift the bar. zone east. Still need good timing & everything as well though...

 

[Heisy]

^ It also knocks down the riding temporarily.