#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[mitchnick]

HM says to watch weekend clipper for possible reinforcement of confluence..could prevent cutter

Oh, what does he know!

Obviously, j/k.

Actually, it was that clipper th Wednesday before the blizzard that saved our azzes

[CAPE]

18z gefs definitely better than 12z. Good number of members with ok snow east of DC. That's my gauge. I don't like seeing large #s of fall line and west stuff. Indicative of razor thin margins. 18z gefs will keep me encouraged until 11:30.

Yeah a definite improvement. I count 10 that are at least decent for my area. Still not sure it means much, unless the guidance is wrong about the +NAO, 50-50 High, AO headed to + territory, and loss of the EPO ridge. PNA still looks ok lol.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Oh, what does he know!

Obviously, j/k.

Actually, it was that clipper th Wednesday before the blizzard that saved our azzes

 

Ninja'd!  I was just about to make a comment that it's reminiscent of the Wednesday clipper/light snow before the blizzard (the "mini-Commutageddon").  In no way am I comparing the blizzard to the current set up and event, but getting some kind of reinforcing shortwave that helps keep the cold air in more might be a good sign.

[psuhoffman]

The gefs are even better when you consider the snow Max in the mountains is mostly from upslope the next few days. For the storm the max snowfall is actually right through our area. The lower totals are probably indicative of a more sheared out system. But like Ian said this could be just a step on the way to a euro solution. I'm also slightly interested in the possability of something right behind this. There are hints of a second low developing on the heels and perhaps we have a brief window behind this if it cuts befire the ridge out west blasts in.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Problem is GFS and its buddies may just be moving to an inland scenario.

In the proper location I think that can still work...at least for a healthy mixed event. I think the type of cold that's coming is going to tough to budge, especially if we can keep a high in the ne at least at the latitude of about Mass.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's a backyard sport. A disclaimer with all my posts is my yard is centric to my words. Haha.

You're in a better spot for this one no matter how you slice it

Sure. We both have problems that are well documented here. You guys with temps and us with precip.

[WinterWxLuvr]

What time does the Euro para normally roll in?

[Bob Chill]

What time does the Euro para normally roll in?

It's late. Usually between 5-7. Sometimes it skips a cycle.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's late. Usually between 5-7. Sometimes it skips a cycle.

Must have skipped today.

[nj2va]

Must have skipped today.

 

WxBell may be updating with it now...at least the timestamp says its the 12z run but "404" displays instead of the maps.

[Heisy]

12z EURO para out to 39 hours on SV

[Heisy]

Thru 123 it def isn't as amped as OP EURO

[franklin NCwx]

12z EURO para out to 39 hours on SV

let us know if it cuts or stays the course with the 0z solution. Its not loading on wxbell.

[Heisy]

It still cuts, but its not as wrapped up as 12z OP EURO

[cae]

Here's the snowfall map from the 18z GFS.  A brutal cutoff from North Carolina to Massachusetts, right through the major cities on the fall line. 

 

[franklin NCwx]

Thru 123 it def isn't as amped as OP EURO

what's the low track?

[HighStakes]

Right now we hate the idea of a cutter but imagine if by sunday night we're trying to will it north because it became a southern slider.

[Heisy]

Para gives some ice it looks like to interior SE states before quickly changing over.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Para gives some ice it looks like to interior SE states before quickly changing over.

What about Virginia on north?

[dan123]

FWIW 18z DGEX is also "good". Would be a general 4-8" for all except SE Maryland. Although it's against the west trend so right now I can't say that solution is likely. Also #pointlessobservation , 18z JMA at 84hrs has the High slightly west and slightly stronger than 12z JMA, which was an inland runner.

Do you have a link to the 18z jma?

[Ji]

What about Virginia on north?

rain to sleet to hail

[yoda]

rain to sleet to hail

Thunderstorms sound good

[aldie 22]

rain to sleet to hail

Locusts?

[WinterWxLuvr]

rain to sleet to hail

Haha...somehow I don't see that one happening.

[WeSuck]

I just realized the thread name haha. This actually has the day peggedo Question is, will it be snow or rain

[mitchnick]

Gotta admit that when I run a loop of tonight's NAM 500 mb, I noticed a few interesting features. First, that the short wave heading se from the Dakotas has a trajectory similar to the preceding one that heads south of us. Second, that there is a bootleg block over Greenland at the end of the run that looks semi-stable from the vortices doing a dance in se Canada. Finally, there's another short wave heading se that's on the sw corner of Hudsons Bay that looks to be headed to join the party in se Canada which "might" help to invigorate the se Canada vortices enough to act as a pseudo 50/50 block. I'm not claiming that the NAM is right, just that the features look promising. Plus, that block would have to hold to make everything I said have any use to us.

[mattie g]

Locusts?

 

Maybe.  But the Potomac will definitely be running red with the blood of the Northern MD weenies who will throw themselves from the Millard E. Tydings Bridge.

[Heisy]

I like the fact that on the 00z NAM the lead wave is very strong...This is the "clipper" That HM and others have pointed out earlier which would help us. 

[yuki neko]

That first vort at hr 84 is stronger than 18z GFS

[Heisy]

The clipper looks strong on the GFS @ 96 hours...