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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016


Ji

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I'm pretty sure the UKMET is going to end up wrong here, the Euro Para which has been insanely good is extremely flat and the Canadian which normally drops bombs at this range wants no part of it

The flatter weaker solutions are the ones that are laying down some snow in va.  I hope you are right. 

It looks like the Canadian is flat and weaker because it's got that northern stream system acting as a kicker, which doesn't allow it to amp up like the Ukie. 

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12z UKIE at 144 is 987mb in SW VA/S VA... was in S AR at 120 so its moving ENE... we rain buckets

I think it would be hard to tell exactly what that would be since we have no 850 or surface temps.  At 120 that high, though not ideal, would still hold in some CAD, especially coming out of a big time cold snap.  So maybe some front end stuff?

 

BTW, does temp and precip info not exist for the UKIE at that range, or is there just no source for it for the public?

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Ggem? The quick glance I took had almost no previp making it up our way. Maybe dca south got scraped by an inch befire the low got kicked out.

Do i have different maps? Somebody said it was a rain thing and I'm looking at it don't see rain on it.  

ETA: the color scheme on AMwx makes the precip look heavier than it is...but still, it isn't rain?

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It's been a weird year. They all have their twists and turns though. The NS stuff is mostly pac energy rolling over the top of the PNA ridge. At least lately. That's to be expected with a +pna. The issue is we are devoid of good blocking most of the time so there is no mechanism to cleanly force the pac energy down below us. It's been getting a free pass to scoot across the northern tier.

Great explanation.  Thanks Bob.

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Ggem? The quick glance I took had almost no previp making it up our way. Maybe dca south got scraped by an inch befire the low got kicked out.

I would take the general idea of the GGEM. Or the GFS. Flatter/faster/weaker will prob get me a few inches. With the pattern as it is, if you do well up there, I likely get a big rainer.

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GEFS not very encouraging. Mixed bag but lots of rainers. A step back from 6z. 

 

Here's the general spread of snow ideas. Pretty weak along the western tier. Which seem like an outlier but who knows. 

 

 

 

attachicon.gifgefssno2.JPG

Gonna go out on a limb here and say that e7, e19, and e20 won't verify.  986 over Elkins, 1005 over Manassas, and 993 on Wes' front  porch.  :P

 

It is a step back from 6z, but an improvement over 0z, so at least we have that.

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The GEFS is great tool in understanding where MSLP may fall at any given part of time, but it's a lower resolution product.  It's not necessarily going to pick up on a cold air wedge like an operational within 84 hours will.  The spread on lows is still huge and doesn't inspire confidence for any particular solution.  Winter is over talk is silly.

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Instant weather maps or pivotal weather. May start frozen but its a cutter.

and it's not like the 5H looks all that bad, location and strength, but consider no blocking/50-50 low, we're doomed

500mb day 6

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest

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