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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

No shock that JB is spinning this into a major snowstorm. So all the models are dead wrong in his view? Lol Just mind boggling why people pay for his forecasts anymore. He has become unreadable. I stopped paying for his forecasts back in 2012 when he kept calling for a massive arctic outbreak that February and we all know how that turned out.

He is not. He is very adamant about changing to rain, but also says front end snow is a good possibility for our area. That's still very well a possibility. Watch the eps trend the other way the next couple runs. We don't need much of a shift in the snow axes to score big.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Posted

No shock that JB is spinning this into a major snowstorm. So all the models are dead wrong in his view? Lol Just mind boggling why people pay for his forecasts anymore. He has become unreadable. I stopped paying for his forecasts back in 2012 when he kept calling for a massive arctic outbreak that February and we all know how that turned out.

he could be good if he would cut out the spin and politics and just make a forecast and adjust as needed. He is too stubborn. He traps himself by making crazy long range calls then having to chase them. He said something about 10" dc to Bos a few days ago for this i think so now he is probably stuck holding onto that and trying to make it happen. His comments on the euro may be right I don't know but he goes against all guidance way too often considering he is wrong 90% of the time when he does that.
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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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I don't really buy the latest euro solution.  Cold air will be harder to dislodge at the surface and the mid levels.  And the track of the surface low is a climatological rarity. It won't take that track.  Certainly the usual favored areas are favored this time around too, but the ultimate solution should be colder and I expect  more precip to be thrown ahead of the main event...

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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How are his videos political?

Half the time it's 5 minute rants about how global warming is a liberal conspiracy and the other half he is whining about how his forecast was right even if it didn't snow in said location. Or telling people what they should expect or be happy with. He is the only met I know that does that. Just make a freaking forecast. Stop wasting time trying to justify it. It's either right or wrong and if you are right enough you won't have to spin like that.
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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

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Parallel GFS is faster with the shortwave digging in Texas by about 6 hours at 102 compared to the operational GFS.  Also less ridging out ahead of it compared to the 12z GFS at 108 when the shortwave is in that position.  We'll see if that helps us at all shortly. 

 

ETA: Not a very different MSLP track from it's 6z run.

 

ETA #2:  Not a terrible run.  DC metro gets snow Monday afternoon and night and changes over early Tuesday morning. Only about 0.25 after the changeover.  

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87storms

87storms

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I don't really buy the latest euro solution. Cold air will be harder to dislodge at the surface and the mid levels. And the track of the surface low is a climatological rarity. It won't take that track. Certainly the usual favored areas are favored this time around too, but the ultimate solution should be colder and I expect more precip to be thrown ahead of the main event...

I'm kinda with you on this one. It's hard to get real cold here and we're doing that. I'd expect at least a snow mix to rain with this but we shall see.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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No shock that JB is spinning this into a major snowstorm. So all the models are dead wrong in his view? Lol Just mind boggling why people pay for his forecasts anymore. He has become unreadable. I stopped paying for his forecasts back in 2012 when he kept calling for a massive arctic outbreak that February and we all know how that turned out.

He's not spinning a major snowstorm. Guess you didn't read it, just piled on.
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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He is not. He is very adamant about changing to rain, but also says front end snow is a good possibility for our area. That's still very well a possibility. Watch the eps trend the other way the next couple runs. We don't need much of a shift in the snow axes to score big.

he did say change to rain but implied a lot of snow first. That's not 1-3" then driving rain. He specifically said 6" line up 95 I think and at one point said 10" dc to Bos which I guess he has backed off on but don't misrepresent it as he thinks it's mostly rain.

ETA: I'm sorry I started this. I forgot how much of a lightning rod jb can be. If you want to continue about jb please post in banter and I'll reply there.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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Half the time it's 5 minute rants about how global warming is a liberal conspiracy and the other half he is whining about how his forecast was right even if it didn't snow in said location. Or telling people what they should expect or be happy with. He is the only met I know that does that. Just make a freaking forecast. Stop wasting time trying to justify it. It's either right or wrong and if you are right enough you won't have to spin like that.

Don't most mets do that? To me that's what verification is.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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I'm kinda with you on this one. It's hard to get real cold here and we're doing that. I'd expect at least a snow mix to rain with this but we shall see.

 

It certainly could happen the way it is depicted or even worse.  But we usually do pretty well even with rotting air masses and this one is actually pretty fresh.  Usually when we go from teens to 55, it is a Nina and the low goes to Chicago or something like that.  Plus the euro track never happens. So it will either go west or east of there, and my guess is east....either way, euro is probably too delayed and we get more moisture thrown into the cold dome before we flip...

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Ian

Ian

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It certainly could happen the way it is depicted or even worse.  But we usually do pretty well even with rotting air masses and this one is actually pretty fresh.  Usually when we go from teens to 55, it is a Nina and the low goes to Chicago or something like that.  Plus the euro track never happens. So it will either go west or east of there, and my guess is east....either way, euro is probably too delayed and we get more moisture thrown into the cold dome before we flip...

I usually agree with you but not sure how you can be so absolute. The track does happen sometimes. I think model consensus at this point argues for it to be onshore at the least. Models have the high offshore by Monday afternoon. That's not our typical way of sealing in cold air. That things are too delayed seems like a primary hope for now.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

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he did say change to rain but implied a lot of snow first. That's not 1-3" then driving rain. He specifically said 6" line up 95 I think and at one point said 10" dc to Bos which I guess he has backed off on but don't misrepresent it as he thinks it's mostly rain.

ETA: I'm sorry I started this. I forgot how much of a lightning rod jb can be. If you want to continue about jb please post in banter and I'll reply there.

+1

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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I usually agree with you but not sure how you can be so absolute. The track does happen sometimes. I think model consensus at this point argues for it to be onshore at the least. Models have the high offshore by Monday afternoon. That's not our typical way of sealing in cold air. That things are too delayed seems like a primary hope for now.

 

well...I said it could happen that way...perhaps I am too absolute about the track, but that is a very uncommon track - it is almost always east or west of us......I don't expect a clean all snow coastal, but I expect something more wintry at least on the front end than the euro depicts...a fresh air mass with a retreating high isn't a bad setup for us to get front end at the very least...I guess I should have made clear I am not expecting some big, clean event.  Just something more wintry than the 12z Euro...I don't think the 12z euro solution is necessarily any more realistic than the 0z last night.  But models tend to underestimate CAD from this range and drive storms up the gut.  We often do well with pretty stale rotting air masses - at least on the front end.  This is fresh cold.  Of course it could be a total screw job.  But it is usually a Nina pattern with the low well west.  Still 100 hours out.  I'm not throwing in the towel yet.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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I usually agree with you but not sure how you can be so absolute. The track does happen sometimes. I think model consensus at this point argues for it to be onshore at the least. Models have the high offshore by Monday afternoon. That's not our typical way of sealing in cold air. That things are too delayed seems like a primary hope for now.

I'm not sure what to think but imo a clean off shore track (like off the coast in NC and up) seems like the lowest probability attm. Otoh- the vort seems to sharpen a bit late for west of the apps or right up the apps.

Taking a total guess based on what I've seen the last couple days buy I think the goal posts for slp are I-81 to VA Beach. Just makes the most sense in my brain unless we get consensus otherwise.

A lot of the eps members do get ok precip in here by 0z tues and generally show that the op was probably a bit late in that dept.

2" isn't outlandish to hope for. That's where my bar is. Then again my bar was 3" for the recent debacle so I might be too optimistic again.

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