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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

You're forgetting how weenie-ish some of us are when it comes to snow..

I'll be thrilled if we get 2-4" during the day on Monday even if it pours after.. you know that. We all have our general roles at this point.. they're pretty well known to people who read a lot.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

I was up. It was cool except nighttime snow is kind of useless to me. The next day totally ruined it as far as happy memories go. I'm not sure where I'd rank it, probably in the top 10 I've seen here but barely.

I was up too. Watching the heavy snow flip to heavy rain in a matter of minutes. I only got 4" here though lol. Was pretty pathetic.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Pretty sure last year's low was over 1000mb and mostly moved west to east. Not sure how far that analog can go. Plus the high was off shore the day of the big snow not the day before the big snow.

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
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We all like snow but some of us tend to lean one way or another more often than not. It's not a big deal.. it's quite apparent over time who leans which way. I think we could all make a list of people who will lean snow favorable and those who will lean snow unfavorable in a majority of solutions and the lists would look rather similar. I tend to lean pessimistic, I won't pretend that I don't. It's not just to make you or someone else sad though. I also bang the drum plenty when needed.

I would say I do not go to a diet site to read about how to eat fattening foods nor do I find it beneficial to endorse the myriads of ways it won't snow in a winter weather forum. I know some of you nice folks think the no snow talk is "for our own good" but the fact is we are past being in need of that enlightenment
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I would say I do not go to a diet site to read about how to eat fattening foods nor do I find it beneficial to endorse the myriads of ways it won't snow in a winter weather forum. I know some of you nice folks think the no snow talk is "for our own good" but the fact is we are past bring in need of that enlightenment

I'm not really sure how to respond. I want us to be cordial. If favoring the best solutions is all we can do then it's not hard to explain why the forums are increasingly the discussion place of the past.
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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

Pretty sure last year's low was over 1000mb and mostly moved west to east. Not sure how far that analog can go. Plus the high was off shore the day of the big snow not the day before the big snow.

 

You referring to that February 21 event, I assume?  I don't remember how strong that one was, but I'm sure it was weaker than what the models are indicating for this one.  Can't recall either how much the high had moved off for that one relative to what is expected in this one for Monday.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

We're still kinda far out, no? Why aren't the ensembles a more useful tool at this range? It seems like all we're talking about are op runs.

We're at the range when op trends are useful. Trend last night and today has been west. If that continues tonight and tomorrow then we have run to run consistency at a reasonable range.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
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When I said last weeks storm would become a Cleveland superbomb it trended way east.  This weeks storm will almost definitely trend Cleveland superbomb.

 

LOL!!!  I see what you're doing there.

 

As someone who lived in Cleveland for that "superbomb" in 1978, this one's got a long way to go to reach 957 mb and near zero degree temperatures with 50+ MPH winds...even in Ohio!  :lol:

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87storms

87storms

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I don't even consider Feb 2014 a snowstorm in retrospect. It was fun while it ripped but I'd rank something like Mar 09 ahead of it. If we're looking to pad sure.. I know others in DC think it sucked too, as they said so at the time.

 

that storm may have been better just north of the city.  in bethesda, i got about a foot.  it was ripping overnight.  not that much different than the blizzard as far as the night part is concerned.  the next day when it switched was kind of a buzzkill, but still an overnight mecs.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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You referring to that February 21 event, I assume? I don't remember how strong that one was, but I'm sure it was weaker than what the models are indicating for this one. Can't recall either how much the high had moved off for that one relative to what is expected in this one for Monday.

Yes. I just looked at daily wx maps on WPC. Don't see it in NARR tho it's prob in the wxbell atlas maps. Think it's a valid reminder we don't need perfect but if this low is ripping as shown I wouldn't expect too similar.
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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
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We're at the range when op trends are useful. Trend last night and today has been west. If that continues tonight and tomorrow then we have run to run consistency at a reasonable range.

 

Indeed.  Today's runs, starting with 12Z really, have been highly discouraging.  Even the ensembles are "meh", though they might in the mean look somewhat marginally better.  I don't think the Euro's extreme solution will necessarily occur, but I'm about to warm up the punter on even expecting a halfway decent front end thump on this one given the trends.  To be honest, the other day I was thinking this could be similar to February last year (though not exactly the same idea), which I would have been cool with.  Not anymore.  I know some have been saying that the models might be "rushing" the retreat of cold air, but fact is, they've gone to a more intense system and nothing to hold in the cold.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

We all like snow but some of us tend to lean one way or another more often than not. It's not a big deal.. it's quite apparent over time who leans which way. I think we could all make a list of people who will lean snow favorable and those who will lean snow unfavorable in a majority of solutions and the lists would look rather similar. I tend to lean pessimistic, I won't pretend that I don't. It's not just to make you or someone else sad though.  I also bang the drum plenty when needed.

Geography will answer that. :P

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Ian

Ian

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I'm not sure how to respond to this. What's wrong with straight talk about weather, both the weenie and the realistic? Not every event works out...not even close. What is the point of deluding yourself throughout the tracking phase, only to completely meltdown when an event fails and repeat that all over again.

Some of us aren't here to hear sunshine pumping. There is value in looking at this hobby objectively...

I try to be honest here I don't really appreciate the allusion of otherwise. If you've lived in DC a few years you understand that forecasting no snow just because often wins but it's not really a forecast. I certainly don't do that and I don't think most people here do.

We all have our small biases. I think everyone does.

This isn't a case of being negative just to be negative. I don't think anyone is 100% writing anything off yet but we aren't really super far out at this point and there are plenty of poor signs. Acknowledging them shouldn't be frowned upon.

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
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I try to be honest here I don't really appreciate the allusion of otherwise. If you've lived in DC a few years you understand that forecasting no snow just because often wins but it's not really a forecast. I certainly don't do that and I don't think most people here do.

We all have our small biases. I think everyone does.

This isn't a case of being negative just to be negative. I don't think anyone is 100% writing anything off yet but we aren't really super far out at this point and there are plenty of poor signs. Acknowledging them shouldn't be frowned upon.

 

Yep.

 

And February 2014 was awesome in the District in the middle of the night.  I took my dog for a walk at like 2 AM and it was dumping snow and beautiful.  The next day waiting around while it melted for the crappy CCB sorta ruined it.   I'd take some of the smaller events from the last 2 seasons over that.  

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted

I'll be thrilled if we get 2-4" during the day on Monday even if it pours after.. you know that. We all have our general roles at this point.. they're pretty well known to people who read a lot.

I'm with Matt..we love snow..we'll take a thump and then wash out if that's all we can get.  It's like bargaining. Nobody wants that, but if its a chance to see snow vs seeing no snow, you'll take it.

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