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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
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I'll be thrilled if we get 2-4" during the day on Monday even if it pours after.. you know that. We all have our general roles at this point.. they're pretty well known to people who read a lot.

 

Yes...there are very few of us who are totally distant and neutral when it comes to snow forecasts.,..We all tend to have our biases, even if not overwhelming...

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

bud that was posted a while ago, nothin!!

Sorry I didn't realize how far back that was when I replied. I know I screwed up the thread for a while. My bad. Oh well 0z will start the trend east or put the nail in the coffin or create more confusion. I'm fairly somewhat confident we might have one of those solutions.
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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
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Just last year we had a departing high off midatlantic. This one is likely to be off Maine if even off

What a lot do not relate to is that for Dc it's all about the cold high. Lows are a dime a dozen

 

We have a warmer Atlantic this year. Not sure it would have a huge effect. But I am sure it would have some. And this is a beast of a storm. The winds aloft are pretty vicious as modeled.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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Yes...there are very few of us who are totally distant and neutral when it comes to snow forecasts.,..We all tend to have our biases, even if not overwhelming...

Most of us that are really into the forecast angle are pretty close to eachother in thoughts storm to storm. Wanting to be right factors in as well, think most are pretty well balanced here.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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We don't have a situation with a firmly entrenched high that is finally decaying and moving off. We have a high that is ripping across the country. Not similar to other situations where it hangs on longer than we would think.

Yes. It basically just quickly swings through. We get like 24 hours of big cold 850s with perhaps 6-12 of more extreme stuff (though that's generally backed off), and by Monday it's fairly typical winter cold.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Yes. It basically just quickly swings through. We get like 24 hours of big cold 850s with perhaps 6-12 of more extreme stuff (though that's generally backed off), and by Monday it's fairly typical winter cold.

Underscores the importance of a block. Some like to downplay it, but if we had even modestly higher heights in the NAO domain, the quasi 50-50 low probably would not be headed for Greenland, and the cold high would likely not be so rapidly exiting off the coast.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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Most of us that are really into the forecast angle are pretty close to eachother in thoughts storm to storm. Wanting to be right factors in as well, think most are pretty well balanced here.

I think just about everyone here has conceded that the likelyhood of an all or majority snow out of this is a pretty slim to none chance unless pretty big changes happen. I'm not anticipating anything drastic at the point. Jonjon'ville is looking good for a storm and maybe winchester too.

I think the biggest question is how much if any precip can take advantage of the escaping cold. A lot of mixed signals there. Euro op twins don't like the idea at all but the ens have plenty of solutions with early snowfall. Latest Gfs and ens are very supportive of that idea.

I almost expect the euro twins to bring that idea back shortly but that could just be wishcasting

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Ian

Ian

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Underscores the importance of a block. Some like to downplay it, but if we had even modestly higher heights in the NAO domain, the quasi 50-50 low probably would not be headed for Greenland, and the cold high would likely not be so rapidly exiting off the coast.

Particularly in a strong el nino I think. We saw how the last few threats went despite a fair amount of hope in each. Of course neither was a total shutout but it wasn't all that great for most folks in sum. Can't fully discount that storm is happening near brief -NAO but it's not too strong and very transient.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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Particularly in a strong el nino I think. We saw how the last few threats went despite a fair amount of hope in each. Of course neither was a total shutout but it wasn't all that great for most folks in sum. Can't fully discount that storm is happening near brief -NAO but it's not too strong and very transient.

Yes there is initially a high there, and transient it is. Not sure that even qualifies as a  -NAO. It would take impeccable timing for that to work for us.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I try to avoid posting my irrational weenie posts but hey, why not...

By the time the lead vort gets to the MS valley the cold hp has moved east enough to set up return flow into the lower MS valley. Maybe we get an extended light overrunning event before things go to heck...

Gfs is leaning that way. Dr no says nope

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
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The only place that high could be that would be worse would be Tampa.

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RichmondTarHeel

RichmondTarHeel

Posted
Posted

I was living in Richmond last year when it happened, but there was a storm that was forecasted to be just rain in our area, and a brief snow to heavy rain in places further north and west.  I remember ignoring the forecast because Richmond was all rain.  Then when I went outside I realized it was a sleet/fzr mix and everything was ice.  Then places like Staunton, VA got 18" or so, way over the forecasted 2-3" before a change over to rain (which never happened).  Does anyone remember what I'm talking about?  This storm may be absolutely and completely different, but I'm just curious when that was and what was the setup?

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted

The departed arctic high off the midatlantic last year had a return se flow but it's arctic nature allowed for very low dew points and we got considerable snow before the changeover. I heard all the reasons back then about why it would be all rain and am hearing a different set of reasons why it will be all rain again

DC is generally tough for snow, we all know that or should so I see little value in focusing on why it won't snow. I guess at the end of the day it all really comes down to where does one derive their pleasure from

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted

I was living in Richmond last year when it happened, but there was a storm that was forecasted to be just rain in our area, and a brief snow to heavy rain in places further north and west.  I remember ignoring the forecast because Richmond was all rain.  Then when I went outside I realized it was a sleet/fzr mix and everything was ice.  Then places like Staunton, VA got 18" or so, way over the forecasted 2-3" before a change over to rain (which never happened).  Does anyone remember what I'm talking about?  This storm may be absolutely and completely different, but I'm just curious when that was and what was the setup?

I believe that is what I have been referencing today

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
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We don't have a situation with a firmly entrenched high that is finally decaying and moving off. We have a high that is ripping across the country. Not similar to other situations where it hangs on longer than we would think.

 

That's definitely part of it.  Also, the models moving toward a more intense system doesn't help much.  We'd do pretty darned well with some of the previous solutions that had a weaker one, even with a change-over.  Ah, well!

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

I try to avoid posting my irrational weenie posts but hey, why not...

By the time the lead vort gets to the MS valley the cold hp has moved east enough to set up return flow into the lower MS valley. Maybe we get an extended light overrunning event before things go to heck...

Gfs is leaning that way. Dr no says nope

I'm rooting for the para gfs idea. A more amped frontrunner pulls the development of the second wave far enough east that it comes up east of us. If we're gonna Wishcast why not go for broke???
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

i just found the storm thread for the over performing event last winter and bumped it to the first page. Will be fun to read through it and try to find some similarities.

I'm weenie enough to hold out hope till the last possible second.

This is going to be tougher because it's a more amped system but I'll admit that one looked pretty bleak from this range too.
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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

The departed arctic high off the midatlantic last year had a return se flow but it's arctic nature allowed for very low dew points and we got considerable snow before the changeover. I heard all the reasons back then about why it would be all rain and am hearing a different set of reasons why it will be all rain again

DC is generally tough for snow, we all know that or should so I see little value in focusing on why it won't snow. I guess at the end of the day it all really comes down to where does one derive their pleasure from

 

Who is saying that it will be all rain?  

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted

i just found the storm thread for the over performing event last winter and bumped it to the first page.  Will be fun to read through it and try to find some similarities.

 

I'm weenie enough to hold out hope till the last possible second. 

There wasn't a clipper/frontrunner with that one. The actual storm and heavier precip came in about 12 hours sooner than this one is expected to in relation to the existing cold leaving. With this set up 12 hours sooner means a much different outcome I believe since we have nothing to hold the cold.

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