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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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Idk folks, I look at the 18z JMA and now the 0z NAM and see the High pressure passing off the MA coast instead of the coast of NE and start thinking the evolution of this is changing. I've got this hunch that the big storm gets delayed some from what models have been thinking. Instead, we get some overrunning, lull, then a stronger slp system to hit. If that's the case, what will happen with it? I would think it would likely be a warmer solution, but we'll have to wait until the front end becomes clearer. Could be wrong, but I'm really getting convinced of it. Maybe the rest of the models this cycle slap me in the face with the idea.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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Idk folks, I look at the 18z JMA and now the 0z NAM and see the High pressure passing off the MA coast instead of the coast of NE and start thinking the evolution of this is changing. I've got this hunch that the big storm gets delayed some from what models have been thinking. Instead, we get some overrunning, lull, then a stronger slp system to hit. If that's the case, what will happen with it? I would think it would likely be a warmer solution, but we'll have to wait until the front end becomes clearer. Could be wrong, but I'm really getting convinced of it. Maybe the rest of the models this cycle slap me in the face with the idea.

 

Well, could be, that's an interesting thought.  But the end result would be about the same and a stronger SLP would just end up dumping a lot of water on us anyhow.  (Not belittling what you say here, just that I don't know that if what you say happens will help things for us.)

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HighStakes

HighStakes

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Idk folks, I look at the 18z JMA and now the 0z NAM and see the High pressure passing off the MA coast instead of the coast of NE and start thinking the evolution of this is changing. I've got this hunch that the big storm gets delayed some from what models have been thinking. Instead, we get some overrunning, lull, then a stronger slp system to hit. If that's the case, what will happen with it? I would think it would likely be a warmer solution, but we'll have to wait until the front end becomes clearer. Could be wrong, but I'm really getting convinced of it. Maybe the rest of the models this cycle slap me in the face with the idea.

I just don't see how a longer evolution can work unless somehow miraculously a new high comes into the picture. I think last night's Euro was about as perfect as it can get with this set up. The heaviest snow fell on late Monday and the storm was over by tuesday morning.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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I just don't see how a longer evolution can work unless somehow miraculously a new high comes into the picture. I think last night's Euro was about as perfect as it can get with this set up. The heaviest snow fell on late Monday and the storm was over by tuesday morning.

Well, like I said, if that way I described plays out, the warm idea would be favored. But, at least on the NAM, that's not a bad looking PNA style ridge out west at the end of the run. And since the next round of model runs will have a new version, it's premature to say with any certainty.
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BristowWx

BristowWx

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HUUUGE FWIW, but the 00z NAM actually looks really good. If we had it beyond 84 it would most likely give us some front end love.

Beyond it would show a departing high and an amped system over the mid south that takes inland track. Nothing to hold cold so perfect track needed. Not happening is my thought.

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

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I just don't see how a longer evolution can work unless somehow miraculously a new high comes into the picture. I think last night's Euro was about as perfect as it can get with this set up. The heaviest snow fell on late Monday and the storm was over by tuesday morning.

The NAM shows about 12 hours of light snow before any changeover with a nice 1033 HP taking its time moving out.

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