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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I don't really buy the latest euro solution. Cold air will be harder to dislodge at the surface and the mid levels. And the track of the surface low is a climatological rarity. It won't take that track. Certainly the usual favored areas are favored this time around too, but the ultimate solution should be colder and I expect more precip to be thrown ahead of the main event...

Yes, the track. I won't open up that again, but I def agree.

I'll say now that I don't think the track shown by the euro or gfs at 12z happens. If I'm wrong I'll admit.

BTW, I make no declarations of what the track WILL be, just that it won't be that.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Yes, the track. I won't open up that again, but I def agree.

I'll say now that I don't think the track shown by the euro or gfs at 12z happens. If I'm wrong I'll admit.

BTW, I make no declarations of what the track WILL be, just that it won't be that.

 

At some point you capitulate to the models, but there is enough divergence between them and run to run, and it is still far enough out anyway.  I'd lean toward the ultimate solution being more wintry for DC metro than the Euro is depicting.

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted

Yea, accurately modeling the entire global atmosphere using incomplete mathematical equations and with incomplete input data since we don't have reporting stations over every inch of the Earth with 100 percent accuracy 100 hours into the future is extremely difficult.  In equally shocking news the Earth is round, the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, and this same old rant is getting old.

Sorry to bring reality into your fantasy of speculation
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

well...I said it could happen that way...perhaps I am too absolute about the track, but that is a very uncommon track - it is almost always east or west of us......I don't expect a clean all snow coastal, but I expect something more wintry at least on the front end than the euro depicts...a fresh air mass with a retreating high isn't a bad setup for us to get front end at the very least...I guess I should have made clear I am not expecting some big, clean event.  Just something more wintry than the 12z Euro...I don't think the 12z euro solution is necessarily any more realistic than the 0z last night.  But models tend to underestimate CAD from this range and drive storms up the gut.  We often do well with pretty stale rotting air masses - at least on the front end.  This is fresh cold.  Of course it could be a total screw job.  But it is usually a Nina pattern with the low well west.  Still 100 hours out.  I'm not throwing in the towel yet.

Makes sense. Euro is still generally on the western envelope so it could be too far west. I just think this is a prime setup to screw over a good air mass quick so it shouldn't be too discounted. We need stuff early.

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

I tend to agree that CAD tends to erode out slower than what models show but I've seen this more with weaker systems with overrunning that produces icing and front end snow. The low the models are projecting is a vigorous system and the WAA/Isentropc up glide will likely be strong. A retreating high may not hold in the wedge long enough. We'll see.

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mdsnowlover

mdsnowlover

Posted
Posted

he did say change to rain but implied a lot of snow first. That's not 1-3" then driving rain. He specifically said 6" line up 95 I think and at one point said 10" dc to Bos which I guess he has backed off on but don't misrepresent it as he thinks it's mostly rain.

ETA: I'm sorry I started this. I forgot how much of a lightning rod jb can be. If you want to continue about jb please post in banter and I'll reply there.

give it a rest okay!!!

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure what to think but imo a clean off shore track (like off the coast in NC and up) seems like the lowest probability attm. Otoh- the vort seems to sharpen a bit late for west of the apps or right up the apps.

Taking a total guess based on what I've seen the last couple days buy I think the goal posts for slp are I-81 to VA Beach. Just makes the most sense in my brain unless we get consensus otherwise.

A lot of the eps members do get ok precip in here by 0z tues and generally show that the op was probably a bit late in that dept.

2" isn't outlandish to hope for. That's where my bar is. Then again my bar was 3" for the recent debacle so I might be too optimistic again.

Yeah sounds about right. My current bounds for the low would be about the bay to the blue ridge. Perhaps a bit west but a true apps runner is certainly unusual in winter. I'd definitely agree it would more likely be one side or the other of the main chain for much of the journey.. and west of the apps seems pretty unlikely at this point. Gun to head I'd perhaps go with a track right over us. I'm not really sure what that means for our prospects I still haven't looked all that close at the details. I'm not expecting anything too great IMBY--though Monday has potential I suppose if we can get stuff in early.

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
Posted

One more comment about the 12Z ParaGFS. It actually cools us when the heavy precip moves in between 9Z and 12Z on Tuesday morning. 

 

Yeah taking that run verbatim even DC would probably end up with 4 or more inches that wouldn't be totally washed away.  I'm interested most in that initial overrunning precip on Monday because temps should still be nice and chilly and that would accumulate nicely.   

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
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Can cut through the model crap and tell you how it works for DC

Zwyts alluded to one aspect which I touted last year. Last year after the arctic blast thru that high ended up off the mid Atlantic and I repeatedly stated that such an arctic air mass is a different animal and despite its poor location we would get snow before the change. Most all said noo just rain and then we got 3-5" before changeover

If the high is eastof Maine we get like last year. If it is over or just west of Maine then we do not get a big lake cutter

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

Makes sense. Euro is still generally on the western envelope so it could be too far west. I just think this is a prime setup to screw over a good air mass quick so it shouldn't be too discounted. We need stuff early.

One positive is that it's still only Thursday so plenty of time for timing etc to benefit us. Otoh it's still only Thursday so plenty of time for the precip to delay and cause raging rain showers. Lol

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

Makes sense. Euro is still generally on the western envelope so it could be too far west. I just think this is a prime setup to screw over a good air mass quick so it shouldn't be too discounted. We need stuff early.

It's interesting that the eps mean cocs are still broadly scattered during the event.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Can cut through the model crap and tell you how it works for DC

Zwyts alluded to one aspect which I touted last year. Last year after the arctic blast thru that high ended up off the mid Atlantic and I repeatedly stated that such an arctic air mass is a different animal and despite its poor location we would get snow before the change. Most all said noo just rain and then we got 3-5" before changeover

If the high is eastof Maine we get like last year. If it is over or just west of Maine then we do not get a big lake cutter

Valid point and we do get too stringent on various rules sometimes but that storm (if you're talking about Feb 21) was a lot weaker than what we're seeing forecast at this point. Was mainly a zonal type flow with precip running into the cold. What we see forecast here is way more amplified. If that is right then the end result shouldn't be the same.

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