Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,510
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Toothache
    Newest Member
    Toothache
    Joined

#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Lots of noise within the runs but the axis of snow on the GEFS has shifted steadily NW with each run.  True that the mean at DC has stayed about the same but that could be as we get closer it has upped its significance so the edges get more but the axis of heaviest the last 4 runs shifted from right up 95 18z to up the peidmont 0z, up the blue ridge 6z and now up the spine of the apps 12z. 

Not going to dispute that as I haven't checked, but the last gefs mean was the snowiest at my location in the last 5 runs.  And I don't get upslope, so ................

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Not going to dispute that as I haven't checked, but the last gefs mean was the snowiest at my location in the last 5 runs. And I don't get upslope, so ................

because as the axis shifted west it also increased amounts as its moved away from a sheared out system towards a more amped one. Your on the east side of the heaviest but that's more then being under the heaviest axis was in previous runs. Still far out to worry over slight shifts but the trend is the wrong way.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Swiscaster

Swiscaster

Posted
Posted

This is rather aggressive by LWX (70% chance of snow over 4 days out!):

 

Washington's Birthday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
Monday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
 
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

LOL..........has he got a rationale for the GFS as well?

the gfs is better with track but will adjust with the cold. Same old bs. It will snow and anything that shows otherwise is wrong. His forecast doesn't even make sense with itself as his analogs are all rainers up 95 then he said 6". I said in banter I miss when he was a good read back in the early 2000s before he got all political and off the deep end. I like wxbell for the model access but watch his vids less and less.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted

the gfs is better with track but will adjust with the cold. Same old bs. It will snow and anything that shows otherwise is wrong. His forecast doesn't even make sense with itself as his analogs are all rainers up 95 then he said 6". I said in banter I miss when he was a good read back in the early 2000s before he got all political and off the deep end. I like wxbell for the model access but watch his vids less and less.

No shock that JB is spinning this into a major snowstorm. So all the models are dead wrong in his view? Lol Just mind boggling why people pay for his forecasts anymore. He has become unreadable. I stopped paying for his forecasts back in 2012 when he kept calling for a massive arctic outbreak that February and we all know how that turned out.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

the gfs is better with track but will adjust with the cold. Same old bs. It will snow and anything that shows otherwise is wrong. His forecast doesn't even make sense with itself as his analogs are all rainers up 95 then he said 6". I said in banter I miss when he was a good read back in the early 2000s before he got all political and off the deep end. I like wxbell for the model access but watch his vids less and less.

How are his videos political?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...