#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[stormtracker]

If other guidance moves east a bit, I'd say this run of the GFS is encouraging...maybe it's not done yet.  That stronger kicker low behind it is interesting tho

[mitchnick]

Temp up to 50+ at BWI on Tuesday.

[NinjaWarrior2]

00z GGEM looks like it's going to be a darn good front end thump perhaps?.?. And by Darn good I mean 6"+

[mitchnick]

Gfs actually gives central Maryland almost an inch worth of squalls on Saturday fwiw.

[Bob Chill]

Gfs gives jonjon'ville 30+.

Good run though. To the right side of guidance. I'd dance nude in the driveway for 5" of snow.

[mitchnick]

00z GGEM looks like it's going to be a darn good front end thump perhaps?.?. And by Darn good I mean 6"+

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif

[Heisy]

GGEM came in way SE of its 12z run

[ers-wxman1]

Gfs gives jonjon'ville 30+.

Good run though. To the right side of guidance. I'd dance nude in the driveway for 5" of snow.

I'll hold you to that lol ;-)

[Snowman.]

GGEM gets the precip in earlier.. solid thump.

[mitchnick]

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif

Next 12 hrs ending 96

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

[NinjaWarrior2]

GGEM never warms us above the lower 40s, it's preety darn good.

[ers-wxman1]

Canadian is not quite as strong with the surface low as it approaches our latitude. That is better for us...allows more ridging to hang in

[mitchnick]

Next 12 hrs ending 108

https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

Some of that 50mm, yes 2"+ liquid, is snow

[ers-wxman1]

We might still have a chance.

[Snowman.]

[HighStakes]

Anyone else having trouble with wxbell site.

[ers-wxman1]

GEM is definitely a wsw type of event for nearly everyone along and west of 95. Heavy snow...ice etc.

[Ian]

If other guidance moves east a bit, I'd say this run of the GFS is encouraging...maybe it's not done yet.  That stronger kicker low behind it is interesting tho

Think it being stronger helps keep the low from amplifying as much as it would otherwise. Could be a wrinkle in things.

[Rd9108]

Stop trying to steal my snow you greedy cents.

[kurtstack]

ggem is a near perfect track for this thing - encouraging trend for more frozen precip. still think ideal would be a 998 mb over nags head - but beggers cant be choosers.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mitchnick]

Stop trying to steal my snow you greedy cents.

The moon always looks most romantic when viewed through cirrus clouds.

[weathervswife]

Terrible time for wxbell to crash. 

[kurtstack]

definitely have to pull for that kicker to keep that southern low from amping. This is the one time this winter where having little spacing between shortwaves could work in our favor.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ers-wxman1]

GEM is 2 to 2.5" of liquid.

[stormtracker]

Think it being stronger helps keep the low from amplifying as much as it would otherwise. Could be a wrinkle in things.

That's what I was thinking.  The one time where we want a kicker, lol

[Warm Nose]

We might still have a chance.

If we can get that fork out, maybe.

[mitchnick]

GEM is 2 to 2.5" of liquid.

I'm waiting for TT to update the snow maps.

[Snowman.]

Ukmet at 96 

120 

[Bob Chill]

Think it being stronger helps keep the low from amplifying as much as it would otherwise. Could be a wrinkle in things.

Never really considered the possibility. Could be a head fake. Hmmm

[psuhoffman]

GEM is 2 to 2.5" of liquid.

that could be ugly up here as ggem keeps us below freezing most of the event. Lots of ice