#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[cae]

I'm not a met and I don't have the historical knowledge of many posters here, but if I were a weenie in Ohio I'd be nervous about something like the 06z GFS (or yesterday's 18z GFS) verifying.

 

Every one of the Canadian ensemble members last night had at least some snow for DC.  There's also a lot of freezing rain.  00z GEFS were less snowy with not nearly as many members showing freezing rain.

 

[NorthArlington101]

NAM is a great run, but it is the NAM.

 

This is pretty much all front-end thump, looks like a shift to fairly heavy rain afterwards. 

[Ji]

please God let the Nam be right for once

[BTRWx]

Epic Nam run!

[MacintoshPro]

12z trend...

[RichmondTarHeel]

The NAM has always been my favorite.  Looks like it keeps the rain to the east of DC, but does bring ice into the mix.

[snowfan]

NAMd. Surface temps never get above freezing cities and west. Total precip by 0Z Tue is closing in on an inch.

[Bob Chill]

please God let the Nam be right for once

 

Para euro was halfway there last night. We have a chance at a decent event on the front. Hopefully things will be relatively locked in with non-nam good guidance tomorrow. 

[osfan24]

If you juiced up the NAM a little bit, doesn't it look an awful lot like Feb 2014?

[Warm Nose]

Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense.

[Bob Chill]

6z para gfs not enthusiastic on the front end but would be a couple inches before the flip. Track is still west though. 

[Ji]

Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense.

what trended eastward? The 6z  GFS was awfully west. the nam at  72-84 isnt usually a trend. Its usually wrong lol

[Ji]

6z para gfs not enthusiastic on the front end but would be a couple inches before the flip. Track is still west though. 

how is a couple of inches not enthusiastic...sounds better than 6z OP though

[Bob Chill]

how is a couple of inches not enthusiastic...sounds better than 6z OP though

 

I was comparing to NAM and para euro. 

 

NAM is trippin though

[wxdude64]

Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense.

Still like to see that H over Boston at least instead of off the Jersey coast.

[stormtracker]

please God let the Nam be right for once

You and I both know that it's not going to be right.  It'll just serve to give us false hope and toward the end, we'll wonder (again) why we ever trusted the NAM.

 

Although....isn't it supposed to be good with CAD

[Ji]

You and I both know that it's not going to be right.  It'll just serve to give us false hope and toward the end, we'll wonder (again) why we ever trusted the NAM.

 

Although....isn't it supposed to be good with CAD

if we are going to see changes...its going to be today. By tomorrow, things are probably going to be locked in. its dark and damp here in the valley bro

[Ji]

i think the strength of the storm is making a big difference. If you look at the 00z GGEM and the 12z NAM, low pressure is really week when its snowing over us. GFS and Euro were like at 1000mb..Nam/GGEM at 1008mb or so

[BristowWx]

Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense.

respectfully disagree.  the west shift made sense based on how the models were interpreting the data.  GFS still seeing west solution.  not sold it won't be straight up I95 track...but I do agree the CAD is always erased too quickly so maybe longer frozen

[WinterWxLuvr]

My, my, my how short the memory of some is.

 

The NAM did a damn fine job with the blizzard.  Intentional negativity isn't the same as objectivity.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Looks like things are trending eastward ... headed in the right direction. Yesterday's western shift just didn't make much sense.

Not much of anything made sense on those runs.

[Ji]

My, my, my how short the memory of some is.

 

The NAM did a damn fine job with the blizzard.  Intentional negativity isn't the same as objectivity.

every model did a good job on the blizzard. It was like throwing a softball to a steroid barry bonds

[Bob Chill]

The one thing that is worth notice on the NAM is it brings sig precip in earlier than the globals. Is it on to something? I sure damn hope so but have zero confidence until the globals trend that way. 

[airmarci]

<Insert post about the NAM outside of 48 hours>

[stormtracker]

if we are going to see changes...its going to be today. By tomorrow, things are probably going to be locked in. its dark and damp here in the valley bro

I actually agree.  If we don't start seeing some wholesale movement today by 0z, we're done most likely.

[Ji]

<Insert post about the NAM outside of 48 hours> 6

fixed

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

The one thing that is worth notice on the NAM is it brings sig precip in earlier than the globals. Is it on to something? I sure damn hope so but have zero confidence until the globals trend that way. 

 

Noticed that too.  In fact, earlier runs of the globals brought the precip in earlier, too as I recall, at least the ones that looked good for the front end.  Then they backed away from that, unfortunately.

 

The NAM may be on to something...or simply "on" something (my guess is the latter!)...but we'll see.

[stormtracker]

My, my, my how short the memory of some is.

 

The NAM did a damn fine job with the blizzard.  Intentional negativity isn't the same as objectivity.

The NAM is not a good model.  Even the folks who programmed models will tell you this.   There's a difference between intentional negativity and being realistic.  

[Warm Nose]

<Insert post about the NAM outside of 48 hours wheelhouse>

Fixed again. 

[wxdude64]

fixed

yep