mob1 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thingGive me an exact repeat of January and you can gloat about your "good forecast" all summer. Sincerely, someone who believes you have a say in the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing Do you really believe this ? You said No pattern change an no snow KNYC is + 1.6 AN for the month . There was 1 day of + 18 and another +15 . Those are positives for the month KNYC received 27 inches of snow in JAN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing 2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . So does the GEFS What is sustained 3 weeks ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing Extreme luck ? We didn't thread the needle. The teleconnectors were in place for a major snowstorm and it occurred. You posted that the jet was too progressive for any snowfall in January and said we most likely will have to wait until February for snow. Now with the long range looking favorable again for a sustained +PNA/-EPO you're calling it a transient change. The weeklies disagree with your warmup as well going into week 4. It's a beautiful wonderful thing that your snowfall forecast for Jan busted hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . So does the GEFS What is sustained 3 weeks ? From the looks of those maps it would not surprise me if we get another major to historic snow event sometime in February. I wonder what his excuse will be then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Apples and oranges guys. All of you have a lot of skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The snow is already down to piles in Long Beach. That's just crazy. For the amount of snow that fell, that has to be a record for how fast it melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 From the looks of those maps it would not surprise me if we get another major to historic snow event sometime in February. I wonder what his excuse will be then. It's going to be very difficult to get another major event if the AO stays positive but small to moderate events are on the table.However a strong STJ will add more juice to any system so I could see a MECS if things align perfectly even in a neutral/positive AO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Day length reached 10 hours today. The snow is already down to piles in Long Beach. That's just crazy. For the amount of snow that fell, that has to be a record for how fast it melted. Yeah, I've never seen such a substantial amount of snow melt so quickly. Nearly 20" to mainly piles in less than a week. I'm glad, I hate snowpacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The snow is already down to piles in Long Beach. That's just crazy. For the amount of snow that fell, that has to be a record for how fast it melted. Really!!!??? Not in wantagh at all. I still have wall to wall snow cover and a good amount!! By the way I found a 1" sleet layer so the south shore did change over for a bit. Still wound up with a solid 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Wall to wall snow coverage in Queens as well. No bare spots anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 It's going to be very difficult to get another major event if the AO stays positive but small to moderate events are on the table. However a strong STJ will add more juice to any system so I could see a MECS if things align perfectly even in a neutral/positive AO regime. I want a Becs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I want a Becs.Just had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Almost bare ground here in brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 My forecast has done very well. We are above normal in temps and there was an extreme luck storm that threaded the needle with perfect timing. January will be above normal in temps. As for February, more of the same, above normal month, there will be a transient cold shot week 2 followed by a big warmup again. Think roller coaster, no sustained arctic outbreaks. Also, minus another luck storm, snowfall will be below normal for February. El Ninos make winters so easy to forecast. It's a beautiful, wonderful thing Well as you say godspeed . Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 40m40 minutes ago The EPS today is full on winter part 2. Enjoy the warmup. #rockinFeb Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 31m31 minutes ago @antmasiello Impressive look for sure Severe Weather Blog @blizzardof96 28m28 minutes ago @RaleighWx @antmasiello Extremely impressive. Anticyclonic wavebreaking into AK raising heights across the pole. Then PNA pops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 With little sun I haven't lost much snowpack today. Still around the 6" mark on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I want a Becs. I'd love to hear what you'd consider a BECS for our region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'd love to hear what you'd consider a BECS for our region? I can't speak for snow but personally I'd go with sonething along the lines of the Blizzard of 1888. Widespread 40-50 inches in the HV and three feet in the city. That's a BECS IMO. And please don't bring up the asinine 21 inch total in KNYC. That was the classic worst measurement of all time. Even the neanderthal zookeeper couldn't have F'd up that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I can't speak for snow but personally I'd go with sonething along the lines of the Blizzard of 1888. Widespread 40-50 inches in the HV and three feet in the city. That's a BECS IMO. And please don't bring up the asinine 21 inch total in KNYC. That was the classic worst measurement of all time. Even the neanderthal zookeeper couldn't have F'd up that bad. some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low... 1888 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/ 1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Definitely tons of snow still left here. I think allot of It is the colder nights that allow for a referee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low... 1888 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/ 1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf Amazing input as always uncle. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I can't speak for snow but personally I'd go with sonething along the lines of the Blizzard of 1888. Widespread 40-50 inches in the HV and three feet in the city. That's a BECS IMO. And please don't bring up the asinine 21 inch total in KNYC. That was the classic worst measurement of all time. Even the neanderthal zookeeper couldn't have F'd up that bad. An event like that seems fairly unlikely. Better chance of back to back events like the midatlantic in 2010. Something like that could give many a 3 foot or greater snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I'd love to hear what you'd consider a BECS for our region? Bacon Egg and Cheese Sandwich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Bacon Egg and Cheese Sandwich If you put ketchup on it im banning you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 If you put ketchup on it im banning youLol This! Ketchup isn't the worst thing in the world as you seem to think. But it does not belong anywhere near an egg sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Am i the only poster here that dreams small storms and above average temps? The next 6 weeks will be the hardest for winter haters like my self. Winters death march till the end of March.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . So does the GEFS What is sustained 3 weeks ? 2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . So does the GEFS What is sustained 3 weeks ? 2 weeks is transient ? The EPS show it . So does the GEFS What is sustained 3 weeks ? Well, I guess in terms of spring being not far off by that time, then yeah, 2 weeks would be transient, but then, so are the seasons....2 weeks of cold will not feel all that transient in fact, if that were to verify, most people would consider that quite sustained... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Wow 2 weeks of cold in winter seems transient to me...going to enjoy this upcoming warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low... 1888 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/ 1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low... 1888 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/ 1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf some stories about the blizzard...I think it was under measured also...Some of the pictures show much more snow than any other storm on record...2.10" of precip is also low... 1888 from the NY Tribune... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ from the NY Sun... http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-3/ 1888 from the Brooklyn Eagle... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf Back in my ad agency days I worked with a dude whose great grandfather went out in that storm and was never seen again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Lol This! Ketchup isn't the worst thing in the world as you seem to think. But it does not belong anywhere near an egg sandwich. It goes on burgers and fries and nothing else ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.