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  1. Agree -EPO HP confluence has been under modeled each of the last 3 years Whatever is left of that SE ridge will only help in bringing LP to the Mason Dixon line. Day 8 - 15 on the GEFS entering phase 8 is brutal
  2. Why / how ? Can you please be specific as to the mechanism that is going to cause that. Don't say the SE ridge / that idea is dead
  3. This is 1 to 2 in CNJ out on to ELI and maybe up to 4 down in the Tom's River south to AC type.
  4. Just look at today's day 8 GEFS at 500 vs it's old day 10. Thats in only 2 days , wow
  5. Agreed , -EPO H/P confluence through the lakes is always under modeled If you guys are betting on a warm SE ridge you're going to lose I only show up here before events , Merry Christmas week
  6. 2 M temps are BN everyday on the EPS on North day 10 thru 15. There is a lot of HP in the pattern and plenty that will nose in. We have a 3 day issue 18th - 21st where LP is cutting through W Canada so that will be a reset. The MJO goes into 8 around the 21st time frame , so later in the period look for that weak SE ridge to get weaker
  7. Be careful with the SE ridge calls it's likely wrong The MJO heads into phase 8 by the 21st and you have a -4 SD EPO That feature may end up a lot weaker than forecast. The 12z GEFS already adjusted away from yesterday's run.
  8. Nice MJO forecast this morning by the GFS It's ensembles drop the EPO off a cliff. More of a reason to know that the brief relaxation day 7 8 9 is just that. Then on to Christmas week , fingers crossed
  9. I believe it leans the trough back into the midwest and west. but I haven't seen the whole hemisphere
  10. Thats why when looking at all that cold water in the EPAC and the warmer water S of the Aleutians I am hesitant of all the warm Jan calls. Just as I was for November and then December. But I will wait to see what the I/O convection looks like in late December
  11. I love the EPO and MJO for that entire week The PNA will respond and I like the Arctic wave up the coast better
  12. No one should care. The EPO goes nuts after the 17th and the warm up is 2 days
  13. There's definitely a cutter and the warm up is 2 or 3 days Only plus a couple but the snow cover E of 95 will be gone before Christmas and then we will need the Control run to save us.