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  1. You could snow by the end of next weekend / and if you don't it's November It's early and a lot colder than you thought it would be December could turn out to be a VG month 85 05 10
  2. We pinned a BN November and now December should be BN as well. With high lattitude blocking we think we will put snow points on the board
  3. He and I disagreed and your argument was that the flow was zonal and 4 days ago you said the LR would moderate The last 11 days in NYC were minus 6.8 which can never denote zonal . The blocking being further N as its an extention of higher heights coming out of the Kara sea . Now like I have been saying the 6 to 10 is cold and the 10 to 15 is BN when the heights connect over the pole and you possibly change the source region Do you see the LR now ?
  4. It looks to me that the LR GEFS does introduce cross polar flow. Check out the surface maps , HP hooks over the top and all the way through the UMW and lakes. I know many don't care about the cold but aligning these anomalies sometimes lead to very good events. Yes , cold and dry is always possible but it beats a torch where snow isn't an option
  5. Take a look at the weeklies ending the Dec 4th. The EPS busts that so bad accross the CONUS ,check out the 10 thru 15 5 day mean anomalies against those weeklies. Big bust If thats right The cold is here and just looking at that pole ward spike from Alaska over the top in the LR , you are going to end up with a continued -EPO and a big PNA spike The reason I like day 10 to 15 to get cold is that look portends a source region switch. That would be a massive bust. too bad the control is just an op run / but I think it's possible.
  6. The EPS day 10 to 15 is just brrrrr
  7. it's an extention out of the Kara sea
  8. I will tell you where the problem is , the block is a little far N. So as these features rotate around and attempt to push the trough in , it rotates out 2 days later But it's not PAC related The timing is off in regards to snow.
  9. Chris I misspoke the GFS being slower in the S branch is the forecast difference and not the N branch. The GFS precip holds off until both dive the trough in.
  10. And it's exactly why is so hard to argue zonal and warm in the L/R the models keep having to adjust in that region. Just 5 days ago ,many yelled AN in the 10 to 15 , now look.at that new 5 to 10. It's BN after that too , will do some work on that later But , the error bias in the EP region wanting to bring that Positive is amazing , just look at its correction over and over again. BTW another Euro GFS war is brewing for Wednesday , the Euro has 60 and heavy rain along the coast as it late diving the trough in , the GFS snows all the way to the coastal plain. 6 days out and they are worlds apart.
  11. What PAC flow are you talking about ? The Euro connects a ridge extending from the Kara sea to the Baja. There's a vortex in W Canada but that coming South . You have an incredible block with a - 4 SD AO. In the last 10 days KNYC is - 6.8 this not representative of PAC flow. The problem is the speed of the 2 branches and finding a SW that is in a bad data spot over the pole , ( or doesnt exist ) nothing more . If the timing is off nothing happens Days 5 thru 13 are BN on the EPS and thats not PAC flow either
  12. I wonder who the forecaster was that called for 2 inches. I am guessing the next day was an unpleasant one in his bosses office
  13. I think the EPS is close to something big day 8 / 9
  14. I agree , I just see the "possibility " and thats what I have posted on. That was close Chris , but theres a lot of time