BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lookout's mystery model is even further south on it's 18z run than it was for the 12z cycle. And it already has precip falling at hour 60. Looks like snow or some sort of mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lookout's mystery model is even further south on it's 18z run than it was for the 12z cycle. I really think FRAM needs to stick. That's the perfect name. As for what it's depicting, I mean a closed off low on the TX/LA border isn't the most believable thing ever but it sure does look nice for the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lookout's mystery model is even further south on it's 18z run than it was for the 12z cycle. How accurate is this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 And it already has precip falling at hour 60. Looks like snow or some sort of mix. BTW, you're in Catawba county now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 BTW, you're in Catawba county now? Yeah man, just up the road from Blackburn Elementary. About 5 miles down the road from Mountain View. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Could coastal NC from ( ILM ) to coastal VA ( ORF ) be looking at high winds and rain event? Coastal flooding or anything like that a major concern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 551 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 VALID 00Z WED JAN 20 2016 - 00Z SAT JAN 23 2016 ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TN/SOUTHERN OH VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... A RATHER MOIST AND DYNAMIC SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING INTO THE PAC NW/NRN CA ON TUES WILL REACH THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS LATE WED INTO THURS MORNING. THE DIGGING UPPER DYNAMICS REACHING THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF PHASING... AS A MID TO UPPER CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER KS WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM KS INTO NE. EXPECT A BURST OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NE. THEN ON THURS... UPPER STREAMS WILL TRULY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LEAD TO A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM. THE MID TO UPPER LOW AND VORTICITY WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD AR/NRN MS TO ESTABLISH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD... WITH INTERACTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND OVERRUNING OF MOISTURE INTO MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS. THE RESULTANT WILL BE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY SNOW AND LENGTHY TRANSITION ZONE FROM SRN MO/NRN AR UP THE OH RIVER INTO KY/WV AND INTO THE APPALACHIAN SPINE WHILE SPILLING OVER EAST OF THE MTNS INTO SWRN VA/WEST CENTRAL NC. MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS VERY GOOD IN THE BIG PICTURE THROUGH DAY 3 AND THERE WAS LITTLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE HI RES GFS AND ECMWF MASS FIELDS. HOW THE INTERNALS OF THE MODEL DEALS WITH SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES MAY STILL LEAD TO SUBTLE POSITIONAL OR TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD YIELD SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lookout's mystery model is even further south on it's 18z run than it was for the 12z cycle Miller A ish look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sounds like NWS Prediction Center in Maryland thinks the Southern Apps. West central NC is looking at Heavy Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Top 5 CIPS analogs include: Blizzard of '96 January 2002 Christmas/Boxing Day Storm of 2010 March 1980 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F096&rundt=2016011912&sort=500HGHT Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How accurate is this model? Good question... I have no idea. Lookout mentioned it did well with the last event, and that's all I know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS is the furthest north but still increases the totals here each run. Even it had 6 to 12 inches for the Triangle now. Not quite 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Latest WPC outputs seem to think equal chance of 1" snow and >.1" frza for raleigh. Even that would be a high impact for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Top 5 CIPS analogs include: Blizzard of '96 January 2002 Christmas/Boxing Day Storm of 2010 March 1980 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F096&rundt=2016011912&sort=500HGHT Wow. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah man, just up the road from Blackburn Elementary. About 5 miles down the road from Mountain View. Nice man, don't have to worry about the CLT screw zone now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk That 96 storm still stands as my favorite. Even over the bigger snows (like 2000 2 footer). That was 6" of sleet for Wake Forest. Roads were a mess for many days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVA_SN Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not quite 6-12"prec.png What site can I find these graphs on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That 96 storm still stands as my favorite. Even over the bigger snows (like 2000 2 footer). That was 6" of sleet for Wake Forest. Roads were a mess for many days after that. Seems like a odd mix there, 96 was a non event here but the others listed are all decent to great snowstorms IMBY, currently the models are not hinting at anything close to 1980, and even 2010, 2002 seem like the models have to trend a fair bit further south to get snow totals like that in NC, especially MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So according to previous posts the models should be infused with good data tonight as the storm system has arrived correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So according to previous posts the models should be infused with good data tonight as the storm system has arrived correct? Yes, hopefully we see the models come to agreement over this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So according to previous posts the models should be infused with good data tonight as the storm system has arrived correct? It should get sampled much better now that it's onshore. This is what me and you were talking about last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So according to previous posts the models should be infused with good data tonight as the storm system has arrived correct? I think so, yeah. Shortwave that will lead to our Friday storm arrived to CONUS today, so hopefully we get more data of the wave from upper-air soundings via weather balloons. However, I think it's worth posting someone's quote from the Mountains thread: I think this is less of an issue that it used to be. Satellite ingest is rather good now as satellite data has been upgraded over the years. That being said, Euro is still superior at satellite ingest than others. I'd say the model solution won't change much even after it has been sampled by the RAOB network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 BTW, Robert has a post about the Euro on his site. He's on board w/ it at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So according to previous posts the models should be infused with good data tonight as the storm system has arrived correct? From what I read yes that should be the case but the most telling models will be tomorrows runs. And that's when we can all start trying to pinpoint where and what this storm is going to do. But don't get me wrong tonight's runs are very Important! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 doing a facebook live video here soon....come on by and say hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What site can I find these graphs on? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KRDU&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So according to previous posts the models should be infused with good data tonight as the storm system has arrived correct? Seriously, this has been answered almost 10+ times in the past 24 hours. But yes, yes, yes, yes. It's essentially being sampled overnight tonight, should be in 12z runs tomorrow at latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Has anyone else noticed how unimpressive the SREF plumes look? Of their 26 members, only 2 show >2" snow for Raleigh and Charlotte, and only 4 show >2" snow for Greensboro. Here's RDU: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 BTW, Robert has a post about the Euro on his site. He's on board w/ it at the moment. Please, who is Robert and what's his site? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seriously, this has been answered almost 10+ times in the past 24 hours. But yes, yes, yes, yes. It's essentially being sampled overnight tonight, should be in 12z runs tomorrow at latest.I'm sure you stated a few of those Here is the -12 WV loop Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.