SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From the Keeping it Real Department of the Former I85/U.S 74 Weather Weenie Association, this caution: The 18z GFS doesn't actually show a winter event for the Charlotte/Shelby/GSP corridor. Per soundings, it never gets below 34.8 in any of those spots. Heck, Hickory only gets to -.1C (31.8F) for just 3 hours before going above freezing the rest of the way, save for an inch or 2 of backside powder at the end. My point is not to be a Debbie Downer, but rather to suggest that the GFS, while trending the right way, could still be right. I-40 will I'm sure be fine, but for the I-85/US 74 crowd, anything is still possible from the Euro's cataclysm to the GFS's long, wet, soaking snoozer. EDIT: And yes, I'm aware the models struggle with CAD. That's always been my fear here. GFS really shows nothing for clt. Euro hasn't shown much until today. I can't forget that until I see the GFS fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hm, most members of the 18z GEFS have some kind of backend Winter weather in the Midlands of SC. Not surprised. As strong as I think this storm may wrap up, totally not surprised. The torch December still has the Gulf Stream waters quite toasty and with such a thermal gradient, it's possible that wr may see a very rapid occlusion of the storm and substantial wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z #GFS Ensemble okay to post here? https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZHmQtqVAAE6JQn.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not surprised. As strong as I think this storm may wrap up, totally not surprised. The torch December still has the Gulf Stream waters quite toasty and with such a thermal gradient, it's possible that wr may see a very rapid occlusion of the storm and substantial wraparound. It's mainly light members.. but it looks a bit Euro EPS'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From the Keeping it Real Department of the Former I85/U.S 74 Weather Weenie Association, this caution: The 18z GFS doesn't actually show a winter event for the Charlotte/Shelby/GSP corridor. Per soundings, it never gets below 34.8 in any of those spots. Heck, Hickory only gets to -.1C (31.8F) for just 3 hours before going above freezing the rest of the way, save for an inch or 2 of backside powder at the end. My point is not to be a Debbie Downer, but rather to suggest that the GFS, while trending the right way, could still be right. I-40 will I'm sure be fine, but for the I-85/US 74 crowd, anything is still possible from the Euro's cataclysm to the GFS's long, wet, soaking snoozer. EDIT: And yes, I'm aware the models struggle with CAD. Spoken like a true 74/85 trooper. Been down this road many times over the years skip. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From the Keeping it Real Department of the Former I85/U.S 74 Weather Weenie Association, this caution: The 18z GFS doesn't actually show a winter event for the Charlotte/Shelby/GSP corridor. Per soundings, it never gets below 34.8 in any of those spots. Heck, Hickory only gets to -.1C (31.8F) for just 3 hours before going above freezing the rest of the way, save for an inch or 2 of backside powder at the end. My point is not to be a Debbie Downer, but rather to suggest that the GFS, while trending the right way, could still be right. I-40 will I'm sure be fine, but for the I-85/US 74 crowd, anything is still possible from the Euro's cataclysm to the GFS's long, wet, soaking snoozer. EDIT: And yes, I'm aware the models struggle with CAD. GFS has been busting by about 5-8 degrees too high for lows and highs, for the last few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are we seeing things trend away from RDU? More rain/mix than snow? Seems like that's where the discussion and models are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From the Keeping it Real Department of the Former I85/U.S 74 Weather Weenie Association, this caution: The 18z GFS doesn't actually show a winter event for the Charlotte/Shelby/GSP corridor. Per soundings, it never gets below 34.8 in any of those spots. Heck, Hickory only gets to -.1C (31.8F) for just 3 hours before going above freezing the rest of the way, save for an inch or 2 of backside powder at the end. My point is not to be a Debbie Downer, but rather to suggest that the GFS, while trending the right way, could still be right. I-40 will I'm sure be fine, but for the I-85/US 74 crowd, anything is still possible from the Euro's cataclysm to the GFS's long, wet, soaking snoozer. EDIT: And yes, I'm aware the models struggle with CAD. This x1000. The other concern is one that burger has mentioned more than once - that the Euro is too QPF happy. Does that seem to be the case here? Perhaps the even more important question is what causes the difference between the GFS scenario and the Euro scenario? And finally, what's to stop the dreaded north west trend as we get into tomorrow's model runs? These are all rhetorical, unless somebody thinks they have the answers and would like to share with the class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are we seeing things trend away from RDU? More rain/mix than snow? Seems like that's where the discussion and models are going. I would refer back to pages with the 12z runs today for a better handle on RDU's sit-rep and toss the off hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are we seeing things trend away from RDU? More rain/mix than snow? Seems like that's where the discussion and models are going. No. They are discussing verbatim model runs. Impossible to know exactly where the p-type boundaries set up right now. Things are fine. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This x1000. The other concern is one that burger has mentioned more than once - that the Euro is too QPF happy. Does that seem to be the case here? Perhaps the even more important question is what causes the difference between the GFS scenario and the Euro scenario? And finally, what's to stop the dreaded north west trend as we get into tomorrow's model runs? These are all rhetorical, unless somebody thinks they have the answers and would like to share with the class. Literally every other model, including the NAM, thinks the GFS is out to lunch predicting what it is. Literally every single one of them. Not all of them are crush jobs like the Euro but the GFS is way, way, way, way, way, way out to lunch. The OP is even arguing with its own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are we seeing things trend away from RDU? More rain/mix than snow? Seems like that's where the discussion and models are going. Yeah it feels like everyone(most) was hyped now(Some) just going down hill so depressing.. But I still feel Hickory and west can get some good totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 This x1000. The other concern is one that burger has mentioned more than once - that the Euro is too QPF happy. Does that seem to be the case here? Perhaps the even more important question is what causes the difference between the GFS scenario and the Euro scenario? And finally, what's to stop the dreaded north west trend as we get into tomorrow's model runs? These are all rhetorical, unless somebody thinks they have the answers and would like to share with the class. They're not rhetorical - more "I don't like what one model shows" in a lot of cases so let's not talk about it. The obvious elephant in the room is the fact that this probably isn't going to dig enough to be more than rain or some freezing rain below NC (slight chance of backend snow but even that is questionable for our area). And the NW trend is always a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is the furthest north but still increases the totals here each run. Even it had 6 to 12 inches for the Triangle now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS has been busting by about 5-8 degrees too high for lows and highs, for the last few months Plus it almost ALWAYS underestimaes the strength of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro: Crushing winter event on the level of the blizzard of 96. Agrees with its ensembles.NAVGEM: Very nice event. Not on the level of 96 but a very nice event with significant snow after the transfer. Canadian: Significant Snow/Sleet/Ice event depending on where you are but the biggest winter storm since 2014. NAM: Significant ice storm for 85 with more sleet focused in the I-40 corridor. GFS: Finger up its nose like Ralph Wiggum. It literally told me that its cats breath smells like cat food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's mainly light members.. but it looks a bit Euro EPS'ish. I wouldn't normally expect huge amounts from wraparound but it's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS is the furthest north but still increases the totals here each run. Even it had 6 to 12 inches for the Triangle now. I don't think it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wouldn't normally expect huge amounts from wraparound but it's something. me either, but this sucker has some good energy with it and starting to get very potent as it heads your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 See this, Wake4est: http://i68.tinypic.com/2uidhdj.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I wouldn't normally expect huge any amounts from wraparound at CAE but it's something. fyp I don't see how we even get any wraparound here with winds out of the nw. Anything is possible though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 See this, Wake4est: http://i68.tinypic.com/2uidhdj.gif This is from TwisterData it show maybe 3-6" with the 6" for the far north areas http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=01&model_dd=19&model_init_hh=18&fhour=96¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not surprised. As strong as I think this storm may wrap up, totally not surprised. The torch December still has the Gulf Stream waters quite toasty and with such a thermal gradient, it's possible that wr may see a very rapid occlusion of the storm and substantial wraparound. Yea, I have noticed this aspect as well on the models as the storm rides the coastline. I am concerned about the coastal front eroding the cold layer east of say... Chapel Hill, changing over to rain for several hours in Raleigh. It's one reason I am considering chasing this one back home if the euro holds serve through the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Had a chance to look at H5 and 850 maps from the 12z runs, finally. It does look like there has been some relaxation in the extreme upper level wrap up we were seeing a couple days ago. I remember an EC run or two taking the H5 low to sub 528dm off the VA Capes. Both the GFS and Euro are pretty consistent now in the 534 range. The 850 also looks a little strung out once it clears the NC coast, oriented SW to NE with a couple centers in there. The axis clearly turns neg around or just east of the MS, but it is not as hard of a right as we have seen with other upper level lows. The energy rounding the base around 72hrs gets somewhat shunted out in to the Atlantic, which prevents this from deepening further and occluding off the MA or NE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Skip's words of caution are definitely correct. Even with the improved trends of today, most areas east of the mountains should be prepared for a slop storm. Remember those pretty snow maps from last year that all predicted over a foot. I got less than half and a ton of sleet/fzrn instead. If you look at some of the Bufkit exctraction data, even areas like GSO don't actually do very well on the NAM/GFS. 18z runs both have Greensboro with a total of a half inch of snow and a ton of sleet and freezing rain. It's probably going to be a big wintery mess, but it could also trend to an event with less impact. Here is the Cobb Data table link: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kgso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Little video update from Brad P. : https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1010092109063245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lookout's mystery model is even further south on it's 18z run than it was for the 12z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Skip's words of caution are definitely correct. Even with the improved trends of today, most areas east of the mountains should be prepared for a slop storm. Remember those pretty snow maps from last year that all predicted over a foot. I got less than half and a ton of sleet/fzrn instead. If you look at some of the Bufkit exctraction data, even areas like GSO don't actually do very well on the NAM/GFS. 18z runs both have Greensboro with a total of a half inch of snow and a ton of sleet and freezing rain. It's probably going to be a big wintery mess, but it could also trend to an event with less impact. Here is the Cobb Data table link: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kgso The best way to judge what makes it to the surface is using the actual bufkit program and going through the skew-t loops... Those are pretty much worthless at this stage however, until we get an accurate assessment of the sfc/850/700/500mb low tracks... I can tell youthough, this track will not produce all snow anywhere in NC except far NW NC (mountains, far northwestern foothills). Even jan 96 changed to sleet for several hours outside of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lookout's mystery model is even further south on it's 18z run than it was for the 12z cycle. That is a good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The best way to judge what makes it to the surface is using the actual bufkit program and going through the skew-t loops... Those are pretty much worthless at this stage however, until we get an accurate assessment of the sfc/850/700/500mb low tracks... I can tell youthough, this track will not produce all snow anywhere in NC except far NW NC (mountains, far northwestern foothills). Even jan 96 changed to sleet for several hours outside of those areas. Exactly. Euro would be snow/sleet/freezing rain/snow. In fact, most of the snow in Charlotte falls on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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