deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 this run is still north of the euro and others but even so it manages to get some freezing rain down to lake lanier/just north of gainesville with a decent amount of backside snow. in fact, north ga mountains do fairly well with upwards of 6 inches. This being the long range nam, it's almost useless though. VERY much agree...I would think the NAM will trend colder, GFS is lost with that...maybe better tonight? I think the NAM could be a bit to far north...but either way....long range nam is most def useless...I Think this is def. a step toward the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm on the phone waiting to ask them about NC. lol Nice! Not a mention yet about us and it's 40 minutes in. Then again, we don't have a local met on, so it's understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upper levels look awesome. Who cares what it say's at the sfc this far out. It's pretty much worthless in that respect past 48 hrs. Yes. Forget the sfc .. that ULL is coming way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I would say signs are increasing we see a nasty icing threat from NE GA, through upstate and most of NC. (Wild card is NC with obvious elevation and models) Either way, I still think the GFS should come south a bit tonight..we shall see...For the record, I Think the NAM is a bit too warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes. Forget the sfc .. that ULL is coming way down. yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 KFQD 850's at the height of the system (HR 72) on the 00 Nam is at 2.6 where .57" comes down in 6 hours. 850 drops to -2.2 for the next 6 hour time period with .08" Very sharp drop. At the time period for the 12Z today the 850 level was 3.0. However, the 950 level remains below -0.0 for the entire storm time frame . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NWS First Call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes. Forget the sfc .. that ULL is coming way down. So the ULL is coming se through Asheville and then into SC headed towards the coast on the 21z NAM? I want to see where the 0z GFS takes it as the 18z was along I40 I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NWS First Call Thats a head scratcher. So far off current model guidance one can only think they are leaning heavily on mixing consuming a good bit of the precip. Not what any of us want to see. Need the king to stake his claim tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Doesn't look like they're going with the EURO huh? Geez. this through Friday early morning, I believe. Check out the timestamp lower right handcorner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NWS First Call Doesn't include Friday night and Saturday either. Pretty good totals for just Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 fwiw, the rgem is much colder across north carolina and virginia than the nam is at the surface at 48 hours. So much so it looks suspect to me so could be biases at work But figured it was worth noting...it's colder at 850mb too. also..check out aloft. nam 48 hours first, rgem 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM looped forward past 84 hours is actually more south of the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 this through Friday early morning, I believe. Check out the timestamp lower right handcorner? Lol yeah, that's only through early Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Local met Van Denton with Fox 8 in High Point...oh boy!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Local met Van Denton with Fox 8 in High Point...oh boy!!!! What is a "freezing rain model"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 fwiw, the rgem is much colder across north carolina and virginia than the nam is at the surface at 48 hours. So much so it looks suspect to me so could be biases at work But figured it was worth noting...it's colder at 850mb too. also..check out aloft. nam 48 hours first, rgem 2nd Interesting..yes, NAM looks wacked for thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What is a "freezing rain model"?Lol! That's a new one on me but I would hope that is just their in house model with a creative graphic tag.........I hope!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What is a "freezing rain model"? I guess it's just an in-house created model...never seen one either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Local met Van Denton with Fox 8 in High Point...oh boy!!!! Looks way too far north IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GFS is digging as well through 36. Trough orientation is west southwest. That didn't change the surface on the nam though so who knows. 5h is nice looking I guess that's all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 42 has a closed low more north than nams depiction, showing it moreso over OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 looks similar at 51, maybe a little s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 5h ULL a bit stronger and SW at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think 57 may be north It's not north... more than anything, just a bit slower so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 72 slp ovr or near chas it looks like, s than 18z for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 its south and colder and slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Differences are showing up at hr 72... NW NC (Frostyland) is getting clocked. It's slower than past GFS runs by a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Better run for NW NC compared to 18z with accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 off/over myrtle at 75, bombing off nc at 78, wnc getting smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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