NWNC2015

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Everything posted by NWNC2015

  1. need a clear banning system for IMBY ?'s and not just warnings/deletions 5 day ban for these questions when its 5 days out or more 4 day for day4 3 day for day3 et cetera
  2. FWIW....I expect some widespread ice. Duke Energy foresters Wesley Frick and Rick Owens came to the northern foothills after complaints of tree cutting 50-60feet instead of 10feet. Word of mouth says they expect damaging ice...in response to their ugly tree cutting practices downtown. One of my friends is county commissioner and I got some off the record briefing. The district manager of Duke also came in to talk. Full public article below. http://www.journalpatriot.com/news/tree-trimming-decried/article_a80eca86-bcb2-11e6-b09e-2b2da0cc428a.html
  3. Some of us care about upstream obs in north-west NC...and the northern foothills here are usually on par with his area. I'm sure he cares about warm noses too upstream or down however you wanna view it that scream up past Mount Airy w/ sleet and freezing rain.
  4. This is why you look at temps closer to the surface and the euro and not just the 540 line on the gfs. They even had to issue a special weather statement for Surry/Wilkes. If you want me to help you read soundings I can just shoot me a PM no problem I have plenty of educational links.
  5. Winter Storm Warning in Hawaii still
  6. Well without even going over to look, I am concerned this is not our typical polar air source track for the S/E. I believe it will moderate some and or be delayed. However, could still be cold enough for some winterwx before Christmas. image cred @crankywxguy
  7. The new drought map today didn't change for my backyard...if anything looks worse from here on east.
  8. SPC already highlighting Gulf Coast regions for Day 5. Maybe another event for some...but def. not in my backyard with CAD. Could see some tornado action along the southern pref. of this zone.
  9. Here is our day 4 setup going into western NC...where some wintry accumulations are becoming increasingly likely
  10. question what are the rules on bantering about medical...i see death is allowed...poop is out...but anyway had something totally different medical related i wanted to banter on thought i would ask before posting this time
  11. Front end mix still on the table...def. worth a chase if you wanna do some holiday shopping or looking for a Christmas tree this weekend in and around Boone. Travel shouldn't be too bad if 1-2" does occur I would expect it to be mostly on the grassy surfaces above 3,500ft. Probs are very high IMO for at least some wintry showers. Foothills...only looks cold enough as you go north-east into Wilkes/Surry...so don't expect much of anything southern/central foothills. Even here just a quick wintry mix to rain with a trace or dusting of mixture on elevated surfaces before melting. There may be a few mountain tops that see 2-4" but looks isolated at best and with much better chances of that in West Virginia.
  12. just got back from there tonight first day of december so they had the eggnog milkshake. it was good. wish they stayed open past 2am for euro watchers. their cheer wine floats however fail in comparison to Sheetz
  13. Little rotation in Davie County NC headed in the Winston-Salem area something to watch.
  14. BREAKING NEWS US DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE GOT HIM! Keith Franklin (49) faces charges up to 20 years in prison for setting two NC wildfires.
  15. 7 deaths confirmed in TN wildfires now per NBC
  16. NWFS only produces wind snow in the northern foothills with little to no accumulation. Suppose there have been 1-75 year NWFS that do produce 1-2".
  17. i will say this with all the wild fires smoke poop in the air I won't be eating the first snow. would not recommend anywhere in the southern Apps. air might be cleaner down east where Matthew went but u dont have to worry about snow there anyways
  18. give someone else a chance good grief jinx much
  19. I have nothing to post here until December so..?
  20. growing seriously worried but brief update on my winter forecast....really need the weekend system to put down a little ice snow before Christmas so I'm not wrong on front end and I am now thinking dry cold pattern will fizzle to mild rains even hot occasionally heart of winter if southern stream stays active through DJF..still think one storm 6" or more likely north of i40 west of i77 but that will about do it.thanks for reading
  21. should see some warnings for western NC and into the Piedmont areas today per Skype conference call below were some of the key points for locally damaging winds 1) morning temps are 30+degrees above average 2) already seeing warnings late this morning in the higher elevations of north-east TN and south-west VA
  22. i normally don't my hands just went crazy on touch screen hitting ****.foothills dont have a jersery mikes we just recently got a sheetz within the past 2 years
  23. Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... as of 430 am EST Wednesday... The focus during this period will be on a southern latitude system originating from a closed upper low over Mexico. There remain significant differences in how this system will evolve with the GFS still slow to bring the parent system out of Mexico, but now on board with what the European model (ecmwf) has been showing for several days, namely a northern stream system traversing the region Sunday into Monday. Models have been trending toward a weaker closed low and greater potential for northern stream energy to pick up the system sooner, thus forecast trends lean toward the faster European model (ecmwf) solution. These changes will result in chance pops being introduced in the southwest part of the County Warning Area Saturday night/early Sunday, increasing to likely Sunday, but then decreasing quicker back to chance or less by Monday. P-type may be a concern early Sunday with surface temps hovering in the 29f to 32f range and 850mb temps struggling to rise above zero. This would especially be true for areas where the precipitation arrives late Saturday night/early Sunday. At any rate, especially per ECMWF, warm air will begin to surge northward during the day changing any frozen/freezing precipitation to liquid. The caveat may be the potential for an "in-situ" wedge to develop and keep the threat for winter precipitation in the area longer, quite common at this time of year, and something the models are poor at resolving. Uncertainty continues for the remainder of the period as the GFS still has the parent upper low coming out of Mexico and bringing another swath of precipitation across the southeast/mid-Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, while the European model (ecmwf) has moved the entire system out of the region, leaving dry weather in place beyond Monday night. Have nudged the forecast toward the preferred European model (ecmwf).
  24. Went to Sheetz and got me a 12" meatball sub for $4 at 3am. Half of it is pictured. Freaking half a salad on top. Beats Subway. 6 gigantic balls of meat. 10/10
  25. 0z coming in a tick colder...not all snow but those areas need to watch out for wintry precip because of cold dry air near the surface.