eduggs Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That's still in clown range for the RGEM. With that said, it's a few hours of good snows, before my head is pelted in. I don't think the RGEM has a clown range, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A little snow, a round of sleet followed by some rain. Sounds like a lovely day. Get your measurements early. 39.0 .38" in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 What do think about New Hartford / Torrington / Harwinton CT. Most of my plowing accounts are in this area and most of them i go out on 2-3 inches. Close. Probably ends up more like 1-2" then a bunch of sleet, but it could end up in the 2-3" window if the colder solutions are right or we get one more cold tick tomorrow. I'd guess you'd have something to treat though between the snow and the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I don't think the RGEM has a clown range, no? The outer time ranges are relatively jumpy at times with the RgEM. It doesn't mean it's wrong, just making note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Close. Probably ends up more like 1-2" then a bunch of sleet, but it could end up in the 2-3" window if the colder solutions are right or we get one more cold tick tomorrow. I'd guess you'd have something to treat though between the snow and the sleet. Oh yeah ill at least make some money from sanding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Iceberg are you melting? Dryslot just reporting the model data. This will edge back and forth I'd bet, and of course you are in a more vulnerable spot, though I don't expect all snow here. Lol no he posted it 3 times in a row...must of been server glitch. Anyway, I don't melt until like VD. By then if my yard is still struggling all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I wonder what the odds are that any of us will have snow on the ground prior to the cooler air next weekend. MIght be iffy outside of Lunenburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I would go with 1-2 in northern CT with a decent amount of sleet and a light glaze of ice, highest amounts near the MA border, 2-3 in MA south of the pike, and 3-5 north of the pike with some spot 6 inches in N central and NE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I wonder what the odds are that any of us will have snow on the ground prior to the cooler air next weekend. MIght be iffy outside of Lunenburg. With temps into the 40's and 50's Wed and Thurs it will all melt south of NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I would go with 1-2 in northern CT with a decent amount of sleet and a light glaze of ice, highest amounts near the MA border, 2-3 in MA south of the pike, and 3-5 north of the pike with some spot 6 inches in N central and NE Mass.Somewhere between Andover-Lawrence-Haverhill will jackpot in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Still think the lower end of snow amounts is the way to go. There is so much warming aloft.If you're expecting 3-6 then 2-4 more likely.. 2-4 then 1-2 more likely etc.. Warmth aloft always comes in faster than models agree with this thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Already picked up 2" in round #1 and snowing at a mod clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Pinga's! sleet city? Dense pack on route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I've seen 20" of snow stick over ground after a week in the 60's ...granted, it thundered while it snowed and came down like lucifer's hammer... still, i've also seen 'first snow' of the season in octobers when the ground definitely was not frozen, stick... i don't think that statement is scientifically tested, and a-priori experience on the matter doesn't support soil temperature enough. i suppose if it was 100 F the day before, ...yeah...i guess. but you can almost intuit, if the soil temperature is say ... within some 25 F of the air, that argument fails all the time (or something like that) anyway, this still looks more like the majority of the qpf should fall as ice or cold rain (N-S), after 2-4 hours of front end snow. i tend to break this up into 3 sections in mind: the first 4 hours snow; the 2nd 4 hours ice; the 3rd 4 hours cold rain and/or mist, with deep interior regions holding out near freezing. but, if folks are focused just on snow ... this should certainly qualify as the first synoptic occurrence of the season - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 24 hours of below freezing Temps before 8t starts. It's gonna accum7late. My question is if NWS issues a watch or an advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think something like 3-6 is a good forecast for ORH-BOS corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 24 hours of below freezing Temps before 8t starts. It's gonna accum7late. My question is if NWS issues a watch or an advisory Ofcourse it's going to accumulate. I have to agree with Kevin on this one. It is rather comical that trained METS would even still use that disproven idea. The October Bomb in 2011 disproved and blew those warm ground ideas out of the water! And that was October nonetheless. It's now December, and we are just passed the solstice, warm ground ideas hold much less credibility now than in October. If it precipitates with any type authority, it accumulates... in October and especially in wintertime as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think something like 3-6 is a good forecast for ORH-BOS corridor. I dunno. Ground may be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southshorewx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I dunno. Ground may be too warm. Made me snort I laughed so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think something like 3-6 is a good forecast for ORH-BOS corridor.Man that's awfully bullish based on warm tongue. Hope you are right but it's going to have to snow 2 inches per hour to get anywhere near 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Man that's awfully bullish based on warm tongue. Hope you are right but it's going to have to snow 2 inches per hour to get anywhere near 6 Ahh yes. The classic weenie who focused on highest number in the range. I think that's a good start. It's a range. We'll see what the EC does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Man that's awfully bullish based on warm tongue. Hope you are right but it's going to have to snow 2 inches per hour to get anywhere near 6 But only 1" per hour to get to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ahh yes. The classic weenie who focused on highest number in the range. I think that's a good start. It's a range. We'll see what the EC does.What? If he didn't think 6 was possible he wouldn't have said it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 What? If he didn't think 6 was possible he wouldn't have said it . Get it?Why do you think intensity is the only variable that can change? Perhaps some areas N of the Pike hang on to S for a little longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Why do you think intensity is the only variable that can change? Perhaps some areas N of the Pike hang on to S for a little longer?Certainly possible. But for most in SNE it's only a 3-4 hour period of snow at best before sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro looks similar. Maybe a bit faster. Seems like 2-3 or so for Boston just by my crude maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Certainly possible. But for most in SNE it's only a 3-4 hour period of snow at best before sleet. The thing is, one hour means a lot. This has a very high warm tongue which is a negative. However, the high is in a classic spot to help overachieve even with a high warm tongue aloft. So it's a battle. We have another day to fine tune a couple of inches. My highest confidence is 2-4 for Boston proper, but if the warmth is delayed an hour, all bets are off. 3-6 can easily happen just inland where maybe the snow won't get as wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Euro has me about 3 inches. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The thing is, one hour means a lot. This has a very high warm tongue which is a negative. However, the high is in a classic spot to help overachieve even with a high warm tongue aloft. So it's a battle. We have another day to fine tune a couple of inches. My highest confidence is 2-4 for Boston proper, but if the warmth is delayed an hour, all bets are off. 3-6 can easily happen just inland where maybe the snow won't get as wet.Well then enjoy it. South of pike hopefully will get chances in Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The thing is, one hour means a lot. This has a very high warm tongue which is a negative. However, the high is in a classic spot to help overachieve even with a high warm tongue aloft. So it's a battle. We have another day to fine tune a couple of inches. My highest confidence is 2-4 for Boston proper, but if the warmth is delayed an hour, all bets are off. 3-6 can easily happen just inland where maybe the snow won't get as wet. He's being a typical weenie obsessing over the top end of the range while 48 hours out. If it trends a little warmer then 5-6" won't happen but if it trends slightly colder then it will. I'd probably lean more 3-4 at the moment after seeing the euro hold steady. But an extra 90 minutes of heavy snow can make a huge difference in these setups. (See 12/16/07) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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