Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Is that an rgem sounding? Progged 0z? Can you post 0z soundings for gfs and nam?Nah it's OKX 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Nah it's OKX 00z What's it got to do with rgem verifying best so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 all models gave NYC sleet, thats the OKX sounding This, If some cant have snow, Nobody should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 What's it got to do with rgem verifying best so far?Im not sure why you're so angry. You're still getting an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Im not sure why you're so angry. You're still getting an inch My wife may if it's a good night. I'm trying to get you to cop to making up that statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Im not sure why you're so angry. You're still getting an inchdoes not sound angry, next you will claim he is drunk. Nope maybe hes sick from shaking Rays hand, lol dude. If you are going to make claims, have evidence to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 NYC reports and 00z sounding See that blue line in between the red and green T and Td traces? That's the wet bulb temp. So when precip saturates that column it should be your new T/Td trace. Barring WAA (which we know is going to occur) that would be a snow sounding. Wet bulbing should take care of that warm nose, but it will eventually come back as WAA increases. What is happening around NYC is precip it being generated well aloft, partially melting in that warm nose, but evaporatively cooling in the dry layer below to result in sleet at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 So basically no snow during my 5:30 am commute tomorrow?It will be snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 How so? Can you give those details?He can't. Doesn't actually look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 It's definitely an intriguing forecast tonight, with conflicting signals about mixed precip. Typically you want elevated warm layer temps greater than 4oC and deeper than 1.5 km for FZRA. But this warm layer is nearly 1 km higher than normal. For PL you're looking for temps colder than -5oC is the cold layer, and almost 1 km deep (check and check). But if your warm layer is approaching +5oC or more you want cold layer temps closer to -10oC. I tend to think the low level cold overwhelms the other signals in this case, but if you elevate yourself just a little bit (effectively removing a chunk of the low level cold layer) ice could be a bigger issue. If we said say 750 feet or higher, that is like all of Cheshire, and the western halves of Hillsborough and Worcester Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 does not sound angry, next you will claim he is drunk. Nope maybe hes sick from shaking Rays hand, lol dude. If you are going to make claims, have evidence to back it up.Make claims or make things up. Time to start deleting the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 So so far all models are verifying... So we're still heading towards the event horizon lol. I guess what I'm saying is basically, if the GFS is trending colder and with greater snow totals, what empirical evidence do we have that the other models are more accurate? I get that the freezing rain/sleet solutions have more agreement between models, but what evidence do we have that suggests a warmer solution will occur? Current temps? Predicted temps? Current temps aloft? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Cold tuck tomorrow night on the nam. Too bad the model is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 So so far all models are verifying... So we're still heading towards the event horizon lol. I guess what I'm saying is basically, if the GFS is trending colder and with greater snow totals, what empirical evidence do we have that the other models are more accurate? I get that the freezing rain/sleet solutions have more agreement between models, but what evidence do we have that suggests a warmer solution will occur? Current temps? Predicted temps? Current temps aloft? Thanks Interestingly enough, there is no model that is handling the 850 mb temperatures down around OKX (they are too cold). The ARW is the closest. But this could also be a saturation issue, OKX was 0oC at 850 mb on the sounding, but unsaturated. A saturated model would have been colder. The models are also struggling with how cold 850 mb temps are over the ALY to BOS corridor. They are too warm by 2-3 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Crazy that so much uncertainty still exists! Will see what happens in 12 hrs, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Can someone post the SPC Mesoanalysis for 850mb and 2m temp contours? I can't get any overlays to generate on their northeast radar and SLP map using mobile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Cold tuck tomorrow night on the nam. Too bad the model is useless. A lot of models have this. I mentioned it for a couple of days. That could be a sneaky ice up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Interestingly enough, there is no model that is handling the 850 mb temperatures down around OKX (they are too cold). The ARW is the closest. But this could also be a saturation issue, OKX was 0oC at 850 mb on the sounding, but unsaturated. A saturated model would have been colder. The models are also struggling with how cold 850 mb temps are over the ALY to BOS corridor. They are too warm by 2-3 degrees. Send much colder here then they were calling for I'll say that much down here on long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Crazy that so much uncertainty still exists! Will see what happens in 12 hrs, I suppose.I mean there really isn't that much uncertainty it seems except for when the changeover occurs and if you're in Waltham it should be snowing at that hour of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Snowing in Brooklyn. Multiple reports of some snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Nice t-bone look to the radar...Shapiro and Keyser would be proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Nice t-bone look to the radar...Shapiro and Keyser would be proud. image.jpeg Well done, No pun intended......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 Well done, No pun intended......... lol sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 .10-.25" won't do it, .50-.75" is a start A NNE forester/naturalist who has studied forests for 40+ years said (in reference to the Jan 1998 disaster) that 20 mm was a workable threshold for when ice accretion went beyond culling the weak to major damage throughout the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 A NNE forester/naturalist who has studied forests for 40+ years said (in reference to the Jan 1998 disaster) that 20 mm was a workable threshold for when ice accretion went beyond culling the weak to major damage throughout the woods. Yeah, You get to that threshold (20 mm) and to 25 mm, That's a huge problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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