Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 When did they change? I thought they've been decent all season based on the thermal levels you can see.They were excellent last winter in pure snow events based on outputs. I think Ryan is talking about mixed events. The Earl Barker site Forky loves is pretty snowy on the GFS Orh to Bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Any thoughts on your colleague's icing forecast Ryan? Looks a bit aggressive. Whose forecast? I'm off today so a bit out of the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Isentropic thump. GFS at 12z tomorrow, ripping 40-50 knots up from the surface front south of LI to 750 mb by the time a parcel reaches BGR. 290K.jpeg Yup - that'll do it. Impressive omega for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Whose forecast? I'm off today so a bit out of the loop The new woman on your station, don't know her name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Looks like the GFS is going to go down with the ship...it blasts ORH-BOS northward in SNE with warning criteria snow. Still snow at 12z in both spots....this is an 18 hour forecast. 18z gfs and 18z nam are worlds apart They're both probably wrong because they both stink. Take the middle road. LOL. Does anyone have soundings to show what the GFS has for when the pingers move into GC? 22.6/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sounds like on the pike up north is where the worst of it will be, I get to drive around all day in it tomorrow at work. The first storm always brings out the worst drivers and all those that didn't opt for snow tires yet. Road treatments have little effect on heavy sleet. should be good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Will there be a fair bit of virga given the low dewpoints? If nothing else, I supposed that could further cool the column and maybe delay the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Huh--I didn't realize they had a watch up for out here. Spent the day in CT so missed out on all the fun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Will there be a fair bit of virga given the low dewpoints? If nothing else, I supposed that could further cool the column and maybe delay the changeover. For sure there will be. It's often why precip comes in like wall in there events, because they are preceded by cold and more importantly dry high pressure. Once the column is saturated enough to get snowflakes to the surface, omega is already strong enough to bring moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Quite the scalping at 12z tomorrow in HFD. Should be over to ZR by around 8 or so? That's some impressive low level cold on the HRRR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Quite the scalping at 12z tomorrow in HFD. Should be over to ZR by around 8 or so? That's some impressive low level cold on the HRRR! How long will HFD hold onto the ZR then? concerned about my commute in the am from DXR to HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 WaWaWachusett and Tolland Massif in the crosshairs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I'm sorry every guidance type I have seen absolutely IS too warm in the lower critical thickness depth ... i.e., < 1300 m I think the GFS is wrong to hold out snow that long. Best approach ...check ALY soundings and compare the periods with GFS sigmas... I'm currently trying to find the 18z soundes on the web. This is a steep polar wall, though ...and as mid level flow strengthens N of the elevated frontal slope, up glide will be rather upright ... penetrating the dendrite region of the sounding rather proficiently along a band from West of ALB to about BOS, and pretty proficiently For a time, but ...I think the Euro/NAM blend here is probably more accurate with what happens thereafter ...aloft. Not necessarily at the surface, where I feel very confident in warning criteria ice over the eastern slopes of the Berks and down rt 2 is plausible even after 2-4" burst of snow affects those regions. I think the new watch converts to warning and probably needs to come down Rt 2 a ways at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 For sure there will be. It's often why precip comes in like wall in there events, because they are preceded by cold and more importantly dry high pressure. Once the column is saturated enough to get snowflakes to the surface, omega is already strong enough to bring moderate snow. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Best ice event in SNE since 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 They were excellent last winter in pure snow events based on outputs. I think Ryan is talking about mixed events. The Earl Barker site Forky loves is pretty snowy on the GFS Orh to Bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Best ice event in SNE since 2008? meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 No way we are anywhere near 8-14" in the Greens with this, haha. That looks ridiculous overall in here and N.NH. Edit: Oh that's a 5-day total. Probably including some snow shower and upslope activity Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 No way we are anywhere near 8-14" in the Greens with this, haha. That looks ridiculous overall in here and N.NH. Those are forkys clown maps of choice, I think it includes upslope as its hitting those higher peaks on Katahdin and Mt Washington, Which I see he disappeared lol Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z RGEM precipitation types break down... And associated snow map that lines up with the p-type QPF spread...as far as weenie maps go, at least the RGEM one lines up with its forecast QPF amounts at various precipitation types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com FINAL CALL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Sort of makes me laugh that so many people loved using them for so long even though they were total garbage. Definitely a better look now. They were useful... if you put the temps aloft, and at the surface next to qpf at same time... so it took a little investigate work but verbatim they were useful to an extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 18z RGEM precipitation types break down... RGEM1.png And associated snow map that lines up with the p-type QPF spread...as far as weenie maps go, at least the RGEM one lines up with its forecast QPF amounts at various precipitation types. RGEM2.png Weenie maps that are from models that explicitly forecast ptype tend to be better, because the vendor could provide a ratio to each ptype to generate the map (10:1 for snow, 3:1 sleet, etc). Whatever they did at WeatherBell with the Euro is worlds better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com FINAL CALL Looks good--pretty close to what you've anticipated all along. It looks like you rightfully lowered the floor based on the recent data. Good luck with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Weenie maps that are from models that explicitly forecast ptype tend to be better, because the vendor could provide a ratio to each ptype to generate the map (10:1 for snow, 3:1 sleet, etc). Whatever they did at WeatherBell with the Euro is worlds better though.Do you know when they updated it? I just ask because it's been fine this season so far IMO.By far the worst offenders on WxBell are the GFSand NAM...which sucks because that's our own national models. We should be able to nail it down closer than just taking all frozen or freezing precip and turn it into snow accums. Like on the WxBell NAM maps, the p-type is all IP on the p-type product, but then you look at the snow product and it just converted all that IP into 10:1 ratio snow. It shouldn't be that hard to code that to only accumulate snow when then p-type algorithm shows snow, not IP or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 1-3" BOS 2-4" BED 3-5" LWM 1-3" HFD 1-3" CEF t-2" HVN 3-5" Keene, NH 3-5" Dendrite 3-5" PSM 1-3" PVD 2-4" HubbDave/Tip 1-3" Scott/CoastalWx t-2" Bob/Taunton 1-3" Kev/Tolland 3-6" PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Do you know when they updated it? I just ask because it's been fine this season so far IMO. By far the worst offenders on WxBell are the GFSand NAM...which sucks because that's our own national models. We should be able to nail it down closer than just taking all frozen or freezing precip and turn it into snow accums. Like on the WxBell NAM maps, the p-type is all IP on the p-type product, but then you look at the snow product and it just converted all that IP into 10:1 ratio snow. It shouldn't be that hard to code that to only accumulate snow when then p-type algorithm shows snow, not IP or ZR. Not sure, just saw that Ryan mentioned it today. It's really WeatherBell's problem, since they make the snow maps based on other fields. And even if NCEP did output snowfall as a field, I wouldn't really trust that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Spot on guess #'s 1-3" BOS actual guess 2" 2-4" BED actual 3" 3-5" LWM actual 4" 1-3" HFD actual 2" 1-3" CEF actual 3" t-2" HVN actual 1" 3-5" Keene, NH actual 5" 3-5" Dendrite actual 5" 3-5" PSM actual 4" 1-3" PVD actual 2" 2-4" HubbDave/Tip actual 4" 1-3" Scott/CoastalWx actual 2" t-2" Bob/Taunton actual 2" 1-3" Kev/Tolland actual 1" 3-6" PWM actual 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 1-3" BOS 2-4" BED 3-5" LWM 1-3" HFD 1-3" CEF t-2" HVN 3-5" Keene, NH 3-5" Dendrite 3-5" PSM 1-3" PVD 2-4" HubbDave/Tip 1-3" Scott/CoastalWx t-2" Bob/Taunton 1-3" Kev/Tolland 3-6" PWM Of course, the weenie in me is hoping for GFS snows. In reality, this looks reasonable. The one adjustment I'd make is to bump up Dendrite a tick or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 WaWaWachusett and Tolland Massif in the crosshairs? We prep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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